Michael Fulmer Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Players looking to grab some value at pitcher in the early slate might be in luck if they're willing to accept that struggling pitchers are likely to return to previous norms. There are a number of arms in the $6-8K range with the potential to return profit on their price tags. Jose Urena (18.4 K%, 4.26 SIERA, .328 xwOBA) might be a league average pitcher in a great park, yet is frequently under-priced. He's recorded a sixth inning out in 16 of his 26 starts and hosts a Phillies' offense with a 94 wRC+ and 25.1 K% vs RHP. That offense has improved over the last month, but still has a 70 wRC+, 21.2 K-BB% and -7.1 Hard-Soft% over the last week. Dallas Keuchel (17.7 K%, 4.02 SIERA, .307 xwOBA) has seen his hard hit rate increase in recent starts against tough divisional foes (Oakland, Seattle, Los Angeles), but faces a Twins' offense with just an 84 wRC+ and 8.4 HR/FB against LHP today in one of the most negative run environments in baseball at a cost of just $7.9K on DraftKings. Vince Velasquez (26.2 K%, 3.97 SIERA, .303 xwOBA) has just an 18.3 K%, 5.51 SIERA and .343 xwOBA over the last month, but may be able to get back on track in Miami (<85 wRC+ at home and vs RHP) for just $6.6K on FanDuel. Michael Fulmer allowed seven runs in Kansas City last time out after 4.2 shoutout innings in his first start back from the DL. That first start was against the same White Sox (18.9 K-BB% vs RHP) he'll be facing today. He's within $100 of $7K on either site.

The A's have a 4.58 implied run line that's third best on the board this afternoon. Michael Fulmer did tie a season high with nine strikeouts last time out, but failed to get through six innings. Each of his previous two outings were seven inning, one-run efforts, though he's allowed at least three runs in six of his last nine starts (four or more in four). With a league average 20.9 K% for the season, his ERA and estimators are all slightly above four, but his start to start efforts seem completely unpredictable. LHBs (.303 wOBA, .332 xwOBA, 36.3 Hard%) have given him more trouble than RHBs (.282 wOBA, .316 xwOBA, 30.3 Hard%, 52.3 GB%) since last season. All three of Oakland's LHBs would seem in play here: Dustin Fowler (99 wRC+, .155 ISO, 47.7 Hard% vs RHP last calendar year), who costs less than $3K on FD, Jed Lowrie (127 wRC+, .192 ISO), who has a 196 wRC+ over the last week, and Matt Olson (150 wRC+, .331 ISO, 50.2 Hard%), who tops the lineup with a 57.7 Hard% over the last week. Khris Davis (134 wRC+, .298 ISO) is the RHB worthy of attention.

At 4.46 implied runs, the Reds are actually third best on the board this afternoon against Michael Fulmer, who has struggled at times this season, but is coming off back to back seven inning starts with one run allowed in each. Though batters from either side of the plate are below a .300 wOBA against him since last year, xwOBA brings LHBs up to .330 to go with their 35.6 Hard% and league average ground ball rate againt them. Six of the eight Reds in the lineup today will bat from that side. As usual, Joey Votto (178 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the top bat. Scott Schebler (99 wRC+, .2228 ISO) and Scooter Gennett (138 wRC+, .222 ISO) compliment in the first half of the lineup with Tucker Barnhart (94 wRC+, .133 ISO) the value play in the second slot.

The Tigers and Twins both have implied run lines within 0.08 points of 4.5 implied runs each with two struggling pitchers on the mound. Michael Fullmer did throw seven one-run innings with seven strikeouts against the Indians last time out, but had allowed nine runs in 9.1 innings in his previous two outings and now has just a 20% strikeout rate both on the season and over the last month. Statcast sees his xwOBA 31 points above his actual .302 wOBA against LHBs since last season. Eduardo Escobar (131 wRC+, .289 ISO) and Eddie Rosario (153 wRC+, .278 ISO) have been destroying RHP over the last calendar year. Logan Morrison (113 wRC+, .235 ISO) and Brian Dozier (110 wRC+, .203 ISO) have handled them well as well. Lance Lynn is also coming off his best start of the season, striking out seven and walking just two Angels through six four-hit, one-run innings. He allowed just a run in his previous start too, but with five walks. He still has a 14.2 BB% on the season, though both his walk (10.8%) and strikeout (21.8%) rates have decreased over his last seven starts. Lynn has major platoon issues. LHBs have a .355 wOBA (.364 xwOBA) against him since last season. Considering the control issues, Leonys Martin (114 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a great bet to reach base and score a run today. He has a 188 wRC+ and 56.3 Hard% over the last week.

If players are not paying up for pitching, they might want to consider Cleveland bats. They're likely to lack high ownership stacks because despite a 4.86 implied run line, there are six teams higher and their facing a "name pitcher" in Michael Fulmer. However, Fulmer has a below average strikeout rate on the season and a 6.66 ERA over the last month with all of his estimators above five. His hard hit rate has been above 50% in four of his last five starts, which has resulted in a .383 xwOBA over that span. Francisco Lindor (122 wRC+, .254 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Michael Brantley (144 wRC+, .219 ISO), Jose Ramirez (169 wRC+, .326 ISO) and Edwin Encarnacion (149 wRC+, .294 ISO) will all be difficult to afford for players paying up for arms. LHBs have a .336 xwOBA, 35.6 Hard% and 44.8 GB% against Fulmer since last season.

The Twins have an implied run line (4.77) a full run above their opponents (Tigers 3.73) in one of five games on the early slate today (four on FanDuel). Kyle Gibson has not been consistent (8 BBs last two starts), but has shown some upside this season (25.6 K% second best on the afternoon) and should be a popular pivot off of Justin Verlander for $4-5K less ($7.7K on either site). This afternoon's confirmed Detroit lineup has just a .287 wOBA and .137 ISO with a 23.1 K% vs RHP since 2017 according to PlateIQ. Batters from either side have a wOBA within two points of .340 against Gibson since last season, while RHBs are favored by over 40 points by xwOBA, though with an eight point higher GB rate. Nick Castellanos has the top wRC+ (111) and ISO (.200) in the lineup against RHP over the last calendar year. Michael Fulmer had a bounce back start in Seattle and now has a 40+ O-Swing% in three straight starts. He has a 28 K%, 14 SwStr% over the last month and could be an under the radar play this afternoon, especially for just $6.1K on DraftKings. That said, LHBs have a .330 xwOBA and 35.1 Hard% against him since last season. Eddie Rosario (145 wRC+, .281 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Eduardo Escobar (118 wRC+, .239 ISO), Logan Morrison (125 wRC+, .257 ISO) and Max Kepler (101 wRC+, .195 ISO) are dangerous bats.

Weather cooperating, which it may not, Max Scherzer is the top pitcher on the board...because he's on the board tonight. He has at least seven strikeouts in every start and only that few his second time out, which is also the only time he did not finish six innings. His strikeout rate is at 40.4%. Not that it much matters at this point, but he's facing the Dodgers (103 wRC+, 21.6 K% vs RHP). While Scherzer is the top pitcher on the board, he's just third best by xwOBA (.260). Both Jacob deGrom (.239) and Charlie Morton (.243) beat him by that metric and both have similar 32% strikeout rates, though deGrom has a full point edge in swinging strike rate (14.8% to 13.8%) and may be the top value on the board with a price tag that is just $10K at it's highest on FanDuel. The reason for this is a short DL stint for a hyper-extended issue which led to a shortened start (46 pitches) and then just a single inning outing (45 pitches) coming out of that, which would seem like an aberration. He hasn't thrown more than 46 pitches since April 27th, but had previously been going 100+ regularly with great results. He also may have the top matchup on the board (Arizona 78 wRC+, 25.3 K% vs RHP, 29 wRC+ last seven days) in a negative run environment. Morton's matchup is a bit tougher (Cleveland 142 wRC+, 3.7 K-BB% last seven days) and there's been some inconsistency in his outings at a higher cost than deGrom without better numbers. He struck out a season high 14 last time out and has a board low 2.7% Barrels/BBE this year. Those are the three elite choices on tonight's slate. Of course, there are more speculative plays at lower prices. These come at higher risk or not as much upside. Mike Clevinger has cut his walk rate in half (6.7%), is going deeper in games (into the seventh in five of last seven starts) and has a 13.2 SwStr% over the last month. He's in Houston, but it's one of the most negative run environments in baseball and the Astros have a very ordinary 101 wRC+ vs RHP this year. Michael Fulmer has allowed 11 ERs and three HRs over his last 10 innings, but velocity, chase rate (40+% last two starts) and swinging strike rate (13.2% last 30 days) are all up. He faces an ailing Seattle offense in a great park for just $6.1K on DraftKings. Blake Snell has struck out just 12 of his last 69 batters with a 35+% hard hit rate in all three of those starts, but has retained an above average SwStr% in every start and costs just $8K against the Angles tonight. Zack Godley has been about league average by strikeouts, ERA and estimators, but faces a Mets lineup without a few key bats in a pitcher's park. C.C. Sabathia misses enough bats to be useful with elite contact management and costs $7.5K in Kansas City. Jake Arrieta (around $8K in St Louis) is not missing enough bats, but generates tons of weak ground balls and has been pitching deep into games. Michael Wacha is just a five or six inning pitcher for $8K, but the Phillies have a 26.3 K% vs RHP.

Kyle Hendricks, Dallas Kuechel and Michael Fulmer are the contact managers on today's board. They can occasionally pop off a few strikeouts, but all have strikeout rates between 18-20% this year with low exit velocities. In Keuchel's case, he's leaving a few more pitches over the plate and surrendered a season high three HRs to the same Oakland team he faces tonight two starts back. His 56 GB% is the highest of the three, though not up to his usual standards, while his 87.3 mph aEV is also highest of the three. He does pitch in the most negative run environment of the three as well, in Oakland tonight. Fulmer has increased his slider usage to above 30% in each of his last three starts, though has only exceeded five strikeouts once and been above an 8.7 SwStr% twice this season. Velocity has ticked up as well in each of his last three starts and while he pitches in the most dangerous park on the board tonight (Texas), the Rangers have a 25.9 K% vs RHP. Hendricks is doing the things he usually does, beating his estimators with strong defense and tons of weak ground balls. His 84.8 mph aEV is best on the board, though his strikeouts and swinging strike rate are down a bit. He may have the overall top matchup on the board against the Marlins (17.7 K-BB% vs RHP). Each of these three pitchers is between $7.9K and $9.6K on either site and offer reasonable floors, though not much excitement and much lower upsides than Stephen Strasburg.