Luis Cessa Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Game update: Phillies-Reds will be delayed Sunday due to inclement weather

Luis Cessa struck out just one of 20 Red Sox in his lone start against them and he's struck out just 16.9% of batters over his seven starts, while LHBs have a 39.7 Hard% against him this year. That's certainly going to be a problem in Yankee Stadium and it might make David Ortiz (181 wRC+, .363 ISO vs RHP this season) the top overall bat tonight. This Boston lineup is projected to score five runs, though the high price tags often make it difficult to discern value unless we're looking at someone as overwhelmingly potent as Ortiz. One consideration for GPP players might be Andrew Benintendi (169 wRC+, .258 ISO vs RHP) costing about $3K on either site.

Luis Cessa has missed bats at a better rate than his 14.8 K% would suggest (10.4 SwStr%) and is in a high strikeout spot (Rays 25.3 K% at home, 24.1 K% vs RHP). They do have some power though (14.9 HR/FB vs RHP), homering four times against Tanaka last night. If he can put it all together, there might be shot here, but he’s struck out three or fewer in three of his last four and does nothing special with his batted ball or contact profile. There's also a significant drop off in the bottom half of this order after Dickerson. The strongest bats may be a bit over-priced here. Miller (122 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Longoria (134 wRC+, .268 ISO vs RHP this season) both cost at least $4.5K on DraftKings and $3.4K on FanDuel. They are the only two bats in the lineup with a wRC+ above 90 over the last week. There's not a lot to draw players to either side of this matchup.

The Red Sox have the highest run total of the night outside of Coors Field. They are the best team in the majors against right-handed pitching and take on a young, inexperienced pitcher in Luis Cessa. We can obviously use anyone from the Red Sox tonight, and a full stack in tournaments is more than viable, but they will likely be highly owned. Xander Bogaerts is the best value of the Boston bats, while the usual suspects of David Ortiz and Mookie Betts provide the upside needed in tournaments.

Reason # 1: Luis Cessa is only striking out 10% of batters over the last two weeks and is giving up a 41% fly ball percentage, paired with a 34% hard contact rate on at-bats that have ended in contact. Reason # 2: Cessa is giving up fly ball percentages over 35% to batters on both sides of the plate in recent starts while allowing slightly more hard contact to LHBs. Reason # 3: The Rays have three LHBs who are hitting the ball well over the last week, led by Logan Morrison, who has a 50% hard contact percentage in at-bats that ended in contact. Additionally, Kevin Kiermaier and Corey Dickerson both have greater than 30% of hard contact rates over that same period.

Luis Cessa has a 10.9 SwStr% since being inserted through the rotation, but has only been above average in one of his three starts. He has just a 15.2 K% combined from rotation and bullpen and faces a powerful offense (15.1 HR/FB on the road, 15.6 HR/FB vs RHP) in a park that may not be a highly positive run environment overall, but plays to their high power skillset. Cessa has split his nine HRs pretty evenly between RH and LH batters, though LHBs have a much higher 37.5 Hard% against him. The Blue Jays are costly and don't have a LHBs in the top five. Josh Donaldson (153 wRC+, .267 ISO vs RHP since last season) is a top 3B option most nights, but with a 4.7 run projection sitting closer to the middle of the board than the top and some lingering and unpredictable wind effects left over from Hurrican Hermine potentially hanging around Yankee Stadium tonight (check Kevin's update later), there are reasons to consider fading Toronto bats tonight.

Luis Cessa has many of the characteristics that get pitchers into trouble, including a 41% flyball rate allowed to righties, a 35% hard contact rate allowed to lefties, and a strikeout rate below 19% against both LHBs and RHBs. He has been able to offset some of these tendencies with a low flyball rate to lefties and a lower, 28%, hard contact allowed to RHBs. However, if Cessa has an off-night and gives up harder contact to lefties than he has so far in 30 innings, his 41% flyball rate could get him into trouble. If his hard contact to LHBs does increase, a likely beneficiary is Eric Hosmer. Hosmer has a 115 wRC+ this year against RHP and has made hard contact in 38% of at bats that have ended in contact when facing righties. While they will be playing in Kansas City, Hosmer's 103 wRC+ at home is comparable to his wRC+ of 102 in away games.

Luis Cessa was better than anyone had any right to expect in his first start in Anaheim. Most experts still eventually project him to eventually end up in the bullpen though and he returns home for a much tougher matchup with the Orioles. A .208 BABIP has kept his 4.02 overall ERA more than a half run below his estimators, so there's reason for concern tonight. Having faced just 100 major league batters, we don't have reliable splits yet, but they don't appear to be separated by too much. Chris Davis (116 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP this season) has a 158 wRC+ and 47.1 Hard% over the last week and is the obvious bat here, though the top seven all have a wRC+ above 110 against RHP this season and only Kim (142 wRC+) has an ISO below .200. He is also the only one in that group that costs less than $4K on DraftKings. Overall the Orioles have a 17.3 HR/FB vs RHP.