Luis Urias Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

It might be a bit odd to find five times above 4.9 implied runs on just a six game slate on Monday night, but weather is expected to play a large part around the league tonight. Even a normally substantially negative run environment like Citi Field could be a favorable spot for hitters tonight. Fenway and Wrigley are also forecasted to have very hitter friendly conditions, while Texas and Arizona could be hitter friendly environments with the roof open. We already know it will be in Arizona. Dodger Stadium may be the most negative run environment on the slate merely by playing neutrally. Then you factor in some quality offenses facing sub-standard pitching in those parks and we have one of the most hitter friendly slates of the year so far.

PlateIQ projections are really favoring the weather at Wrigley so far. Half of the top 10 projected bats in terms of overall point totals come from this game. After five straight starts with four strikeouts, Drew Smyly has struck out exactly five in two straight. Relying more on cutters (29.4%) and sinkers (26.5%) this year, a 48.4 GB% is a career high by five full points, sacrificing strikeouts (18.2%), but with the lowest walk rate of his career as well (5.3%). The ends result is a league average pitcher with a 4.08 ERA and all non-FIP estimators within one-quarter of a run. Regardless, batters from either side of the plate still exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Smyly since last season and Kevin’s forecast has the wind blowing out to left 20+ mph tonight. Andrew McCutchen (156 wRC+, .310 ISO) has mauled LHP since last season, while Luis Urias (112 wRC+, .204 ISO) and Mike Brosseau (116 wRC+, .194 ISO) have done some damage as well.

On the other side of this matchup, not only does Aaron Ashby have bat missing ability (11.8 SwStr%), but his 21.1 CStr% is second best on the board. However, he’s struck out 18 of 88 in a starting role, which is a far lower rate than 21 of 60 out of the pen. He’s also walked 16 of his 20 batters as a starter as well. The good news is that he’s had a ground ball rate of at least 70% in three of his four starts with a low of 53.3% and has allowed just three barrels all season (3.4%), just two as a starter. The Cubs are projected to bat entirely right-handed in game two and batters from that side are below a .280 wOBA and xwOBA against Ashby since last season. Again though, weather trumps all at Wrigley tonight. Willson Contreras (141 wRC+, .261 ISO), Patrick Wisdom (128 wRC+, .303 ISO) and Frank Schwindel (150 wRC+, .288 ISO) are all very dangerous bats in this spot.

The Red Sox (5.66) and Dodgers (5.76) top the board, along with the Brewers (5.66) as the only three teams above five and a half implied runs and those are the only other two teams with multiple batters appearing among the top 10 projections tonight. Tyler Wells seems to be a low upside pitcher (16.1 K%), who the Orioles have on a strict leash. He hasn’t hit the 80 pitch mark yet this season. However, immaculate control (3.9 BB%) and strong contact profile (19.6 IFFB%, 87.4 mph EV) have allowed him to get through five innings in four of his last six starts. RHBs have a .305 wOBA, but .333 wOBA against him in his career with LHBs below .300, but projections expect Rafael Devers (163 wRC+, .329 ISO vs RHP since LY) and J.D. Martinez (149 wRC+, .241 ISO) to tee off on him tonight.

Zach Thompson has struck out just eight of his last 56 batters with a sub-8.0 SwStr% in each of those three starts. There may be a reason he keeps getting moved to the pen. On a positive note, he’s recorded an average exit velocity above 90 mph in just two of his eight starts. While all estimators are more than half a run below his 5.50 ERA (59.6 LOB%), he doesn’t have one below four either. LHBs have a .330 wOBA and .324 xwOBA against him since last season with RHBs at .289 and .307, but projections favor the top three in the Dodger lineup anyway. Mookie Betts (145 wRC+, .249 ISO), Freddie Freeman (146 wRC+, .209 ISO) and Trea Turner (122 wRC+, .161 ISO) have all been so good it hardly matters.

Through two starts, Chase De Jong has struck out 10 of 43 with just a 7.8 SwStr% and 92.2 mph EV against the Rockies and Marlins, allowing three home runs last time out. In 64.1 career innings, he has just a 5.5 K-BB% with 14 home runs allowed. RHBs have actually hit more of those home runs (nine) with a .393 wOBA in fewer PAs (135), though RHBs haven’t done too bad either (.355 wOBA, five home runs, 154 PAs). That increases our interest in Milwaukee bats, who are clustered in that next group of four or five teams just below the four teams implied for more than five runs tonight. Luis Urias may be the value bat here. He has just an 84 wRC+ and .130 ISO vs RHP since last year, but has recently been moved into the leadoff spot with Kolten Wong hitting the IL and has a 131 wRC+ over the last month. Then, from the left side, Daniel Vogelbach has been hitting behind him and supplying the power (110 wRC+, .192 ISO). He has a 137 wRC+ over the last 30 days and carries a very similar price tag. The Milwaukee offense hasn’t been very good this year (81 wRC+ vs RHP), but in the right place and at the right price, they can have some daily fantasy relevance and this has the potential to be such a spot.

Peter Lambert has gotten shelled in the majority of his 17 starts this year as he has a 6.86 ERA, 5.15 xFIP and 5.42 SIERA with a 5.8% K-BB, 1.72 WHIP, 39.3% hard contact rate and just a 6.7% SwStr. Lambert does have a 47.8% GB rate, but it’s mostly for naught as he still gives up a ton of home runs (1.88 HR/9) and lacks swing-and-miss stuff as evidenced by the K-BB and SwStr. He’s also allowed a .361 xwOBA and 88.8 MPH aEV. Nick Martini (.345 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Eric Hosmer (.324), Manny Machado (.322), Luis Urias (.317), Josh Naylor (.316), Wil Myers (.312) and Austin Hedges (.268) are all potential options in the Padres’ projected lineup. Despite a healthy 6.50 implied total, 5 of 8 Padres’ hitters are under $4.3k on Draftkings. Greg Garcia (projected to leadoff, $4.2k), Nick Martini (projected 2nd, $4k) and Eric Hosmer (4th, $4.6k) all look like nice values, as well as both Urias and Hedges coming in under $3.5k and batting later in the order. Ty France has been the Padres’ hottest hitter with a .399 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, followed by Wil Myers with a .375 mark.

In 19 2/3 innings this year, Chi Chi Gonzalez has really struggled with a 5.95 ERA, 5.39 xFIP, 5.95 SIERA, 1.1% K-BB and 7.6% SwStr along with a .373 xwOBA allowed. Before being called up, Gonzalez had posted a 6.10 ERA / 5.32 xFIP over 87 innings in AAA. The Padres have swung the bats well recently with an 8th best 117 wRC+ over the past 2 weeks, and have some good options to choose from in their projected lineup for tonight. Luis Urias (.357 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Eric Hosmer (.334), Fernando Tatis Jr. (.326), Wil Myers (.323), Manny Machado (.323), Josh Naylor (.322) and Hunter Renfroe (.300) are all in play. Tatis has been scorching hot over the past 2 weeks with a .456 xwOBA. Wil Myers has also begun to swing the bat much better with a .375 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks. Myers is just $3.9k on Draftkings and is projected to bat 2nd. Josh Naylor ($3.5k) and Luis Urias ($2.9k) are also nice values on DK. You’ll have to pay up for Tatis ($5.6k) while Machado, Hosmer and Renfroe are all in the mid-$4k range. The Padres currently have a solid 5.09 implied total vs. Gonzalez and the Rockies.