Pedro Severino Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Dillon Peters is a career 5.45 ERA / 5.02 xFIP pitcher over 72 2/3 innings despite seeing a good amount of those innings in pitcher-friendly Marlins Park. He also owned a 6.47 ERA / 5.33 FIP / 4.81 xFIP over 57 innings in AAA this year with an ugly 1.74 HR/9. Per Statcast he 352 xwOBA allowed and 89.8 MPH aEV in his career. The Orioles haven’t been a good offense this year by any measure, but they do have a 101 wRC+ over the past 30 days and some intriguing options in their lineup tonight. Trey Mancini (.388 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Pedro Severino (.382), Renato Nunez, Anthony Santander (.308) and Hanser Alberto (.295) are all good options tonight. Santander has been their hottest hitter with a .394 xwOBA over the past 30 days, followed by Renato Nunez (.346) and Trey Mancini (.345). Alberto and Severino are both nice values on Draftkings as they are under $3.4k. As a whole, the Orioles are a very affordable stack on both sites and will likely see very low ownership. They currently have a 4.11 implied line vs. the Angels and make for a solid contrarian play tonight.

If you’re playing the late afternoon slate, it might be wise to look at stacking against Yusei Kikuchi, who has really struggled. Over the past 30 days, Kikuchi has posted a 6.11 SIERA, 6.49 xFIP, 10.35 ERA, 0.9% K-BB and 42.7% hard contact rate. He’s allowed a .456 xwOBA (!!) and 89.2 MPH aEV over that time frame. The Orioles don’t have a good offense, but they are in a great spot here and will have plenty of affordable bats in their lineup for this matchup. Pedro Severino (.428 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Trey Mancini (.402) and Renato Nunez (.346) have all mashed LHP this year; Mancini is $4.7k on Draftkings but Severino and Nunez can be had under $4k. Hanser Alberto (.287) will leadoff, and Jonathan Villar (.249) is also a nice play given the stolen base potential. Keon Broxton is also in play with a career 103 wRC+ vs. LHP and a price of just $2.9k on Draftkings. The Mariners bullpen as a whole has also struggled with a 7th worst 4.53 SIERA over the past 30 days. The Orioles have a 4.03 implied total vs. Kikuchi and the Mariners Sunday afternoon.

Once a promising prospect, Jeff Hoffman hasn’t really put together a good season at any level since 2016. In 35.2 innings in AAA this year Hoffman had a 7.20 ERA / 5.36 xFIP with a 2.02 HR/9 and a 10.2% walk rate. Most projection systems have Hoffman at a 5+ ERA at the MLB level for 2019. The Orioles have a healthy 5.27 implied total currently vs. Hoffman, but maybe that’s too low given the matchup and environment. Dwight Smith Jr. (.343 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Trey Mancini (.337), Pedro Severino (.331), Chris Davis (.322), Rio Ruiz (.317), Jonathan Villar (.310) and Stevie Wilkerson (.309) are all in the O’s projected lineup and have been decent bats vs. RHP this year. Rio Ruiz (.364 xwOBA over the past 10 days) and Trey Mancini (.360) have been the Orioles’ hottest hitters of late, while Chris Davis (.144) has seemingly fallen into another cold streak. Rio Ruiz is just $3.8k and is easily the best value in the lineup. Villar and Wilkerson project to bat 1-2 in the order and are both under $4.8k. Davis and Severino are all available under $4k tonight.

Kevin Gausman has some strikeout upside (26.6 K%, 15.9 SwStr% last 30 days) and the Nationals have just a 5.38 implied run line, but that's still best for third best on a six game slate and Guasman has allowed six HRs on just 24 fly balls over his last six starts. Gausman has a reverse split, more pronounced this year (.371 wOBA with 10 HRs for RHBs, LHBs .316 wOBA with four HRs) than last year (RHBs .344 wOBA with 17 HRs, LHBs .350 wOBA with 12 HRs). His xwOBA is within 10 points of these numbers on either side since last season. This makes Anthony Rendon (137 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) the top overall bat and top value in the lineup for less than $4K on either site. He has a 253 wRC+ and team leading 55.6 Hard% over the last week. Trea Turner (116 wRC+, .167 ISO) has some stolen base and run scoring potential directly in front or Rendon today. Bryce Harper (138 wRC+, .197 ISO) and Juan Soto (132 wRC+, .164 ISO) round out the top half of the lineup. Harper is one of three Nationals in tonight's lineup (Pedro Severino, Mark Reynolds) who have a wRC+ worse than -40 over the last week though. Yes, that's a negative number.