Michael Conforto Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Finding the value bats on this nine game board is not as easy as it has been the last few days, though a couple of Boston bats still qualify (Bobby Dalbec, Jose Iglesias). It also may not be as necessary with less of a need to pay up for extremely high priced pitchers. One spot we can to for some of these cheaper bats is ironically the same one we might be looking to for lower priced GPP arms at Citi Field. Edward Cabrera has shown some upside, striking out 13 of his last 36 batters, but the contact profile is a mess, including a 9.18 xERA with batters from either side of the plate above a .400 xwOBA against him. The Mets have a middling 4.41 implied run line in a negative run environment, but you might be surprised to learn that each of the first six batters in the projected lineup exceeds a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this year with only Brandon Nimmo (131 wRC+, .147 ISO) below a .185 ISO. And at $3.2K or less out of the leadoff spot, Nimmo is still one of the top values on the board. Another one would be Michael Conforto (118 wRC+, .203 ISO), who crushed a 469 foot homer last night and costs less than $3K on either site. Francisco Lindor (107 wRC+, .187 ISO) is the only batter in the projected lineup costing more than $4K on DraftKings.

When we refer to ownership in daily fantasy, it generally means the percentage of lineups a player appears or is expected to appear in, but in baseball, in a broader sense, it could also pertain to an extremely one sided batter/pitcher matchup. Trevor Story would certainly qualify for Madison Bumgarner ownership with five HRs in 43 PAs, but he’s also struck out in 37.4% of those attempts with a marginally above average .347 xwOBA. We also have to consider the Coors component of that matchup which won’t be present tonight. That’s certainly not to suggest that Story is a suboptimal play tonight, but likely one that won’t under the radar at all.

Filtering Baseball Savant’s Daily Matchup page for at least 15 PAs, two of the top four xwOBA marks belong to Joey Votto vs Jake Arrieta (.582 with four XBH in 24 ) and Michael Conforto vs Chase Anderson (.484 with three HRs in 20 PAs). Moving outside that vacuum, these may be strong team spots against these pitchers too. Anderson has already faced the Mets twice this season with decent results (4 ER in 9 IP) and we have to remember his reverse split (RHBs .367 wOBA, LHBs .307 wOBA since 2019), but that does more to boost RH power than demerit LH power. And while the Mets have struggled this year, each of the first seven batters in the projected lineup exceed a 110 wRC+ and .170 ISO vs RHP since 2019. Another potentially attractive factor is the wind conditions in the north east tonight. Several spots call for strong gusts and while Kevin’s forecast believes them to be mostly left to right, if that shifts a bit, it could boost LH power out to RF in a very power friendly park already. Conforto started the season ice cold, but has been hitting the ball a bit better lately and still costs less than $3K on FanDuel.

Finally, you certainly want to load up on a lineup with LH power in maybe the most power friendly park against Jake Arrieta at this point in his career. Since 2019, LHBs have a .367 wOBA and .374 xwOBA against him and this year, his ground ball rate is down to 35.4% overall. The 2.57 ERA is fraudulent with just an 8.7 SwStr% and 9.4 BB%. All of his non-FIP estimators are above four and potentially even higher if his strikeout rate drops from 22.2%. In addition to Votto (112 wRC+, .199 ISO vs RHP since 2019), Jesse Winker (146 wRC+, .275 ISO) and Mike Moustakas (114 wRC+, .265 ISO) are even bigger threats here. Both the Reds and Mets find themselves on the top third of the board, around four and a half implied runs tonight.

For the sake of his career, let’s hope that Garrett Richard’s claim that his struggles may be due to cold weather are at least partially true because it’s been ugly. On top of a mile per hour velocity dip, he’s struck out one fewer than he’s walked (-1.2 K-BB%). He’s only allowed two HRs and Barrels (3.5%), but that may just be some good luck with an average ground ball rate and 91.1 mph EV. On the other side, Mets’ bats may not be the most popular tonight. Their 4.6 implied run line is strong, but not all that close to the top of the board, Citi Field is a well-known negative run environment and only three of eight projected starters are above a 100 wRC+ this season. However, Michael Conforto (144 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP since 2019) is starting to heat up (99 wRC+ on the season now) and costs less than $4K on either site (less than $3K on FD) and the three above average hitters have been well above average hitters: Brandon Nimmo (177 wRC+), Pete Alonso (149 wRC+) and J.D. Davis (223 wRC+). Each of the first seven projected batters exceed a 110 wRC+ and .180 ISO vs RHP since 2019. That the Mets also usually offer a well-balanced lineup plays in their favor too here, as batters from either side of the plate sit between a .326 to .348 wOBA and xwOBA against Richards since 2019, according to Statcast.

Jake Arrieta has dragged his ground ball rate up to 50.4% on the season, but with just a 7.9 K-BB% and 8.3% Barrels/BBE (89 mph EV). His 5.54 ERA is well below his 6.11 xERA, but well above all other estimators due to a .328 BABIP and 66.7 LOB%. It only gets as optimistic as a 4.42 xFIP though. The Mets have a 129 wRC+, 21.6 K% and 17.9 HR/FB vs RHP. The upper half of the lineup is loaded with quality left-handed bats and that should give Arrieta fits, as he has a .379 wOBA and .218 ISO against batters from that side of the plate since last season. Near the top of the lineup, Michael Conforto (.398 wOBA, .267 ISO vs RHP since 2019) has a lineup leading 183 overall wRC+ over the last 30 days and costs a reasonable $3.5K on FanDuel. In fact, every LHB in the projected lineup tonight is above a 120 wRC+ over the last 30 days.

Asher Wojciechowski has only completed five innings once over his last four starts. A 12.2 K-BB% is not enough to thwart a 32.1 GB% and 21.2 HR/FB, although he’s allowed two more HRs (seven) than Barrels (five). However, 9% Barrels/BBE is not pretty in any scenario. The long ball hurt him last year as well (17 in 82.1 innings). None of his estimators are below a 4.82 SIERA. The Mets have a 121 wRC+, 21.7 K% and 16.3 HR/FB vs RHP and get a significant park upgrade tonight. While batters from either side of the plate exceed a .200 ISO against Wojciechowski since last year, LHBs have a 36 point wOBA advantage (.365). The top half of the Mets’ lineup is predominantly left-handed. Michael Conforto (.390 wOBA, .257 ISO vs RHP since 2019) is one of the cheaper ones at just $3.1K on FanDuel. Exactly 10% of his batted balls have been Barrels this year and he’s coming off a 157 wRC+ over the last 30 days.