Robinson Chirinos Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The top four team totals on the board (Padres, Rockies, Dodgers, Blue Jays) have everything tonight from Coors to bad bullpens to top bats to great values (Connor Joe is still less than $3K on either site), but there aren’t enough great values in those lineups to both stack a top team and pay up for Corbin Burnes. So where are Burnes backers to look for affordable offense? Despite an implied run line of 3.94 the depleted lineup of the Cubs might be a place to start. Of course, working against them immediately is the fact that they are depleted, but that also means cheap. They’re also facing a pitcher who has not only compiled four straight quality starts, but he’s only allowed five runs over his last 25 innings. Great! Even cheaper! Over those five starts, Vladimir Gutierrez has just a 21.7 K% (9.7 SwStr%) with a .250 BABIP, 91.3 LOB% and 6.9 HR/FB doing most of the work. For the season, he’s allowed 9.4% Barrels/BBE, which generates a 4.60 xERA. And that’s his only estimator below five! Cincinnati is also the most power friendly park in the league. Gutierrez has shown a bit of a reverse split so far (RHBs .341 wOBA, .330 xwOBA), but LHBs have had some success as well (.318 wOBA, .313 xwOBA). Consider the below average bullpen (5.06 ERA & FIP over the last 30 days) and the league’s worst defense behind him (-26 Runs Prevented via Statcast) and this entire lineup is in play for less than $3.5K on FanDuel with only Patrick Wisdom (128 wRC+, .301 ISO vs RHP this year) and Ian Happ (75 wRC+, .150 ISO) costing more than $4K on DraftKings. Robinson Chirinos (165 wRC+, .324 ISO) has a small sample this year, but a decent history of being a bat first catcher and makes for the perfect punt at the position for $2.7K or less. Rafael Ortega (164 wRC+, .205 ISO) should be in the leadoff spot and Frank Schwindel (102 wRC+, .186 ISO) has also been finding a home near the top of the order. He costs just $2.3K on DraftKings.

Yusei Kikuchi somehow navigated through five innings of one run ball the last time he was in Houston after allowing four home runs to these Astros the previous time he faced them. That latter performance may be more in line with what we should expect tonight. The Astros have elite peripherals against LHP (131 wRC+, 6.3 K-BB%, 16.1 HR/FB) and Kikuchi has not exceed a single strikeout in four of his last five starts (the outing in Houston being the odd exception – five Ks). Batters have a .401 xwOBA against him over the last 30 days, while he has a 23.1 HR/FB at home, a supposedly power suppressing ball park. Despite the negative run environment, Houston is in a virtual tie for the top implied run line tonight (6.39). RHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Kikuchi and the Houston projected order features just a single batter (Michael Brantley) below a .200 ISO vs LHP). This should be a nice batting practice session as the Astros prepare for the post-season. Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Robinson Chirinos, Yordan Alvarez and Carlos Correa all exceed a 150 wRC+ vs LHP in addition to the power.

Despite a relatively easy schedule (vs. Mets, @ Orioles, vs. Athletics, vs. Tigers, @ Marlins) over his past 5 starts, Montgomery has struggled to a 4.80 xFIP, 7.8% K-BB and 1.52 WHIP with a 44% hard contact and .358 xwOBA allowed over the past 30 days. Tonight he gets by far the toughest matchup he’s had in a while, an Astros’ lineup that has a league-leading 133 wRC+ vs. LHP on the year, as well as a league-leading 135 wRC+ over the past 30 days. Jose Altuve (.437 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Yordan Alvarez (.397), George Springer (.395), Robinson Chirinos (.386), Alex Bregman (.366), Aledmys Diaz (.348), Yuli Gurriel (.325) and Michael Brantley (.305) are all potential options in the Astros’ projected lineup. George Springer has been on fire with a scorching .462 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks. Yordan Alvarez has also seen the ball well with a .421 mark in the past 2 weeks. There aren’t many discounts to be had in this lineup, but they do have a nice 5.92 implied total and make for a solid GPP stack as usual.

Yusei Kikuchi has faced the Astros once this season, about a month ago in Houston. The Astros scored five runs against him in that game and should be in a position to do similar damage here. Kikuchi has allowed multiple HRs in six of his last 13 starts and now has an 18.2 HR/FB that exceeds his 16.6 K% with a 5.21 ERA supported by all of his estimators above five. While Houston is a negative run environment, this offense is now at full strength and has absolutely destroyed left-handed pitching this year (135 wRC+, 6.5 K-BB%, 16.2 HR/FB). The projected lineup for Houston includes eight RHBs, while Kikuchi has surrendered a .348 wOBA with a matching .340 xwOBA. Every single batter in the projected lineup is above a 110 wRC+ vs LHP over the last calendar year, while Robinson Chirinos (114 wRC+, .155 ISO) is the only RHB below a .200 ISO. Jose Altuve (218 wRC+, .356 ISO) has looked fairly healthy of late. George Springer (150 wRC+, .200 ISO), Alex Bregman (155 wRC+, .265 ISO), Carlos Correa (143 wRC+, .212 ISO) and even Yulieski Gurriel (154 wRC+, .274 ISO) have handed out an abundance of punishment to southpaws.

Mike Minor is another pitcher who started the year surprisingly well but has struggled of late. Minor seemingly broke out to start the year, pitching to a 2.74 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 4.11 xFIP with a 26.1% K rate and 7.8% BB rate despite pitching half his games in hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. Over the last month, Minor does have a 3.08 ERA, but a 5.23 SIERA, 5.57 xFIP, 48.6% FB rate and 9.5% K-BB suggest he’s been pitching well above his head. The Astros have a league-leading 125 wRC+ at home, as well as a league-leading 136 wRC+ vs. LHP. Jose Altuve (.476 xwOBA vs. LHP), George Springer (.440), Yordan Alvarez (.392), Robinson Chirinos (.380), Alex Bregman (.377), Yuli Gurriel (.329) and Michael Brantley (.307) are all great options in the Houston projected order. Gurriel has been the ‘Stros hottest hitter over the past 14 days with a .402 xwOBA, followed by Alex Bregman with a .389 mark. Jose Altuve continues to be underpriced on Draftkings with a price tag of just $4k. Bregman, Brantley and Gurriel can all be had for under $4.3k on DK, while Robinson Chirinos is also a great value at just $3.1k. The Astros don’t project for very high ownership despite how they’ve mashed LHP this year, Minor’s recent struggles, as well as the fact that they are a decently affordable stack. They currently have a 4.85 implied line vs. Minor and the Rangers tonight.

The Astros will face Mike Minor tonight, who has actually been a solid pitcher this year with a 2.54 ERA, 4.43 xFIP and 4.41 SIERA with a 15.5% K-BB. Minor is likely due for at least some regression though, and playing in hitter-friendly Globe Life Park, the Astros still have a favorable 5.34 implied total. Once they chase Minor from the game, the Astros will get plate appearances versus a Rangers’ bullpen that has the 6th worst SIERA (4.51) in baseball. Despite a solid total, the Astros have good value options on both major sites tonight; they are available for $4.7k or less on Draftkings and $4.3k or less on Fanduel. Yordan Alvarez (.461 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Jose Altuve (.441), George Springer (.440), Robinson Chirinos (.385), Alex Bregman (.369), Josh Reddick (.325), Michael Brantley (.316), Yuli Gurriel (.308) and Tyler White (.256) are all options in the projected order. Altuve stands out as the best value as he costs just $3.6k on both sites. George Springer will leadoff and is just $4.7k on Draftkings / $4.3k on Fanduel. Michael Brantley projects to bat 4th and is $4.3k on DK/ $3.8k on Fanduel. Further down the order, Josh Reddick is just $3.5k on DK / $2.9k on FD while Tyler White is $2.6k or less on both sites. Astros hitters will also have the benefit of a hitter-friendly umpire calling balls and strikes in Mike Muchlinski.

Not usually a guy that we’d look to target, Heaney is a talented arm but has struggled since coming off the IL. This, combined with the fact that the night slate is stacked at SP, puts the Astros as the highest implied total tonight. Over the past month, Heaney has struggled to a 5.96 ERA, 5.72 xFIP and 5.15 SIERA with an uncharacteristic 12.5% BB rate. Heaney has been very susceptible to the long ball this year as he has a 53.3% FB rate and a 2.21 HR/9. Heaney is much more vulnerable to right-handed batters; since 2018, he’s allowed a .320 xwOBA to righties compared to a .268 xwOBA vs. lefties. The Astros will stack their lineup with 7 righties tonight: Jose Altuve (.450 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), George Springer (.444), Robinson Chirinos (.397), Alex Bregman (.377), Yuli Gurriel (.312), Jake Marisnick (.301) and Tyler White (.259) are all right-handed bats that are in play. Yordan Alvarez has a .516 xwOBA vs. LHP this year, though in just 18 PA; he’s a tough fade even given Heaney’s splits. Josh Reddick (.318) is also an option. The Astros currently have a 5.41 implied line for this matchup with the Angels.

Brad Peacock and James Paxton sounds like a pitcher’s duel or at least a high upside daily fantasy pitching matchup. They have a combined 54.7 K% with neither owning an xwOBA above .300. Take a closer look though. Peacock combines just an 8.8 SwStr% with a 90 mph aEV, but somehow has allowed just 6.7% Barrels/BBE and struck out 24.2% of batters faced. Over the last month, he’s down to a 21.2 K% with a 4.90 FIP even though his ERA has remained below four. On the season, he has a 5.01 DRA. There appears to be some luck in his game. However, since he has a massive platoon split over the last calendar year (RHBs .251 wOBA, LHBS .373), the best bets to exploit this potential edge appear to be Brett Gardner (97 wRC+, 188 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), if out of the leadoff spot, Aaron Hicks (133 wRC+, .214 ISO) and Didi Gregorius (125 wRC+, .232 ISO). With Aaron Judge (113 wRC+, .174 ISO) expected back tonight, the Yankee lineup could lean predominantly right-handed and if this is the case, it would be something more in Peacock’s favor, although Yankee righties hit same-handed pitching extremely well.

James Paxton is one of the highest upside pitchers in the league, but does not escape scrutiny here either. He rebounded from troublesome starts against the Mets and Blue Jays to fan seven White Sox in six innings with two runs, but his 5.71 ERA since returning comes with a 4.61 SIERA and FIP, along with a .334 xwOBA. He has a 41.4% 95+ mph EV mark on the season and even admitted that his knee still wasn’t 100% upon returning from the DL. A Houston lineup not at full strength still has enough right-handed pop to punish a compromised pitcher (RHBs have a .304 wOBA against Paxton last calendar year). Jose Altuve (158 wRC+, .255 ISO) is back, joining Alex Bregman (180 wRC+, .313 ISO), Yulieski Gurriel (135 wRC+, .210 ISO), Robinson Chirinos (117 wRC+, .194 ISO) and even Jake Marisnick (176 wRC+, .286 ISO) in southpaw destruction over the last 12 months. Important to note that the wind is blowing out to right tonight, giving a dangerous park a further run and power boost tonight.

The Astros are still down a good portion of the top half of their lineup, but the good news is that they’ve still been able to batter Seattle pitching in this series and the hits are likely to keep coming against Mike Leake, who does not miss bats (16.5 K% with a board worst 90.3 Z-Contact%) and generates far too much hard contact (91.5 mph aEV is also worst on the slate). All of this has led to a .367 xwOBA and actual wOBA eight points higher. Despite the 4.71 ERA, 5.62 FIP and 7.34 DRA, the Mariners not only keep trotting him out there, but he’s faced at least 23 batters in every start and failed to complete six innings only three times this year. He’s allowed multiple HRs in seven of his 12 starts and while only one of those was at home, it was his last start against the Angels, which makes three consecutive starts with multiple HRs allowed as well. Alex Bregman (165 wRC+, .296 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) remains the star in this lineup. Michael Brantley (137 wRC+, .184 ISO), Robinson Chirinos (130 wRC+, .243 ISO) and whoever bats leadoff likely have value as well.