| Date | Opp | DKSAL | FDSAL | DKFPTS | FDFPTS | k | ip | ab | sho | w | hra | l | er | cg | ha | 3ba | bba | sba | ibba | whip | hbp | qstart | 1ba | k/9 | 2ba |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-09-26 | @ WSH | -- | -- | 1.35 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 1 |
| 2020-09-20 | vs. ATL | $7.8K | $6.8K | 30.15 | 52 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.71 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12.86 | 0 |
| 2020-09-15 | @ PHI | $7.8K | $6.8K | 10.7 | 21 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.33 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7.5 | 1 |
| 2020-09-09 | vs. BAL | $7.9K | $6.9K | -1 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6.75 | 1 |
| 2020-09-04 | vs. PHI | $7.3K | $6.7K | 18.5 | 34 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.83 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 2020-08-30 | @ NYY | $7.8K | -- | 7.65 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3.6 | 2 |
| 2020-08-25 | vs. MIA | $8.2K | -- | 3.15 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.67 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 2 |
| 2020-08-16 | @ PHI | $6.7K | $7.2K | 11.5 | 24 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.67 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 2 |
| 2020-08-11 | vs. WSH | $6.7K | $6.8K | 14.7 | 31 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.33 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7.5 | 0 |
| 2020-08-05 | @ WSH | $9.3K | $6.4K | 22.75 | 40 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.71 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5.14 | 2 |
| 2020-07-31 | @ ATL | $7K | $6.5K | 8.2 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11.25 | 1 |
| 2020-07-26 | vs. ATL | $8K | $6.9K | -11.5 | -9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4.5 | 3 |
| 2019-09-25 | @ TEX | -- | -- | 22.7 | 43 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 2 |
| 2019-09-20 | @ TB | -- | -- | 23.7 | 40 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 2019-09-15 | @ PHI | -- | -- | 19.65 | 33 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10.8 | 0 |
| 2019-09-08 | vs. NYY | -- | -- | -5.2 | -3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.75 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2.25 | 1 |
| 2019-09-03 | vs. MIN | -- | -- | 0.4 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 11.25 | 1 |
| 2019-08-27 | @ COL | -- | -- | 16.45 | 30 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 3 |
| 2019-08-21 | vs. PHI | -- | -- | 7.05 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.4 | 2 |
| 2019-08-16 | vs. BAL | -- | -- | 15.9 | 31 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 2019-08-10 | vs. LAA | -- | -- | 4.25 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5.4 | 1 |
| 2019-08-05 | vs. KC | -- | -- | 21.9 | 40 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | 1 |
| 2019-07-31 | vs. TB | -- | -- | 8.75 | 20 | 7 | 5.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.76 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11.13 | 1 |
| 2019-07-25 | vs. NYY | -- | -- | 17.3 | 34 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.17 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7.5 | 2 |
| 2019-07-20 | @ BAL | -- | -- | 4.05 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7.2 | 3 |
| 2019-07-15 | vs. TOR | -- | -- | 8.1 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.33 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| 2019-07-06 | @ DET | -- | -- | 8.75 | 20 | 5 | 5.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.76 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7.95 | 0 |
| 2019-06-29 | vs. NYY | -- | -- | -14.85 | -17 | 0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 2019-06-23 | vs. TOR | -- | -- | 0.3 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| 2019-06-17 | @ MIN | -- | -- | 32.75 | 55 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.71 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10.29 | 2 |
| 2019-06-12 | vs. TEX | -- | -- | 20 | 36 | 6 | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.75 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8.11 | 3 |
| 2019-06-07 | vs. TB | -- | -- | 8.1 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 1 |
| 2019-06-01 | @ NYY | -- | -- | 4.5 | 14 | 5 | 4.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.14 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9.66 | 0 |
| 2019-05-27 | vs. CLE | -- | -- | 13.8 | 33 | 4 | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1.65 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5.41 | 2 |
| 2019-05-22 | @ TOR | -- | -- | 17.7 | 31 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| 2019-05-17 | vs. HOU | -- | -- | 13.55 | 28 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3.86 | 1 |
| 2019-05-11 | vs. SEA | -- | -- | 17.4 | 29 | 5 | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6.76 | 2 |
| 2019-05-05 | @ CWS | -- | -- | 20.5 | 37 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.83 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10.5 | 0 |
| 2019-04-30 | vs. OAK | -- | -- | 35.6 | 58 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| 2019-04-25 | vs. DET | -- | -- | 16.7 | 34 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.33 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7.5 | 1 |
| 2019-04-20 | @ TB | -- | -- | 13.95 | 26 | 5 | 5.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.24 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7.95 | 0 |
| 2019-04-13 | vs. BAL | -- | -- | 0.4 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2.75 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4.5 | 1 |
| 2019-04-05 | @ ARI | -- | -- | -1.3 | 8 | 5 | 4.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2.79 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9.66 | 2 |
| 2019-03-31 | @ SEA | -- | -- | -2 | 5 | 3 | 2.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3.75 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10.15 | 1 |
Rick Porcello Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
Two top offenses set up for a slug fest at Fenway tonight
Twins at Red Sox is likely to revert into a slugfest. While conditions are not expected to be as optimal for offense as some other spots tonight according to Weather Edge (premium subscription required), Fenway is the most positive run environment in play tonight and the Twins are starting a non-prospect 24 year-old rookie against a pitcher who has struggled all season.
Randy Dobnak had just an 8.8 K-BB% in 46 AAA innings before getting the call. He hasn’t walked any of the 37 batters he’s faced for the Twins, but has struck out just six with 41.9% of his contact above a 95 mph EV. He has generated a combined ground ball rate around 60% this year though. The Red Sox are the lowest of four teams above six implied runs though (6.14) and are an incredibly difficult matchup here with J.D. Martinez (283 wRC+, 47.1 Hard% last seven days) and Xander Bogaerts (303 wRC+, 70 Hard%) on fire. Mookie Betts and Rafael Devers join Bogearts above a 140 wRC+ and .230 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year.
The Twins are a bit lower on the board, but still at a healthy 5.36 implied runs that places them in the top third. Rick Porcello has just a 17.7 K% this year with an ERA, SIERA and DRA all above five. A reduced ground ball rate (37.5%) has led to 9.5% Barrels/BBE. 14 of his 26 HRs have come over his last 11 starts, beginning with that disaster in London. The projected lineup for the Twins features just one batter below a 100 wRC+ vs RHP (C.J. Cron 86) over the last calendar year and only two below a .195 ISO. Jorge Polanco (139 wRC+, .205 ISO) and Max Kepler (120 wRC+, .276 ISO) will face a pitcher who has generated a .344 wOBA and xwOBA against RHBs over the last 12 months.
Rays lefties in position to do some damage at Fenway
Tonight’s forcast suggests some nice hitting weather in one of the most positive run environments in baseball, so load up the Red Sox at a board high 5.98 implied runs, right? That’s the obvious play, but Ryan Yarbrough threw 7.2 innings of one run ball here last month and leads the slate with a 3.8 BB% and 84.6 mph aEV. He’s also increased his strikeout rate to 23.7% over the last month. Yarbrough should be getting the bulk of the game for the Rays. Perhaps the more ideal pitcher to attack (at least in terms of game theory) is Rick Porcello, who allowed just three runs in his last start, the fewest he’s allowed since June 17th. His ERA and SIERA exceed five, while his DRA is above six. His strikeout rate is down to 17.6% with a 9.7% Barrels/BBE mark that’s tied for second highest on the board with Jordan Lyles behind only Vince Velasquez (12.7%). The Rays are the last of five teams above five implied runs tonight (5.02). LHBs have a .339 wOBA (.346 xwOBA) with just a 32 GB% against Porcello over the last calendar year. The Tampa Bay lineup boasts three LHBs (Ji-Man Choi, Austin Meadows and Nate Lowe) all above a 125 wRC+ and .185 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year and also all above a 150 wRC+ and 50% hard hit rate over the last week. Choi leads off tonight and costs just $2.6K on FanDuel.
Banking on Improvement in a Plus Matchup
Mr. Porcello, we meet again. It seems like this guy is always facing a bad team on days where I am writing this article. I am not a fan of playing him in DFS generally, but on pitching-thin slates where he is facing a bad offense, he always checks in as a respectable value option. His price is right around $7,000 on both FD & DK, and he should be able to get the job done against an Orioles team that ranks 28th in team wOBA and 26th in ISO against RHP for the year. I really despise using him, especially since his recent results are ugly. He has allowed 21 earned runs over his last four starts with a 10.50 ERA in that span and a woeful K/BB ratio. However, we can remove the goofy start in London with that bandbox park, and his trends should stabilize. I can see the case to fade him in GPP formats, but I will reluctantly tag him as the preferred cash game SP #2 option for now.
Start of BOS-DET will be delayed due to rain Saturday
The start of the matchup between the Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers on Saturday afternoon will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Tigers have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Rick Porcello not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he believes that this contest will play through to conclusion following the initial delay.
Searching For a Cheaper Arm
There is not a lot to love in terms of cheaper pitching options today, so I will make my decisions on that front in terms of matchup and price tag. Zach Plesac is particularly cheap on DK/FDRFT, and he has pitched well since his call up to the major leagues. He carries a nice combination of safety and upside in a matchup against a weak Detroit offense. On FD, Rick Porcello seems to be a better option as a value. Plesac is priced up over there, and Porcello's strike throwing ability offers some potential against a weaker Toronto lineup.
Rick Porcello has a 6.4 SwStr% over the last month and a .346 xwOBA vs LHBs last 12 months
Rick Porcello has just a 15.8 K% with a 6.4 SwStr% over the last month. For the season, he has just an 18.6 K% with a 7.6 SwStr%. He has been managing contact effectively by some metrics (10 Hard-Soft%), though not so much by others (9.1% Barrels/BBE). Estimators pretty much all agree with a 4.76 ERA, except a 5.84 DRA that’s more than a run worse. Tonight, he gets a Tampa Bay offense that has been better than his own team against RHP (114 wRC+, 16.1 HR/FB, 25.8 Hard-Soft%) in a very positive run environment. While Porcello has virtually no split by wOBA (three points) over the last calendar year, xwOBA still puts LHBs (.346) 40 points above RHBs over that span. The Rays have a healthy 4.9 implied run line, but it’s still barely inside the top 10 tonight. This is a strong spot for Ji-Man Choi (145 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Brandon Lowe (128 wRC+, .232 ISO) and Austin Meadows (146 wRC+, .220 ISO).
Pitcher Coming Into Outing In Good Form
The fact we are considering Porcello as our SP1 gives you an indication of what kind of slate we’re working with. Porcello has an average 19.3% strikeout rate, but his walk rate has ballooned all the way up to 11.7% this season, which is double his career average. He has done a good job lately cutting back on his walks, however. After racking up 12 walks in his first three starts, he’s only allowed 5 walks in his last three starts. This suggests to me that his walk rate should start to decline towards his career average as it’s likely he’s made some kind of adjustment. I don’t love that he’s facing the White Sox in Guaranteed Rate Field as that’s a hitter’s ballpark, but the White Sox do have a 25.6% strikeout rate this season against right-handed pitching, 7th in the majors. They have a team wRC+ of 107, but their team ISO and team wOBA is around the league average.
Possible punt Catcher and OF value bat in Arizona
The game in Arizona does not present imposing run totals, while the humidor has negative impacted the run environment, but none the less, a couple of not entirely obvious batters stand out against two pitchers who struggled their first time out. David Peralta has an impressive 155 wRC+, .262 ISO and 52.1 Hard% against RHP over the last year, while LHBs had a .351 xwOBA against Rick Porcello last season (39.6 Hard%). While the normal candidates stand out for Boston as well, players could consider “punting” their Catcher position with Blake Swihart as well. Swihart has been an above average hitter (116 wRC+, .154 ISO) vs RHP over the last calendar year and has started this season with hard contact on three of his six batted balls so far.
Buehler likely not worth the price on afternoon slate
Although he is the only elite arm on the slate, it will be tough to pay up for Walker Buehler ($10.1 on DK, $12.1 on FD) given his likely reduced pitch count. Buehler threw just 2.2 innings during Spring Training as the Dodgers handled him with caution to protect his arm. He most recently threw a 60 pitch bullpen on 3/25, so he certainly doesn’t figure to see his regular pitch count this afternoon. Rick Porcello ($9.2k on DK, $9.6 on FD) vs. the Mariners and Chris Paddack ($9.7k on DK, $10.3 on FD) vs. the Giants could be good alternatives as the next two highest priced starters on the slate. There is a chance Paddack could be on a reduced pitch count to start the season as well, he averaged just 76 pitches per MiLB start last year as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery and the Padres figure to be cautious with him.
Peripherals show larger platoon issues than surface stats
The Braves have just a 4.27 implied run line against Rick Porcello tonight, but the Boston right-hander has had some platoon issues this year. The actual wOBA (.314) is only 20 points higher than RHBs, but the xwOBA is 30 points above that, while his hard hit rate (39.8%) is more than 10 points higher and the ground ball rate (34.7%) more than 18 points lower than against RHBs. The LHBs bunched at the top of the order for the Braves could give him some trouble: Ender Inciarte (97 wRC+, .130 ISO vs RHP this season), Freddie Freeman (130 wRC+, .170 ISO) and Nick Markakis (124 wRC+, .160 ISO). Ronald Acuna (146 wRC+, .284 ISO) is the only batter in the lineup above a .200 ISO vs RHP this season. If players are considering Atlanta bats, they probably work better as part of a stack.