Scott Feldman Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
Dodgers and Diamondbacks projected to be extremely popular tonight
While a couple of Oakland batters not named Yonder Alonso crack the 10 potentially most popular hitters on FanDuel tonight the board is otherwise full of Dodgers and Diamondbacks on both sites tonight. Alonso is proejcted to be the third most popular First Baseman (7.5%) on FanDuel ($3.6K) at a loaded position tonight, where Cody Bellinger is the top projected bat and will be more popular on DraftKings due to OF eligibility. First Base is loaded tonight and players shouldn't have to worry about ownership rates too much. In fact, Matt Carpenter is one of four First Base bats with an enormous contrarian rating and just 1% projected ownership on FanDuel in a great spot against Eddie Butler. On the mound, Clayton Kershaw is still projected to be the most popular arm on the slate, though no pitcher is expected to reach more than 20% on FanDuel. Someone like Scott Feldman, who's having a nice year and recently shut out the Giants, could be an interesting SP2 pickup on DraftKings (3% for $7.8K). He gets a significant park upgrade for the rematch. Premium subscribers can see projections for all players on the Projected Ownership page.
Only Kershaw, McCullers and Porcello have a strikeout rate above 22% tonight
Clayton Kershaw is projected for a board leading 8.56 strikeouts tonight according to the RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor and is also projected to be the top overall arm via the RotoGrinders Player Projections. He's facing an offense with an 82 wRC+ at home and 25.1 K% vs LHP at a reduced price. It seems too good to be true, except that he's pitching at Coors tonight and both his K% and SwStr% are down about four points from the last two seasons. 95% of pitchers would still kill for a 24.3 K-BB% and he's still a top play tonight, especially without any other clear options. The next best arm is in Yankee Stadium tonight. Lance McCullers (28.9 K%, 12.3 SwStr%) has been inconsistent with strikeouts from start to start, but has dominated at the point of contact (58.1 GB%, -2.8 Hard-Soft%). He faces an offense with a 145 wRC+ at home and 131 wRC+ vs RHP. Rick Porcello is the only other arm with a strikeout rate above 22% tonight. He sits second on the Daily K Predictor (7.42) and is not in as bad of a spot at home against Tampa Bay (25.9 K% vs RHP), but has allowed four of his seven HRs this season to the Rays and has allowed a concerning 40.4% hard contact rate this season (11.0 Barrels/BBE). There are no safe arms tonight, nor are there any low priced ones with high upside. Perhaps players may be looking more into potentially higher floor guys like Mike Leake (at home vs the Cubs - 86 wRC vs RHP) or Scott Feldman (at San Francisco - 70 wRC+ at home and vs RHP) if the high priced, higher risk arms aren't as appealing.
Wacha and Kershaw projected to be most popular pitchers tonight.
Coors once again rules in popularity among Projected Ownership leaders tonight, but there are so many strong First Base options that players can pivot to potentially low owned options like Joey Votto or Paul Goldschmidt in favorable parks against opposite handed pitchers. Yasmany Tomas is a lefty-masher (144 wRC+, .259 ISO career) projected for less than 10% ownership on either site. Michael Wacha is surprisingly projected to be just as popular as Kershaw tonight, while Scott Feldman has struck out batters at a league average rate and is facing a highly strikeout prone Milwaukee offense (27.2 K% vs RHP) at around 1% projected ownership rates tonight. Premium subscribers can find ownership projections for all players on our Projected Ownership page.
Wade Miley and Scott Feldman may offer low cost K upside vs strikeout prone offenses
Clayton Kershaw is pitching tonight and is therefor projected to be your top strikeout generator, even against maybe the least strikeout prone offense in the National League (SF 19.9 K% vs LHP, 18.7 K% overall). That's not nearly enough to stop Kershaw, but there are some other arms with maybe some hidden strikeout potential on the board tonight. Danny Duffy has struck out a only 21.2% of batters through his first four starts, but has done so with at least a 16 SwStr% three times. The White Sox have been competent against LHP the last few years, but should strike out more than the 17.7% they have so far vs southpaws. Scott Feldman (21.4 K%, 10.3 SwStr%) and Wade Miley (33.3 K%, 8.9 SwStr%) also need to be mentioned, not because of their own prowess (in fact, you should not buy into Miley's K-rate at all), but because they're facing the two most strikeout prone offenses in the majors: the Brewers (86 wRC+, 27.2 K% vs RHP) and the Rays (123 wRC+, 28.8 K% vs LHP) respectively. There's obvious danger in the power represented in those two offenses, but that's why either pitcher costs less than $7K on DraftKings in a potentially high upside spot. Additionally, both sides of the Marco Estrada vs Michael Wacha matchup have exceeded a 12% swinging strike rate and 23 K% this year.
Smith, Mancini, Castillo all OUT of Baltimore lineup tonight, Kim leads off in Cincinnati
Seth Smith, Trey Mancini & Welington Castillo are on the bench for a Baltimore offense projected by Vegas for 4.6 runs, in a virtual tie for the top spot of the night. While it may seem that the biggest factor against them is Kevin's early weather report (ORANGE/YELLOW), Scott Feldman has done a good job managing contact (23.3 Hard%) and has missed more bats than expected (9.5 SwStr%), though his 12.2% Barrels/BBE are highest on the slate. Feldman has also held batters from each side to a sub-.330 wOBA, sub-30 Hard% since 2015. Chris Davis (142 wRC+, .308 ISO vs RHP) is the only qualified batters on the slate that does have an ISO above .300 against the handed type pitcher being faced tonight (since 2015, 30 PA min.). He and Mark Trumbo (123 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP) in the upper portion of the RotoGrinders HR Predictor tonight with a 5.58% chance of going yard. In addition, Manny Machado (132 wRC+, .240 ISO vs RHP) finds himself as the #3 overall bat according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections, while Hyun-Soo Kim (126 wRC+ career vs RHP) shows up as one of the top projected values on FanDuel for just $2.5K. The good news, from a weather standpoint is temperatures near 80 at first pitch with the potential for a breeze out towards left field if it does play. This is a park that is already very power friendly. This is a matchup where players should probably side with bats over arm if forced to choose, but Baltimore bats could potentially be not much better than accurately valued by some expensive price tags.
Clayton Kershaw and Freddie Freeman top RotoGrinders projections tonight
Clayton Kershaw is going to be the top arm almost any time he takes the mound and tonight is no different according to the RotoGrinders projections (47.42 FD, 31.03 DK) with Noah Syndergaard about a touchdown behind him and $1.4K to $2.1K less on either site. For those looking to maximize their point per dollar production, Scott Feldman could be an interesting SP2 on DraftKings, projecting to earn 2.68 points per $1K in salary. He does have a 27.9 K% (10.5 SwStr%) through two starts and faces a strikeout prone Milwaukee offense. Edinson Volquez is projected as the top value on FanDuel for $6.1K. Volquez is a replacement for Conley, who was forced into service last night and will be facing a tired Mets offense on normal rest with an impressive 28.3 K% through two starts, but 45.2% hard contact. Freddie Freeman (vs Jhoulys Chacin) is the top overall projected batter on either site with Corey Seager (vs Zack Greinke) the only batter projected for more than 4 Pt/$/K on FanDuel.
Cincinnati is a power friendly park, hosting two of the bottom offenses in the NL last year.
Cincinnati is a nearly run neutral, but very power friendly park, hosting two of the worst offenses in the National League last year. Cincinnati boasts an Opening Day starter, who only managed a 16.6 K% mostly out of the bullpen last year. For his career, RHBs (.330 wOBA) have been a bit better against Scott Feldman than LHBs (.321). The batter most worth looking at here is Tommy Joseph, who had a 101 wRC+, but .235 ISO and 37.7 Hard% vs RHP last season, putting the ball in the air 45.7% of the time. Unfortunately, he's batting sixth, but he's solidly in bargain territory on FanDuel ($2.1K) for you Kershaw buyers today. On the other side, Jeremy Hellickson was perfectly average in most ways for the Phillies last year. He's not a terrible choice at less than $7K in a decent spot for those who would rather spend on offense, but the upside is somewhat limited. He has been a bit HR prone on occasion, spreading them out evenly to righties and lefties in his career. While Joey Votto (169 wRC+, .254 ISO vs RHP last season) is rarely a poor choice, Adam Duvall (104 wRC+, .260 ISO) showed tremendous power against same handed pitching last year. Scott Schebler (109 wRC+, .171 ISO) is the other batter with some pop in this lineup. He costs $3.6K on DraftKings.
Hunting for Opening Day value at SP
Opening Day typically consists of many of the games best high-end arms, but we'll also see several potential value targets toe the rubber on Monday. It's a little odd to see guys like Scott Feldman, Edinson Volquez and Jeremy Hellickson getting the ball for their respective teams to kick off the year, and while they are certainly guys we'll want to pick on with opposing bats, a few value options on Monday's slate possess some GPP intrigue. Assuming Jon Gray gets the nod for the Rockies in Milwaukee, he'll be one of the top mid-range/punt plays at the SP spot. Gray sits at just $7,800 on DraftKings and $8,200 on FanDuel, giving him a nice ceiling on the road against a Brewers team that finished dead last in all of baseball in K% (25.8%) and 27th in wRC+ (87) against RH pitching. Both Jeremy Hellickson and Scott Feldman are also potential punt plays that will be facing off with one another in Cincinnati. Feldman is priced at or near the minimum across the industry, and if he's able to pick up a cheap win with a couple strikeouts to boot, he'd be a nice option on multi-SP sites that would allow you to load up on bats. Paying down at pitcher isn't a necessity on Monday - there is plenty of value to be had with hitters, mainly on the Dodgers, Phillies and Reds - but it's certainly a viable way to differentiate in GPPs.
Xander Bogaerts is back and batting 3rd
Bogaerts is back and batting third for the Red Sox against the soft-throwing Scott Feldman. After getting hit by a pitch a couple of days ago, Bogaerts returns to play in a game with a modest Vegas projected run total of 4.18 runs.
Feldman has reverse platoon split, generates weak contact, not Ks
Scott Feldman's career 14.4 K% and 6.7 SwStr% pretty much disqualifies him from much consideration in all but the best spots. This isn't one of them. However, we can't just stack up power LH bats against him and be done with it because he has had a 1.5 GB/FB or better each of the last three years and a career 26.1 Hard%. Further, he exhibits a small reverse platoon split for his career that is more pronounced since last season (.346 wOBA vs RHBs). It looks like DeShields (97 wRC+ vs RHP since last season, 265 wRC+ last seven days) and Beltre (91, 128) might be the bats tonight, though neither has hit for much power vs RHPs. You don't have to stay away from the LHBs, but perhaps Moreland (127 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP since last season, 171 wRC+ last seven days) is the better and cheaper option than Fielder (135 wRC+, .150 ISO vs RHP, -50 wRC+ last seven). Moreland also leads Fielder in average exit velocity by nearly 6 mph (92.77 to 86.99) this season.