Mike Zunino Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

On a 12 (FD) or 13 (DK) game slate with 10 teams reaching four and a half implied runs, not a single stack reaches double digit projected ownership on FanDuel tonight. On DraftKings, however, Coors stacks (Miami & Colorado) appear to be affordable enough to double up almost every other offense in terms of projected ownership, even though there are several offenses with higher implied run lines. The two stacks that smash the slate most often in simulations are the two offenses with the top two team totals (Mets & Dodgers), although in reverse order. Current simulations (which are fluid and subject to change) have the Dodgers smashing the FanDuel slate 10.18% of the time, the only stack that smashes more than nine percent of the time on either site. The Tampa Bay Rays (20.96 Value%) nearly triple up every other team in terms of value projections on FanDuel, while both the A’s (13.04%) and Nationals (11.25%) reach double digit value projections on DraftKings. For more on which top offenses are also top rated stacks tonight, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Despite a slight negative weather effect, according to Weather Edge, Fenway Park is still the most hitter friendly run environment on the board, although Ron Kulpa is considered the most pitcher friendly umpire on the slate.

The Rays are throwing the bullpen at the Red Sox in an elimination game today. It will begin with Collin McHugh, who reached a maximum three innings pitched seven times this year, none in his seven starts. Boston is tied with Tampa Bay atop the board with a team total of 4.75 runs, probably more due to the environment than anything else, as Tampa Bay has an elite bullpen and defense. That said, Kyle Schwarber (157 wRC+, .359 ISO vs RHP) and Rafael Devers (152 wRC+, .341 ISO) are the top bats here, though Kike Hernandez (99 wRC+, .179 ISO) has been a hitting machine in this series.

The .363 BABIP (.380 at home) and 68.9 LOB% notwithstanding, Eduardo Rodriguez finished with a 4.74 ERA that was nearly a run above his worst estimator (3.80 DRA) behind a 20.4 K-BB% and 86.5 mph EV. He will be going on short rest (three days), but only faced nine batters in Game One, striking out just one. Alex Cora has shown the ability to be aggressive and creative with his pitching in this series, which doesn’t portend well for Rodriguez’s workload in this game. There’s also the fact that the Rays had a 107 wRC+ vs LHP this year and that may even understates it with Wander Franco and Nelson Cruz joining the team after the All-Star break. That said, ERod costs just $6.5K on DraftKings and you may only have five realistic choices, should the forecast in Chicago be accurate. Five batters in the projected Tampa Bay lineup exceed a 25 K% vs LHP.

While Rodriguez had exactly a 20 point split with RHBs owning a .334 wOBA against him this year, Statcast brought both sides down to within a single point of a .290 xwOBA. Tampa Bay bats look really strong here, especially considering their affordability. Wander Franco smashed LHP after being called up (181 wRC+, .245 ISO), while Mike Zunino put up video game numbers (243 wRC+, .526 ISO). Randy Arozarena (153 wRC+, .233 ISO) is the most expensive batter in the lineup, but is still reasonably priced.

Nelson Cruz smashes LHP. This is not surprising information. He has a 163 wRC+ and .229 ISO against them this year. It’s also no surprise that he’s had some tremendous success against Martin Perez (three home runs, .514 xwOBA in 37 PAs because he is a LHP. However, he is not the only batter in the projected lineup for Tampa Bay who has smashed LHP this year. This news may be a bit more interesting because the Rays have just a 91 wRC+ vs LHP this year. Cruz is also not the only batter in the projected lineup who has homered three times against Perez. Mike Zunino has also accomplished the feat in fewer PAs (26) with a .353 xwOBA. And Zunino has also had more success against LHP than Cruz this year as well (211 wRC+, .451 ISO). Believe it or not, Perez has only allowed more than three runs in three starts this year, although all estimators are at least one-quarter of a run above his 4.18 ERA and RHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year. Despite the negative run environment this is a strong spot for Tampa Bay Bats (4.8 implied runs). Wander Franco (158 wRC+, .295 ISO), in a smaller sample, and Randy Arozarena (135 wRC+, .225 ISO) have had success against southpaws too, while Manuel Margot (105 wRC+) would have some value atop the lineup at a low price.

Tom Eshelman will make his major league debut for the Orioles in Tampa Bay. He began the season in the Philadelphia organization and was not a prospect of interest. After making five starts for them at AAA (22.6 K%, 4.5 BB%), he moved over to the Orioles, where he currently ranks 22nd in the org. (Fangraphs) with a 40 Future Value grade. He’s struck out just 11 of 84 batters (six walks) in three AAA starts for Baltimore. Already 25 years-old, there doesn’t seem to be much hope for further development left and he’s never previously struck out more than 20% of batters or had a ground ball rate above 45% above A ball since 2016, as he’s toiled around the upper minors. While there’s always some advantage to the unknown, this wouldn’t seem like the type of pitcher we’d expect to generate a high daily fantasy point total or hold back the Tampa Bay offense. With the exception of DH Brendan McKay getting his first major league PAs, the Rays’ lineup does not feature a single batter below a .169 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year with only Mike Zunino (75), Kevin Kiermaier (93) and Avisail Garcia (101) below a 117 wRC+. The Rays currently top the board at 5.79 implied runs.

Jose Berrios is mostly regarded as an ace, but there’s a few reasons to consider having some exposure to Rays’ bats against him tonight. Berrios has a mediocre 4.42 xFIP / 4.31 SIERA with a 17% k rate over the last 30 days. Berrios is also much worse on the road; in his career he has a .292 xwOBA allowed at home versus a .330 xwOBA allowed on the road. The Rays have the 4th best wRC+ in the league vs. RHP with a 117 mark and have a number of bats that are priced down for this matchup. Austin Meadows (.440 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Avisail Garcia (.410), Brandon Lowe (.355), Ji-Man Choi (.351) and Christian Arroyo (145 wRC+ in AAA this year) are all solid options that are in the top-5 of Tampa Bay’s order. With the exception of Meadows ($5.5k), all Rays’ hitters are $4.2k or less on Draftkings. Arroyo is just $2.6k and is a great value option. Mike Zunino (.316 xwOBA vs. RHP this year) and Willy Adames (.308) are also options and are both under $3.4k. The Rays have a 4.21 implied line vs. Berrios and the Twins Friday night.