Matthew Boyd Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Tinkerer of things that don’t necessarily need to be fixed, Rob Manfred has decided to deaden the baseballs prior to the 2021 season after having denied any livening effect over the last few years. According to a recent ESPN article just before the start of Spring Training, the anticipated result is a “1 to 2 feet shorter on balls over 375 feet”. One intended effect is more balls in play. Also from the article, “five more teams plan to add humidifiers to their stadiums”, bringing the total up to 10 parks. Did you even know that Fenway, Safeco and Citi Field added humidifiers last year? Neither did most fans. To make things even more difficult, the MLB memo did not name the five additional parks gaining humidors this year.

What does all this mean? Home run rates should decrease, making fly ball pitchers less risky/more valuable for daily fantasy players. Matt Boyd is the name that immediately comes to mind with a 41.5 FB% and 19.7 HR/FB last year. The effect shouldn’t be overwhelming, but be aware when relying on recent park factors early on. The guys who blast the ball over the wall are still going to get theirs, but lineups may not have guys in the eight or nine slots capable of hitting 20 HRs this year.

Matthew Boyd has been sitting for over a week, but finds a nice spot for a return in Pittsburgh. Last year, he accumulated a ton of strikeouts (30.2%), but was derailed by the 39 HRs he allowed (18.2 HR/FB). He’s allowed just one through 10 innings (despite a 25.7 GB%), yet still eight runs and has struck out only eight of 47 batters (10.7 SwStr%). The spin on his four seamer and slider are down a bit and he has a .412 BABIP due to a 40% line drive rate so far. Let’s not read too much into 10 innings though. He’ll be facing a Pittsburgh offense that was terrible against LHP last year (76 wRC+, 10.8 HR/FB) and has been awful this season overall (62 wRC+, 16.8 K-BB%). Concern about right-handed power is essentially non-existent in this lineup and park. While several Pittsburgh bats may be worth a look because they are very cheap, this is a spot where Boyd, at $7.9K on FanDuel, can be a top value tonight.

Matt Boyd has had a dominant breakout season that has seen him post a 3.33 xFIP, 3.23 SIERA, 32.5% K Rate, 5.3% BB rate and 14.2% SwStr. Boyd also has just a .284 xwOBA allowed and an 87.7 MPH aEV. Boyd has been especially locked in over the past 30 days, posting a 38% K rate, 2.87 SIERA, 2.63 xFIP, 16.1% SwStr and a .259 xwOBA allowed. Boyd gets a matchup vs. the Rangers in Globe Life Park tonight. The Rangers are a pretty lackluster offense without Joey Gallo, but the environment isn’t ideal as Globe Life Park is a very hitter friendly park. Fortunately, the Rangers have just a 94 wRC+ and 25.6% K rate over the past 30 days, and they have just an 88 wRC+ and 26% K rate vs. LHP on the year. They have just two batters in their projected lineup who have an xwOBA greater than .325 vs. LHP in 2019. Also working in Boyd’s favor will be a very pitcher friendly umpire in Eric Cooper. Boyd isn’t as safe as usual pitching in Globe Life Park, but we’re getting a bit of a discount on his price as a result, and he might see lower than usual ownership on him especially with other decent options on this slate. He also has plenty of upside given his ability to miss bats (especially over the last 30 days) and the Rangers’ K rate vs. LHP.