Tim Anderson Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

A 28 team board on Friday finds just two offenses above five implied runs, with the Twins and Angels slightly separating from the rest of the board, but still below a five and a half run team total. We then have eight more teams above four and a half runs, a mark just a bit over one-third of the board gets to. It’s an absolute lock then when you find the Angels with a top of the board team run total, you’ll find Mike Trout (191 wRC+, .378 ISO vs RHP since 2021), Shohei Ohtani (150 wRC+, .298 ISO) and Taylor Ward (138 wRC+, .228 ISO) as top projected bats and, in fact, all three among the top eight projected hitters by PlateIQ tonight against Chris Flexen, who has a very hitter friendly contact profile (33 GB%, 90.4 mph EV, 10.2% Barrels/BBE) to go with an 8.6 K-BB%. (Although, this doesn’t mean Flexen, himself, is unusable at a low price in a high upside spot against a lineup that strikes out a ton.) Trout is the top projected batter on either site. Batters from either side of the plate have a wOBA and xwOBA between .330 and .350 since last year.

The only other offense with multiple top 10 projected bats is not Minnesota though. Byron Buxton (154 wRC+, .337 ISO) is the only top projected Twin against German Marquez (batters from either side of the plate between a .319 and .327 wOBA and xwOBA against since last season). The Chicago White Sox is the team that’s popping in PlateIQ projections tonight and if we stretch it out to top 11 projected bats on either site, that list includes four White Sox. Austin Voth is replacing Kyle Bradish tonight. He threw 41 pitches in his first start, which means Chicago will be seeing a lot of the Baltimore bullpen that has actually been top of the league by ERA (3.20) and FIP (3.40) over the last 30 days, but more middling in terms of xFIP (4.07) and SIERA (3.86). Voth, who has pitched almost exclusively in relief, has held RHBs below a .300 wOBA & xwOBA since last season, while LHBs are slightly above .300. The White Sox generally offer a predominantly right-handed lineup, of which Tim Anderson (123 wRC+, .144 ISO), Luis Robert (124 wRC+, .156 ISO), Jose Abreu (119 wRC+, .177 ISO) and Andrew Vaughn (94 wRC+, .132 ISO) are projected to do the most damage and likely comprise the top half of this order.

Michael Pineda was awful in three June starts before hitting the IL for a month. He returned to allow five runs to these White Sox over five innings, striking out five of 25 batters without a walk, but just a 6.1 SwStr%, 35 GB% and 91.1 mph EV. His velocity, which was trending downward in June, declined even further. For the season, Pineda’s 4.11 ERA is below all of his estimators. Considering the above, the White Sox are just one of three teams above five implied runs on tonight’s eight game slate (although games in Washington and New York have yet to be posted). While Pineda has actually struggled more against LHBs this year (.340 wOBA to .314), Statcast suggests that should be reversed (.319 xwOBA to .352). In that case, Tim Anderson (128 wRC+, .154 ISO) would be an ideal candidate for daily fantasy lineups and that’s backed up by the short history these two share. In 18 PAs against Pineda, Anderson has a .487 xwOBA with three home runs and three doubles. Despite the small sample size, we can’t ignore the damage Gavin Sheets is doing to RHP (181 wRC+, .432 ISO) and that he costs less than $3.3K on either site. Lastly, we’ll note that every batter in the currently projected lineup for home team is above a 115 wRC+ over the last 30 days.

Kwang-hyun Kim a 2.07 ERA over 65.1 major league innings with batters from either side below a .300 wOBA against him. So, why do the White Sox have the highest implied run line on the slate (4.85) by more than a quarter of a run. There are several very good reasons for this actually. We could start with Kim’s 4.56 xERA this year, which matches his career 4.57 SIERA. Also via Statcast, RHBs have a .337 xwOBA against him since last season, a 47 point jump from his actual results. Next, the projected lineup for the White Sox (135 wRC+ vs LHP) includes eight RHBs, all except Leury Garcia owning a wRC+ above 110 against southpaws since last season. Jose Abreu, Andrew Vaughn and Tim Anderson all exceed a 150 wRC+ and .340 ISO against LHP since 2020. Yasmani Grandal and Yermin Mercedes exceed 170 and .215. In other words, this lineup is loaded and should Kim see an early exit, the onslaught could continue against a St Louis bullpen with a 5.02 xFIP and 4.88 SIERA over the last 30 days. Kim’s results have been strong, but there are underlying issues and this is a dangerous spot where he could be exposed.

If you take the ERA, SIERA, xFIP and FIP for every bullpen over the last 30 days and add them up, then divide by four, we see a season high five bullpens exceeding five today. The Reds are off the board and you aren’t going to attack Zac Gallen with poor Miami bats. The Royals (5.01) and Tigers (5.65) are playing in Detroit. The home team is facing one of the highest priced pitchers on the board and has been terrible vs LHP. Casey Mize has kept the ball on the ground, but his strikeout rate has dropped to 16.3%. This is great news! Load up on Kansas City bats. The problem with that is that Mize has a massive split (RHBs .286 wOBA, LHBs .418 wOBA in his short career) and except for Andrew Benintendi (100 wRC+, .152 ISO vs RHP since 2019) and Carlos Santana (120 wRC+, .206 ISO), the rest of the competent bats in the lineup are all right-handed. At least Benintendi and Santana are two of the three batters projected who own a wRC+ above 100 over the last 30 days for the Royals. Additionally, Statcast brings RHBs up to a .340 xwOBA against Mize, while holding LHBs above .400, so Sal Perez (163 wRC+, .280 ISO) is certainly still in play here.

The surprising bullpen here is the Twins (5.20). Weather Edge tells us that conditions might be an issue here, but that could change and it may be the only issue for the White Sox. J.A. Happ is flying well below his estimators due to a .171 BABIP, 85.6 LOB% and 5 HR/FB. He’s struck out just 16 of 109 batters (6.8 SwStr%) with a 38.5 GB% and 90.7 mph EV. He’s been lucky that just two of eight Barrels (9.5%) have left the yard. Despite being down a couple of key RH bats, the projected lineup for the White Sox includes just two batters below a 100 wRC+ vs LHP since 2019 and just two below a 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. Tim Anderson, Yasmani Grandal and Jose Abreu all exceed a 140 wRC+ and .240 ISO against southpaws since 2019. The White Sox are expected to stack the lineup entirely with RHBs and Happ has a .326 wOBA (.330 xwOBA) against batters from that side over the same time span. The White Sox are right in the middle of the board at four implied runs. Cold weather may slow them down, but Minnesota pitching shouldn’t.

Attacking a poor starting pitcher is not the only way players can find daily fantasy success. An often under-valued aspect of the game is in the bullpens, which are sharing a larger percentage of innings than ever before. It’s no secret at this point that the Tigers have the worst bullpen in baseball (adding SIERA, ERA, xFIP and FIP divided by four gives them a league worst 5.74). Casey Mize has increased his ground ball rate, but still doesn’t strike out many batters and has platoon issues (wOBA & xwOBA above .400 career), which puts Carlos Santana (116 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP since 2019) on our radar tonight in a predominantly RH lineup. We also expect to see the Rockies (4.90) among the worst bullpens, but we don’t need much more extolling on the virtues of visiting teams at Coors today. The Cincinnati bullpen (5.28) was worked hard in this week’s series against the Diamondbacks and is without a solidified closer right now. Sonny Gray may not be a pitcher worth attacking in a tough St Louis park, especially when most of the power comes from the right side. A surprise entrant on our worst bullpen is the Tampa Bay bullpen (4.82), but Tyler Glasnow gets the start. Moving down the list one more spot, we find the Texas bullpen (4.56) in Chicago tonight. Dane Dunning has impressed, but has been limited to 75 pitches in each start. He’s often been followed by lefty Taylor Hearn, but that could give powerful RH bats like Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Yermin Mercedes, Luis Robert and Yasmani Grandal an additional advantage, as they’ve pummeled LHP in recent years. Dunning’s early success (and trade revenge narrative) could push players off White Sox bats tonight, but everyone in the projected lineup with more than 30 PAs against RHP since 2019 is either league average or better by wRC+ and they’ll also get the benefit of facing one of the worst bullpens in the league by the fifth inning or so.