Merrill Kelly Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Jacob deGrom is the EST of MLB tonight. The highEST costing and the bEST projecting overall and in terms of value on either site, but there may be lineups where you may not want to pay well over $11K and even if you do on DraftKings, you may be looking for a much cheaper SP2, so let’s try to find the best values behind deGrom. Five of the top seven projected FanDuel values cost $8K or less tonight, but are these single site pitchers? Reid Detmers projects as a top four value on either site for less than $8K. He’s a late addition to this slate, but has struck out just eight of his last 70 batters. He had issues missing bats earlier in the season that seemed to improve after a short trip to the minors, but have now cropped up again to end the season. He’s also in a very difficult spot (Rangers 116 wRC+, 22.8 K%, 16.5 HR/FB vs LHP this year). He may be a difficult roster even on a two pitcher site at this point.

Domingo German has produced six Quality Starts over his last eight, but that’s mostly due to a .232 BABIP and 79.5 LOB%. The only real problem in his profile though, is that he’s not striking batters out this year (18%). He does have a perfectly average 10.6 SwStr% with great control (5.6 BB%) and has even only allowed 12 barrels (6.3%), so perhaps there’s hope, but all estimators are more than half a run above his 3.30 ERA with a 3.84 xERA the only one within a run. Yankee Stadium is not a positive run environment and the weather is expected to be pitcher friendly, which makes German somewhat interesting in a matchup against the Orioles (103 wRC+, 22.2 K% vs RHP). The Yankees have nothing to play for, but he may be pitching for a post-season role. Still, we’re probably more comfortable with German as an SP2, though he’s more expensive and projects as a worse value on DraftKings.

Aaron Civale is another very late addition to this slate. He projects as a better value on FanDuel too, despite only a $100 difference in cost. Civale has a more than respectable 17.4 K-BB% and early season contact issues have settled down with just four over his last eight starts, but only worked his way up to 75 pitches in his second start back from the IL. Cleveland just wants to get him ready for post-season play here and the matchup is not even very high upside (Royals 90 wRC+, 21.8 K%). Civale may still be fine for the price, but the ceiling is probably capped.

Costing $300 less on DraftKings, Alex Cobb still projects as a much better FanDuel value for exactly $8K. He has just a 20.4 K% over his last seven starts, bringing his season rate down to 23.7%, but by underlying numbers, it’s been a great season. Cobb has kept 61% of his contact on the ground, allowing just 3.7% Barrels/BBE and all estimators are more than four-tenths of a run below his 3.67 ERA. The Diamondbacks have a 96 wRC+ and 21.9 K% vs RHP and there is nothing at stake in this game. Again, fine in an SP2 spot, but lacking the upside of more expensive pitchers tonight.

For less than $8K, Jack Flaherty projects as a top third of the board value on either site, but this is mostly due to name value. Even the few times he’s been kind of good (like striking out nine Padres last time out), he still hasn’t been very good (walking four Padres with a 90.9 mph EV). It was the first time he’s completed six innings all year, while a 4.3 K-BB% and all estimators except for a 4.67 DRA suggest things should actually be worse than his 4.97 ERA. He’s walked six of the 38 Pirates he’s faced this year, while striking out only three. Can he? Sure. Should you expect him to? Probably not.

On the other side of that game though, Johan Oviedo does not have a problem missing bats (24.9 K%, 11.9 SwStr%) and has managed contact well (87 mph EV, 5.6% Barrels/BBE), but does have a tendency to lose the strike zone (10.7 BB%). He completed six innings (actually seven) for the first time last time out and it took extreme efficiency to do so (three hits, no walks and seven strikeouts against the Cubs). The great news is that a 3.02 xERA is even lower than his 3.11 ERA, though all other estimators are at least half a run higher. There will certainly be the “revenge” motive against a team that has nothing left to play for this weekend. It’s a great park with great pitching weather and Oviedo costs just $6K on DraftKings. Also potentially underpriced on DraftKings and much cheaper than they are on FanDuel, Merrill Kelly is up to 25.9 K% and 19.0 K-BB% over his last 12 starts (22.2% and 14.7% on the season). He’s also completed seven innings in 11 of his last 18 starts (less than two innings just twice). The Giants have a 98 wRC+ and 23.6 K% vs RHP. Joe Ryan has pushed his strikeout rate up to 24.7%, but a ground ball rate that’s just slightly higher (27.7%) has resulted in 34 barrels (8.9%), although he’s also generated just as many infield flies (33), which puts his 3.70 ERA in line with a 3.63 xERA. He’s in Detroit (74 wRC+, 24.7 K%, 7.5 HR/FB vs RHP).

Joe Musgrove struck out a season high 11 Giants last time out after striking out just two in his previous start. His previous season high of 10 occurred one start after he struck out a single batter. Musgrove makes it a point to bounce back strong from his poor starts. Not that he’s had many this year with a 3.01 ERA and estimators ranging from a 3.14 xERA to a 3.38 FIP not too far above. Musgrove combines great peripherals (19.6 K-BB%) with an extraordinary contact profile (86.5 mph EV, 5.6% Barrels/BBE, 32.4% 95+ mph EV), while pitching deep into games (six innings or more in 20 of 24 starts). The Diamondbacks have just a 96 wRC+, but with a mere 21.2 K% and 12.0 HR/FB vs RHP. They’ve also injected some exciting young blood into the lineup recently and may be a bit better than their overall numbers. Musgrove is tonight’s fifth best projected pitcher and sixth best DK value (eight on FD).

Brandon Woodruff has allowed multiple home runs more often (three times) than he’s struck out more than five (twice) over his last six starts. He still has a 21.5 K-BB% on the season (16.9% over his last six starts) and neither home runs (10.8 HR/FB), nor barrels (7.7%) have been season long issues, but it’s never really felt like he’s gotten going this season. His 3.54 ERA is slightly above all estimators, ranging as low as a 3.18 DRA. Woodruff is a fastball thrower (sinker & four-seam 60.9% & -5 Run Value comabined) and the Rockies (81 wRC+, 21.8 K% vs RHP) are the sixth worst offense in the league against fastballs (-0.31 wFB/C). In addition, the Rockies have a 46 wRC+ and 26.9 K% over the last week, but Woodruff is one of the few pitchers not dealing with pitcher friendly conditions tonight (weather), on top of having to pitch at Coors. Woodruff still projects just inside the top 10, but as a middle (DK) to bottom (FD) of the board value.

Merrill Kelly’s 2.84 ERA is well below estimators ranging from a 3.09 FIP to a 3.97 SIERA, but beyond his contact profile (34.8% 95+ mph EV) the strikeout rate appears to be evolving as well (26.1% with a 20.2 K-BB% over his last eight starts). This is not a small sample either, as Keely has gone at least seven innings in six of those starts and at least six innings in 16 straight. The Padres have been perfectly average against RHP (101 wRC+, 21.9 K%) and Juan Soto hasn’t done much to change that yet. None the less, Kelly projects as just a middle of the board arm and bottom of the board value, though projections could be slightly under-valuing him here if the strikeout spike is real.

High upside matchups, as determined by opposing team strikeout rates, on tonight’s slate belong to Bailey Ober (at Mariners), Ian Anderson (vs Red Sox) and Justus Sheffield (vs Twins). Unfortunately, a lot of the better matchups belong to afternoon slate or top of the board pitchers. We may not find much here. While five of nine projected Twins have a 25 K% or higher against LHP since 2020, the team still has a 112 wRC+ and 17.5 HR/FB against southpaws this year and Sheffield doesn’t have enough upside to be rosterable here. To add to his woes, which see a 4.75 xFIP as his best estimator, his velocity dropped off a mile per hour last time out, as he lasted just four innings against the Tigers and allowed two home runs. He has just three more strikeouts than walks over his last five starts and has allowed 10.8% Barrrels/BBE this year.

The Red Sox are not a team we’re expecting to see on this list, but we’re also stretching things a bit today, while realizing the Sox lose the DH in Atlanta, so five of eight projected batters (along with the pitcher’s spot) exceed a 25.5 K% vs RHP since 2020. Anderson’s 15.6 K-BB% isn’t much above league average, hence the 3.91 SIERA. Even with a favorable contact profile that includes an 87.1 mph EV and 53.8 GB%, his 3.87 xERA isn’t much better. While those are the worst of his estimators, all are at least slightly above his 3.26 ERA. Anderson is a marginal choice for $8K or less here, perhaps not as good as perceived, but also potentially in a better matchup than perceived as well.

Bailey Ober is the most interesting arm here. has acquitted himself well in three starts against the White Sox, Royals and Astros, striking out 15 of 57 batters (seven of them against the Astros last time out) with just two walks. He’s also allowed three home runs with just a 21.1 GB%, 90.6 mph EV and 9.7 SwStr%. Scouting reports suggest a future in the bullpen with his biggest assets being his size and funky delivery. This is less about him though and more about the matchup and cost. The Mariners have a 90 wRC+ and 26.2 K% vs RHP. While only three batters in the projected Seattle lineup exceed a 24 K% vs RHP since last year, all three also exceed a 30 K%. Ober may be the ideal SP2 punt play on DraftKings ($4.6K) on a board where 25% of the arms cost $9.6K or more.

FanDuel pitchers could also consider Merrill Kelly in San Francisco. With only one projected batter above a 24.2 K% vs RHP since 2020, it doesn’t seem like a favorable spot and the Giants do have a 102 wRC+ vs RHP this year, but also have a 26.5 K% vs RHP in 2021. Kelly costs just $6.4K on FD and has struck out at least six in six of his last eight starts. As a matter of fact, he’s struck out exactly six in five of those with a 12 K outlier against the Dodgers. His season rate still sits at a below average 21.2% (9.0 SwStr%), though he’s walked just 6.5% and has estimators right around four. The Diamondbacks are willing to let Kelly eat innings too. He’s recorded sixth inning outs in 10 of 13 starts.