Shane Baz Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Chris Sale registered a strong 21.8 K-BB% in nine starts this year against marginal opposition. A 47.4 GB% was his highest mark in a decade in addition to an 84.6 mph EV and just 3.5% Barrels/BBE. Sale’s 3.14 ERA was below all estimators, but only a 4.08 DRA was much more than half a run higher. Two of Sale’s starts were against the Rays and while they put up seven runs in 9.2 innings, only three were earned. He did strike out just nine of 48 though. The Rays finished with a 107 wRC+ vs LHP this year (114 at home). This is a solidly negative and weather controlled environment in Tampa Bay, but Sale does have one of the worst defenses in baseball behind him though (-30 Runs Prevented).

This combination of factors actually gives the Rays the second highest implied run line on the board (4.01) behind only the Astros. Sale had a massive split by wOBA this year (over 200 points) and still a 53 point one by xwOBA, but Statcast did bring RHBs down to a .295 xwOBA. Wander Franco (181 wRC+, .245 ISO) and Mike Zunino (243 wRC+, .526 ISO) punished LHP this year and yes, those Zunino numbers are real over 114 PAs. Randy Arozarena (153 wRC+, .233 ISO) has already begun re-establishing his October presence this year.

Shane Baz may have just 13.1 innings and 49 major league batters under his resume and the Rays aren’t likely to let him get too deep into this game, but he’s struck out 18 (16.2 SwStr%) with just three walks and a 36 K% at AAA this year too (46 innings). He did allow three home runs (six at AAA), but that encompassed all of the barrels he allowed too (10.7%). With a strikeout rate that high, a barely double digit barrel rate on contact is less of an issue. The Red Sox had a 109 wRC+ vs LHP this year, but Baz has one of the best defenses in baseball behind him (+27 Runs Prevented) in a great park. His cost is low enough that he’s an interesting SP2 on DraftKings ($6.3K) even if we suspect he gets through the order twice and with a one game lead, perhaps Kevin Cash is more lenient.

Considering Baz’s small sample dominance, the bullpen, defense and environment, it’s difficult to push too hard for Boston bats, especially with speculation that Rafael Devers (152 wRC+, .341 ISO vs RHP), along with J.D. Martinez (135 wRC+, .246 ISO), may be playing while compromised, but Kyle Schwarber’s production (157 wRC+, .359 ISO) can’t be ignored.