Reynaldo Lopez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Reynaldo Lopez has garnered some attention in the second half of the season with a velocity and strikeout rate increase (23.5% since the break), sporting a matching 3.93 ERA and 3.90 FIP over 12 starts. Normalize the 9.8 HR/FB though and the xFIP still sits at 4.77 over this span and Lopez has hardly been consistent. In road starts against the Angels, Twins and Braves since the middle of August, Lopez has allowed at least five runs, while the Royals hit the ball out of the park four times against him in his last start. Five of the 47 Twins he’s faced have homered against him this year. That’s an average of one HR each trip through the lineup. This Minnesota lineup is incredibly difficult to navigate (112 wRC+, 21.3 K% and 25.6 Hard-Soft% vs RHP are all splits that are either best or second best on the board tonight). The projected lineup features six batters above a .340 wOBA and also six above a .200 ISO vs RHP this season and has the fourth best implied run line on the board tonight at 5.83. While LHBs (.365 wOBA, .346 xwOBA) have hit Lopez better than RHBs (.327 wOBA, .320 xwOBA) this year, five of his eight HRs allowed post-break have been surrendered to RHBs in a nearly equal amount of PAs. Nelson Cruz (147 wRC+, .283 ISO vs RHP this year), Mitch Garver (118 wRC+, .281 ISO), Jorge Polanco (140 wRC+, .212 ISO) and either Max Kepler (118 wRC+, .281 ISO) or whoever’s in the leadoff spot would be most interesting here.

Reynaldo Lopez has a 20.7 K% this season. Take out back to back starts against the Tigers and it’s just 14.1% over his other 10 starts. Over the last month, it’s been 11.7% (though with an 8.4 SwStr%). His 46.1 Z-O-Swing% is third worst on the board. His 10.2% Barrels/BBE is fourth worst. Not missing bats and generating that amount of hard contact has led to a .410 xwOBA over the last month. While his SIERA, xFIP and FIP are below six with a 6.20 ERA, due to a .332 BABIP, his 9.72 DRA is quite disturbing. Washington bats are the play here and while their healthy 5.41 implied run line would likely make that obvious, with a full one-third of the board above five runs tonight and the Nationals half way down that list, lineups should be well distributed. Batters from either side of the plate have at least a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Lopez over the last calendar year. They also have a hard hit rate above 35% with a ground ball rate below 32%, offering plenty of power potential here. Anthony Rendon (156 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP), Juan Soto (148 wRC+, .237 ISO) and Howie Kendrick (128 wRC+, .261 ISO) are your projected participants above a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP over the last month. Adding additional fuel, each is above a 190 wRC+ over the last week and a 140 wRC+ at home since last season.

The Twins are easily one of the highest upside stacks of the night, as they lead the league in homers and face Reynaldo Lopez, who is among the worst of tonight’s pitchers in both HR/9 and FB%. Lopez has been awful this year with a 5.14 ERA / 5.71 xFIP , 10.1% BB rate, a horrendous 55.4% FB rate and a 37.3% hard contact. He also has a .348 xwOBA allowed, a 90.5 aEV and a 10.2% barrel rate. Lopez has been pretty platoon neutral for his career and can be targeted from both sides of the plate. Jorge Polanco (.382 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), CJ Cron (.376), Max Kepler (.368), Eddie Rosario (.344), Jonathan Schoop (.332) and Jason Castro (.471!) are all in play vs. Lopez. Marwin Gonzalez (.320) is batting 3rd and is a nice value at $4.2k on Draftkings. Max Kepler is leading off and has been the Twins’ hottest hitter with a .445 xwOBA over the past 10 days. The Twins currently have a 5.27 implied total vs. Lopez and the White Sox.