Luke Voit Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

We have a very interesting nine gamer on Wednesday night with the Yankees and Padres virtually tied atop the slate with six run team totals and nobody else even close. With the Padres not being priced up nearly enough for Coors on either site, but especially DraftKings, current ownership projections (which are fluid and updated throughout the day) suggest about one-quarter of all lineups will include San Diego stacks, almost twice as popular as Yankee stacks are projected. Over on FanDuel, the Padres still project most popularly, but with a much narrower lead over the Yankees and no other stack in double digits. Simulations suggest that the Padres may also smash the slate slightly more often than the Yankees, but again, those are your top two teams, each within a couple of points of 15%. You can say a lot of things about the Yankees, but you can’t call them cheap. The Padres once again top value projections, still by a narrower margin over the Cubs on FanDuel, but much more overwhelmingly so on DraftKings, where they currently project for more than four times the value of any other stack. One of these teams projects better Leverage Rating than the other, but neither is a top three rated stack tonight. To find out who is and why that may be, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Because they are so affordable and have the top team run total on the board by more than a full run, San Diego stacks are currently projected to be in more than 25% of daily fantasy lineups on either site (although projections are fluid and updated throughout the day). They also smash the slate more than a quarter of the time and at least three times as often as any other stack in early simulations. The Value% projections for San Diego stacks are also off the charts. Everything comes up overwhelmingly Padres until we get to Leverage Ratings. It would be easy enough just to stack them and still be able to afford top priced pitching tonight and even though they aren’t the top rated stack, it’s still not a bad idea, but to find out which stacks do rate above them, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

With so much expensive pitching on the board and the Padres separating themselves from the rest of the board with a near seven run team total tonight, it’s mighty convenient that DraftKings has failed to price up San Diego bats for the occasion. MVP front runner Manny Machado (133 wRC+, .224 ISO vs LHP since 2021) is priced up nearly every night, but only one other batter in this projected lineup exceeds $4.3K on DraftKings tonight. PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and subject to change) suggest you’ll either have to drop to the bottom of the order (Jose Azocar 92 wRC+ last 30 days) or forfeit the platoon advantage (Eric Hosmer 99 wRC+ vs LHP since last year) for the most value in bats costing less than $3K, but Luke Voit (103 wRC+, .116 ISO vs LHP since last season) doubles as top overall projected bat and value for just $3.8K. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against Kyle Freeland since last season.

If it’s not the Padres, projections on either site suggest a lot of value bats in the Rangers/Tigers matchup, which is ironic, considering Jon Gray and Tarik Skubal are really pitchers you should consider using tonight at their current costs. However, the Rangers have done well against LHP (114 wRC+) and RHBs do have a .321 wOBA (.347 xwOBA) against Skubal since last season, while Charlie Culberson (132 wRC+, .166 ISO vs LHP since 2021) and Leody Tavares (34 wRC+) both cost the minimum, projecting as top six values on DraftKings currently. These two likely bottom of the order plays are more akin to punts that allow you to fill out the rest of your lineup.

Projections for FanDuel suggest some value on the other side of this matchup. Jon Gray has shown recent upside, but has been inconsistent and most of what we like about him is the matchup. However, there are price tags at which Detroit bats will have some value and FD appears to have found them. Austin Meadows (132 wRC+, .245 ISO), Victor Reyes (76 wRC+) and Javier Baez (81 wRC+, .183 ISO) all cost exactly $2.3K on FanDuel. Gray doesn’t really have much of a platoon split since last year with LHBs owning a .308 wOBA and .316 xwOBA against him, while RHBs have a .323 wOBA, but .302 xwOBA.

The Yankees get a great matchup at hitter-friendly Globe Life Park tonight vs. Joe Palumbo. Palumbo had decent numbers in the minors, but has really struggled over 6 games (3 starts) in the Bigs, coughing up a 9.22 ERA with a .381 xwOBA allowed. With Giancarlo Stanton back this Yankee lineup is looking as dangerous as ever, especially against lefties as the majority of the Yankees’ lineup will have the platoon advantage. Aaron Judge (.459 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), DJ LeMahieu (.416), Luke Voit (.396), Gleyber Torres (.375), Austin Romine (.355), Gio Urshela (.324), Didi Gregorius (.305) and Giancarlo Stanton (.417 xwOBA vs. LHP last year) are all great options tonight. Judge, Stanton and Voit all have an xwOBA over .400 over the past 2 weeks. On Draftkings only Stanton, Gregorius, Voit, Urshela and Romine are priced at $4.5k or less. Pricing is a bit more flexible on Fanduel, where Judge is the only NYY hitter over $4k. The Yankees currently have a juicy 7.00 implied total vs. Palumbo and the Rangers tonight.

Despite getting a good matchup in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre versus an unproven pitcher, Yankees bats are very affordable this afternoon. They’ll face T.J. Zeuch, who posted a 3.69 ERA / 5.38 xFIP with a 2.1% K-BB in AAA. Zeuch supposedly excels at inducing weak contact, which makes sense given his low ERA despite a terrible K-BB%, as well as his ridiculously high groundball rates in the minors. Maybe that’s sustainable in the minors, but I’m not sure a 2.1% K-BB will play in the MLB, especially against the free-swinging Yankees. Aaron Judge (.373 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Gio Urshela (.371), Luke Voit (.365), DJ LeMahieu (.362), Gleyber Torres (.342), Clint Frazier (.319), Brett Gardner (.316) and Didi Gregorius (.296) are all in play today vs. Zeuch. On Draftkings, all Yankee bats are $4.7k or less. With the exception of Aaron Judge, they are all less than $4.2k on Fanduel. LeMahieu (projected to leadoff, $3.8k on FD, $4.3k on DK) and Voit (projected to bat 5th, $3.7k on FD, $4.3k on DK) both stand out as great values. The Yankees currently have a 6.15 implied total, 2nd highest on the main slate.

Anthony Kay suddenly caught the walk bug after being traded to the Jays (13.8% in 36 AAA innings), while he had a rate below 9% through 97.2 prior AA & AAA innings this year. Strikeouts have been there and while he walked three in his major league debut, he also struck out eight of the 24 Rays he faced in his major league debut, despite just a 7.6 SwStr%. Kay is currently the fifth ranked prospect in the Toronto organization with a 45 Future Value grade according to Fangraphs with the expectation of a solid back end starter. Tonight will be his real initiation into the major leagues and particularly the AL East. The Yankees destroy LHP (119 wRC+ with a split high 20.5 HR/FB) and have actually been better on the road this season (123 wRC+, 19.8 HR/FB). Behind only the Coors participants tonight, there are three more teams between 6.1 and 6.2 implied runs tonight, a group that includes the Rays in Texas, the Astros facing another marginal lefty (Danny Duffy) and these Yankees. That Encarnacion and Sanchez went down with injuries against on Thursday only leaves room for Giovanny Urshela (130 wRC+, .260 ISO vs LHP), Gleyber Torres (122 wRC+, .237 ISO) and Luke Voit (130 wRC+, .211 ISO) in the top half of the order along with DJ LeMahieu (183 wRC+, .257 ISO) and Aaron Judge (189 wRC+, .295 ISO). Amazingly, only LeMahieu is above $4.6K on DraftKings, making this lineup an affordable stack tonight.

Sean Manaea will be making his first start of the year this afternoon after dealing with a shoulder injury for the majority of 2019. Although he did look very good in 5 rehab starts in the minors (3.21 ERA / 2.97 xFIP over 28 innings pitched in AAA) you have to think Manaea will be shaking off some rust in his first start back. Facing a stacked Yankees lineup at Yankee Stadium is a tough spot to be shaking off rust. Despite dealing with injuries all year, the Yankees have continued to swing the bats well and have plenty of good options in their lineup for this matchup: Aaron Judge (.480 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), DJ LeMahieu (.430), Luke Voit (.394), Gleyber Torres (.355), Mike Tauchman (.346), Gary Sanchez (.329), Clint Frazier (.323) and Didi Gregorius (.302) are all in play here. Only Judge ($5.2k) and LeMahieu ($5.1k) are over $5k in the NYY lineup on Draftkings. Sanchez ($4.6k), Gregorius ($4.5k), Voit ($4.5k), Frazier ($4.3k) and Tauchman ($4.1k) all look like nice values. Yankees bats will also have the advantage of an extra hitter-friendly umpire in Stu Scheurwater. The Yanks currently have a healthy 5.79 implied line vs. Manaea and the A’s this afternoon.

Any effectiveness from Brett Anderson stems from the fact that he keeps the ball on the ground (53.1%) in a great park. This is a terrible spot for him though. In fact, it’s a major surprise to see the Yankees trailing five teams tonight at 5.87 implied runs. It’s certainly a park downgrade for Anderson, who has just a 12 K% with a 5.27 SIERA, 5.56 DRA, and .348 xwOBA with 40.6% of his contact above 95 mph. Over the last calendar year, RHBs own a .334 wOBA, but an xwOBA quite a bit higher (.362) with a dip in ground ball rate (49.2%). The Yankees are loaded with right-handed power, especially with Luke Voit (165 wRC+, .333 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) returning tonight. Heck, the Yankees have even turned DJ LeMahieu (185 wRC+, .290 ISO) into a power hitter. Along with Aaron Judge (197 wRC+, .344 ISO) catching fire (271 wRC+, 70.6 Hard% last seven days), this is a lineup that should be very problematic for Anderson in this spot. Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres and Giovanny Urshela all exceed a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO against lefties over the last 12 months as well.