Rafael Montero Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Rafael Montero had acquired a fairly well-deserved reputation as a failed prospect this season. Given chance after chance, he never did anything to show that he deserved to remain in the major leagues, let alone the starting rotation. Something seems to have changed after his most recent recall to the majors in June. While he's still had periods of struggles, the overall package has looked at least competent with the increased use of an improved changeup (21%) that he's ridden to the lowest aEV (83.8 mph) on the afternoon slate among those with at least five starts. His 4.4% Barrels/BBE is lowest without any cutoff. His 26.5% 95+ mph EV is second. He still has a 9.8 BB% in 11 starts (four relief appearances) since mid-June, but now with a 23.5 K% to go along with the weak contact (3.5 Hard-Soft%). Montero is coming off the best start of his career in Cincinnati, where he walked four, but one of those was Votto...intentionally...in the ninth inning. He struck out a career high eight through 8.1 shutout innings on three hits. He costs $7.5K or less this afternoon and might have the best matchup on the board. The Phillies have a 78 wRC+ and 10.0 HR/FB on the road with an 87 wRC+ and 16.2 K-BB% vs RHP. Over the last week, they have 76 wRC+, 24.4 K% and 4.7 HR/FB. Rhys Hoskins (190 wRC+, .381 ISO, 45.1 Hard% vs RHP) returns to the Philadelphia lineup from a few days off with a hand issue and that will help the cause of the offense here, though he does cost $4.6K on FanDuel. Nick Williams (109 wRC+, .208 ISO, 38.7 Hard vs RHP) has been the only other above average hitter with any power against RHP in today's lineup and he has just a 35 wRC+ with a 15.8 Hard% over the last week.

Although he's only giving up 29.4% Hard%, he has a low 17.4% Soft%, which has helped keep his BABIP elevated to .391. If we include his 2016 numbers, which brings his sample size to 197 RHB faced, his wOBA (.382) and BABIP (.345) are still high while his Soft% (16.4%) remains low. While his career BABIP is .321 against 324 RHB faced since 2014, this season is the only time it's been above .286. This is a good indication there's some element of bad luck in his performance this year. Furthering that argument, his 4.70 SIERA is a full run lower than his 5.72 ERA. Even so, with the Mets playing in Coors field today, Vegas has provided the Rockies a projected run total of 6.43, which leads the early slate by a mile. Arenado (.370 wOBA, .274 ISO vs. RHP this season), Reynolds (.353 wOBA, .204 ISO), and Story (.326 wOBA, .225 ISO) stand out as some solid righty bats to target this afternoon. Although Montero has limited LHB to .319 wOBA this year, he's struggled to get them out over the course of his career. In addition to posting a career .381 wOBA vs LHB, he's also produced a .360 BABIP, exceeding .300 in each season he's put in time in the bigs. It's somewhat odd considering his career 27.1% Hard% and 24.4% Hard% this season, but he has a career 18.8% Soft% and 36.8% GB%. This season, he's shown marked improvement in ground balls, raising his rate to 43.6% against LHB and 46.6% against RHB. Despite these enhancements, he's given up at least three earned runs in his past four starts and four home runs over his last two. Our projections model favors the Rockies quite a bit, providing them four of the top six spots on the early slate and seven of the top 14 on both FD and DK.

An interesting dynamic occurs tonight where the Rockies are the only offense projected for more than six runs, but a combination of the absence of Nolan Arenado from the lineup, Clayton Kershaw on the mound ahead of a weak pitching slate, and more than half the boards with an implied run line above 4.7 runs could generate lower than normal ownership rates for the top team. It's completely unsurprising that Kershaw is projected as the most popular arm on the slate, but what might be unexpected is Mike Clevinger's potential popularity behind him and even potentially competing with Kershaw for the top ownership rate on DraftKings. Gary Sanchez is expected to be the most popular bat against Bartolo Colon tonight, debuting for Minnesota, but beyond that, things look to spread out as players may struggle to construct lineups with Kershaw. A sneaky play tonight could be Rafael Montero at $6K on either site with minimal ownership expectations. He has a 20.0 K-BB% in 19.1 innings since returning to the majors a month ago and has managed contact well all season (82.8 mph aEV). Projected ownership rates are updated throughout the day and are available for all players to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.

Although not all with enough innings to qualify, there are four pitchers on tonight's slate with a strikeout rate exceeding 30%, yet Clayton Kershaw is still far and away the top choice tonight where some of those other arms are questionably even usable. Kershaw (9.05) is slightly ahead of Robbie Ray (8.89) on the Daily K Predictor and has struck out 36 of his last 84 batters. He's the clear top projected pitcher well ahead of Ray via the RotoGrinders Player Projections. The issue with Ray is that he's walked at least four in each of his last five starts with a 38.2 Hard% over that span. A tough park may play some part in contact issues and though Cincinnati is an overall upgrade, it actually plays more power friendly. That said, he's still the clear number two arm on tonight's slate. Dinelson Lamet has a 30.9 K%, but travels to Coors with a 15.1% Barrels/BBE. Brad Peacock has a 32.1 K%, but a 14.1 BB% makes his 26.3 K% over the last month a bit riskier, especially when he can't sustain a 1.4 HR/FB. On the cheaper end, perhaps worth speculating on may be Rafael Montero. The former prospect has a 20.0 K-BB% (12.5 SwStr%) since his most recent call up a month ago (19.1 IP). While it’s an incredibly small sample size, he has carried a 26 Hard% over this span with a board low 82.8 mph aEV for the season. He faces an average offense (Cardinals) in a great park at a low cost ($6K on either site) on a board lacking in quality arms.

Rafael Montero has a -1.9 K-BB% in his first 11.2 major league innings this season with control issues in the minors as well (10.4 BB% at AAA) that caused him to be demoted to AA. He's here based on necessity with an ailing rotation, not merit. The big three for the Nationals (yes, THREE....Turner has earned it) are all great plays tonight with Turner (136 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP since 2015) standing a great chance of swiping a base or more if D'arnaud is catching. Daniel Murphy (141 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is likely the top bargain on FanDuel for $3.7K. LHBs have faced Montero 137 times in his short career thus far with a .413 wOBA due to a 0.7 K-BB%. The Nationals are just one of three offenses projected for more than five runs tonight.