Matt Carpenter Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

There is some concern about conditions in Philadelphia, but barring a PPD, those conditions seem to be favorable for left-handed power hitters (winds out to RF at 10 mph). Adam Wainwright has walked nine of his last 46 batters, has just a 6.5 SwStr% and 90.3 Z-Contact% on the season and his ERA with all of his estimators are within a quarter run of five. He has a 17.4 HR/FB and LHBs have a .363 wOBA with a 39.8 Hard% against him over the last calendar year. Bryce Harper (122 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has gone cold again, but his 24 wRC+ over the last week comes with a 46.7 Hard%. Making hard contact is not a problem for him. Making contact is, but this could be a good matchup with him considering Wainwright’s inability to miss bats at this point in his career.

Nick Pivetta frustrated the Phillies enough to send him down after four starts (at least three runs in no more than five innings in all four) with just a 17.2 K%. He doubled that (33.1%) in six AAA starts (though he walked 13.3% too). Pivetta also allowed five HRs in those four starts and 54 in 315.1 big league innings in his career. His split numbers haven’t been very consistent, but over the last calendar year, LHBs have torched him for a .383 wOBA. Matt Carpenter (137 wRC+, .253 ISO) has a 221 wRC+ over the last week, as the Cardinals have dropped him in the order. Unfortunately, he’s the only LHB on the roster above a .165 wRC+ vs RHP over the last 12 months. Kolten Wong (115 wRC+, .164 ISO) is next best.

Mike Foltynewicz does have a league average 10.3 SwStr%, but just a 14.3 K% through five starts. Ironic for a pitcher who was well above a 2.5 K/SwStr last season. He’s not fooling anybody with a 45.3 Z-O-Swing%, resulting in a 10.5% Barrels/BBE and .357 xwOBA that’s still 25 points below his actual results so far. His ERA along with all of his estimators are well above five.

Miles Mikolas had been pitching well before getting thumped for seven runs in Texas last time out. His 16 K% dictates reliance on excellent control (4.3 BB%) and quality contact management, though the latter has only been about league average this year and resulted in an 18.5 HR/FB this year. While only three of his seven HRs have come at home and all three of those in one start, in a normally run and power suppressing park, weather conditions are expected to give offenses a boost in St Louis tonight (Weather Edge is available to premium subscribers).

Unfortunately, this is not as sneaky a spot as we would hope to look for offense with the Cardinals implied above five runs tonight. Matt Carpenter (140 wRC+, .164 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) should certainly be a target against a pitcher who had struggled against LHBs before breaking out last year. The Braves, however, are right around 4.2 runs. This is a spot where we can look at some of their LHBs as well (.329 wOBA vs Mikolas last calendar year). Freddie Freeman (138 wRC+, .202 ISO) has caught fire with a 191 wRC (53.6 Hard%) over the last week. Nick Markakis (119 wRC+, .153 ISO) doesn’t have the upside, but is affordably in the middle of this lineup on most nights. While Mikolas has smothered RHBs (.238 wOBA, .269 xwOBA, 27.1 Hard%, 52.9 GB%), conditions appear to make a talent like Ronald Acuna (137 wRC+, .229 ISO) in play as well. He leads the team with a 65.2 Hard% over the last week.

The Cards get a juicy matchup with the Rangers on a warm day in Arlington where the ball should really be carrying Sunday afternoon. They’ll face Drew Smyly, who has had a miserable start to the year but somehow still has a rotation spot. Smyly has a 6.85 ERA / 5.42 xFIP / 5.03 with an ugly 14.2% BB rate, 56.5% hard contact rate and just a 26.1% GB rate. Smyly also has a .380 xwOBA allowed with a 90.5 aEV and 10.1% barrel rate. Once Smyly is chased from the game, Cardinals’ hitters will face a Texas bullpen that has a 3rd worst 5.02 xFIP on the year. Cardinals projected top 6 batters in order: Matt Carpenter (.370 xwOBA vs. LHP since 2018), Paul Goldschmidt (.411), Paul Dejong (.318), Marcell Ozuna (.396), Jose Martinez (.416), Yadi Molina (.365). Jose Martinez (.457 xwOBA over the past 14 days) Dexter Fowler (.424) and Paul Dejong (.406) have been the Cardinals’ hottest hitters. All projected Cardinals starters with the exception of Kolten Wong, have an xwOBA > .310 over the past 14 days. St. Louis has a 6.02 implied line vs. Smyly and the Rangers in Arlington this afternoon.

The Cardinals are in Arlington tonight to face the Rangers, who project to use Jose Leclerc as an opener and then likely Adrian Sampson in long relief. Sampson has nothing in his profile that suggests he’s any good; for his career he has a 5.09 ERA / 5.97 xFIP / 5.14 SIERA with an 8.7 K-BB%. In 2019 Sampson has a 47.5% hard contact rate, just a 36.4% GB rate, a .398 xwOBA allowed and a 12.3% barrel rate. Sampson doesn’t figure to last long in this game, and the Rangers terrible bullpen (5.00 xFIP, 7.8 K-BB% in 2019) gives Cardinals batters even more upside. St. Louis has been hot with the 3rd best xwOBA of any team over the past 10 days (.371). Matt Carpenter (129 wRC+, .248 ISO vs. RHP since 2018), Paul Goldschmidt (138 wRC+, .226 ISO), Paul Dejong (123 wRC+, .209 ISO), Marcell Ozuna (103 wRC+, .172 ISO) and (Jose Martinez (125 wRC+, .140 ISO) project to be the top 5 batters for STL, in that order. Jose Martinez has been the Cards’ hottest hitter with a .460 xwOBA over the past 10 days. Matt Carpenter (.372) has seen the ball well after a rough start to 2019 and might be the best value in the lineup, projected to hit leadoff at just $4k on Draftkings. The Cardinals have a whopping 6.32 implied total vs. the Rangers in hitter-friendly Globe Life Park tonight.