Matthew Liberatore Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

This is a very difficult pitching board beyond the top two tonight, but what does give it some hope is advantageous (at least to pitchers) weather in some spots. In fact, though the wind isn’t blowing in that forcefully at Wrigley, Weather Edge still suggests a substantial offensive downgrade, which helps Matthew Liberatore currently project as a top two point per dollar value on either site tonight. He has walked five of his first 44 major league batters and while his 21 CStr% is highest on the board, his nine strikeouts come with just a 4.4 SwStr%. The Pirates barreled him three times in his first start, but the Brewers not at all in his second. His AAA numbers are quite impressive with a 17.3 K-BB% in 124.2 innings last season and a 21 K-BB% in seven starts this season. He currently carries a 50 FV grade on Fangraphs, which generally notes a middle of the rotation arm. The Cubs have a 103 wRC+, 23.7 K% and 15.0 HR/FB vs LHP, which would be more problematic with more hitter friendly weather, since Liberatore has posted sub-40% ground ball rates at AAA, but should be less of an issue tonight. Liberatore costs $8K or less on either site.

The only pitcher who exceeds Liberatore’s point per dollar projection via PlateIQ (which is fluid and subject to change) tonight is Alex Wood, who is only available on FanDuel in Miami. While all of his rate stats are fine (15.9 K-BB%, 49.6 GB%, 7.7% Barrels/BBE), he hasn’t completed six innings in a single start this year, which really hinders his shot at a Quality Start tonight. His 4.81 ERA is well above estimators (.360 BABIP) with only a 4.37 xERA above four. The Marlins have an atrocious 78 wRC+ and 29.7 K% vs LHP.

Tonight’s slate gets really tough on either site beyond that. You may even be considering guys like Chris Flexen and Jordan Lyles in Baltimore in your secondary slots on DraftKings. The former has somehow turned a 9.3 K-BB% and 11.1% Barrels/BBE into four Quality Starts in nine tries. Even with a 4.47 ERA, all estimators are higher, but the O’s have a 97 wRC+ and 22.3 K% vs RHP with just an 8.9 HR/FB at home this year. The latter is actually in the middle of a pretty respectable season. His 13.7 K-BB% and 7.9% Barrels/BBE are both perfectly average and he has four Quality Starts in his last six tries. A 4.63 xERA is his only estimator above a 4.26 ERA. The matchup is more difficult though (113 wRC+, 22.1 K% vs RHP). Both cost less than $7K on DraftKings.