Nick Hundley Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Based on his pristine Spring Training numbers and plus-matchup against the Giants, expect Eric Lauer (4.80 XFIP, 19.8% K-rate in 2018) to be somewhat popular on two-pitcher sites today. As the second-cheapest starting pitcher on DraftKings ($5,800), Lauer is sure to receive consideration, and rightfully so. However, Angels ace Trevor Cahill ($6,300 on DK) presents an opportunity to pivot off of Lauer and seemingly has more upside due to his proven ability to strike out hitters. Last season, Cahill struck out 22.2% of his opponents and got them to chase pitches out of the strike zone with ease (29.3% of his total strikes thrown were swings and misses outside the zone). The Athletics, who he started for on Opening Day last year, are a fantastic matchup for Cahill. Four of the hitters in Oakland’s projected lineup have strikeout rates of 25.8 or above (Khris Davis, Chad Pinder, Ramon Laureano, Nick Hundley). A third of their hitters had walk rates of 6.6% or less (Stephen Piscotty, Pinder, Laureano), an aggression that should play right into Cahill’s hands. Although he struggled to stay healthy throughout his career and rarely went deep into games last season, he enters the 2019 campaign fully healthy and ready to go. Of course Davis (.315 ISO, .380 wOBA in 2018) and company have the ability to tag him for a few runs, but if Cahill generates swings and misses like he has in the past, it’ll be easy to look past the earned runs and smile at the upside presented by the Ks.

Wei-Yin Chen will face a predominantly right-handed San Francisco lineup (seven of eight position players). Batters from that side have a .342 wOBA against him in limited work since last season, but xwOBA brings that mark down to .315, while Miami may be the most negative run environment in play. This combines to bring the Giants down to 4.19 runs via Vegas tonight, though they still boast four bats with a 140 wRC+ or better and .200+ ISO against LHP over the last calendar year. Buster Posey (140 wRC+, .203 ISO) and Andrew McCutchen (143 wRC+, .247 ISO) are top of the lineup guys, but Nick Hundley (172 wRC+, .333 ISO) and Mac Williamson (206 wRC+, .286 ISO) are more towards the bottom.

The San Francisco Giants may not be on the radar of daily fantasy players because Kyle Freeland is a decent pitcher outside of Coors and he gets one of the top park upgrades available tonight. However, it needs to be noted that both Andrew McCutchen (154 wRC+, .277 ISO) and Nick Hundley (177 wRC+, .283 ISO) over the last calendar year. While Hundley has had fewer opportunities and has a .377 xwOBA 47 points below his actual, that's still an extremely strong number. He costs just $2.4K on FanDuel.

The Marlins and Giants are the only significant run line mover on tonight's slate over the course of the afternoon. They are up over a quarter of a run, from 4.62 implied runs earlier this afternoon to 4.9 runs currently. Their opponent, San Francisco, is up nearly as much, going from 3.88 runs to 4.1 runs too. The pitching matchup for this game is Adam Conley (16.4 K%, 5.13 SIERA) vs Ty Blach (11.8 K%, 5.08 SIERA). It's no doubt these pitchers can be scored upon, but the prowess of the two offenses are in question. While there are four players across both lineups with both a wRC+ above 140 and ISO above .250 against LHP this season, three of them (J.T. Realmuto, Buster Posey, and Nick Hundley) are all Catcher eligible. The exception, of course, is Giancarlo Stanton, who has homered in nine of his last 10 games and is the only one of the four with a wRC+ above 100 or hard hit rate above 30% over the last week. Players can see run lines and track movement for all teams on the Vegas Odds page.

Christian Friedrich had the best came of his career in his last start at home against this same Rockies team with 10 strikeouts in seven scoreless innings. However, there is nothing in his stats or his peripherals to suggest that we could expect anything close to that again, even if this game weren't at Coors Field. Friedrich has been pretty good against left-handed batters this season which could help neutralize the strong outfield hitters for the Rockies, but against right-handed batters, his 16.4% strikeout rate, 10.7% walk rate and average batted ball trends are likely to get him into trouble with Nolan Arenado (109 wRC+, .363 wOBA, .239 ISO, vs LHP), D.J. LeMahieu (134 wRC+, .399 wOBA, .176 ISO vs LHP) and Nick Hundley (122 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .241 ISO vs LHP). Arenado is the top overall hitter of the night and is the first guy we should lock into our cash game lineup. There is plenty of merit to using Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez in tournament stacks in case this game gets out of hand early.

Clayton Richard has a fairly extensive history of not being a good pitcher in this league and his peripherals are still poor through four starts (7.5 K-BB%). He’s dominating at the point of contact though (66.2 GB% and a -2.8 Hard-Soft%), and while we probably can’t consider that sustainable, he’s in a great spot (Rockies 85 wRC+, 16.1 K-BB% on the road) and extremely cheap. At just $4.7K on DraftKings, he may even be the top point per dollar play. RHBs do have a .347 wOBA against him each of the last two seasons, but with hard contact just 28% of the time. It's extremely difficult to find value here in such a negative run environment with an offense that has only one RHB (Arenado 118 wRC+) that's an above average hitter on the road, yet he's still priced as if this game is at Coors. Nick Hundley (119 wRC+, .244 ISO vs LHP this season) may still be an affordable option at a very weak Catcher position tonight.

Rich Hill has been excellent this season with a 27.8% strikeout rate and a 2.09 ERA (3.51 SIERA), but he relies heavily on his curveball, which could be a problem at Coors Field. Hill has been an extreme ground ball pitcher to left-handed batters (67.2%) along with a 20.3% hard hit rate, so it’s difficult to get excited about the Rockies left-handed outfielders. Hill’s batted ball profile is average to right-handed batters, as he is going for strikeouts with a high 30.9% strikeout rate, but this shouldn't be too much of an issue for a hitter with the type of elite skills Nolan Arenado (118 wRC+, .377 wOBA, .258 ISO vs LHP) brings to the table. Nick Hundley (111 wRC+, .368 wOBA, .224 ISO vs LHP) and D.J. LeMahieu (.191 ISO vs LHP) are less intriguing names, but they are both hitting the ball well against left-handed pitching. LeMahieu has a .421 wOBA with more walks than strikeouts and Hundley has a 42.4% hard hit rate against lefties.