Todd Frazier Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Pitching is a mess on this slate and Keuchel is one of the “better” pitchers going tonight against the Mets. As a result he will likely see decently high ownership, but if you’re looking to get super contrarian and gain some leverage the play might be to stack against him. Over the course of his career, Keuchel has been much worse in road starts. Since 2015 Keuchel has posted a 2.70 ERA / 3.09 FIP, 15.5% K-BB and .270 xwOBA allowed in home starts compared to a 4.14 ERA / 4.21 FIP, 12% K-BB and .314 xwOBA allowed in road starts. Keuchel also has pretty wide platoon splits as he’s posted a .303 xwOBA vs. RHB compared to a .250 xwOBA vs. LHB in that span, and the Mets’ lineup projects to have only 2 lefties tonight. Keuchel’s xwOBA allowed vs. righties in away games this year is an ugly .379 over 164 plate appearances. JD Davis (.418 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Pete Alonso (.396), Wilson Ramos (.361), Amed Rosario (.332), Todd Frazier (.325) and Michael Conforto (.303) are all potential options. Rosario and Davis project to hit 1-2 in the order and each cost only $4k on Draftkings. Ramos and Frazier are nice values as well as they are $4.4k and $3.6k, respectively. The Mets have just a 4.14 implied total but figure to see very low ownership and are worth a shot in tournaments tonight.

Citi Field is just one of two non-controlled environments tonight and the weather is expected to play a part. Temperatures are warmer than usual for this time of year (above 80 degrees) with winds blowing out to center up to 20 mph. The pattern is so rare that Weather Edge doesn’t have any matching conditions. Caleb Smith would likely be the more negatively affected pitcher if Citi Field were to become a neutral or better run scoring or power environment. While his 27.4 K% and 79.1 Z-Contact% are top three marks on the board, he has just a 26.9 GB%. He’s been able to generate a near league average 15.8 HR/FB due to a power suppressing home park. His 10.9% Barrels/BBE is second worst on the board. Then there’s also the fact that he’s collapsed down the stretch. He has just a 21 K% over the last month with a 6.08 ERA and .342 xwOBA. His only quality start in his last six was against the Royals at home. The Mets have a 108 wRC+ and 17 HR/FB at home, a 112 wRC+ and 17.2 HR/FB vs LHP and a 117 wRC+ and 27.1 HR/FB over the last seven days. Implied for 5.31 runs, the Mets are just third on a ten team board, but could be the most potent offense on the board. Each of the first six batters in the Mets’ lineup is above a 125 wRC+ vs LHP this season with Amed Rosario (128 wRC+, .206 ISO), Pete Alonso (143 wRC+, .350 ISO), J.D. Davis (134 wRC+, .211 ISO) and Todd Frazier (144 wRC+, .267 ISO) all above a .200 ISO. Wilson Ramos (153 wRC+, .184 ISO) doesn’t quite reach that mark, but may be the top catcher on the board tonight anyway.

The game in New York tonight will feature two southpaws against two offenses who have done a lot of damage to LHPs this year. Both Robbie Ray and Steven Matz have been above average pitchers with an ERA right around four, but both are also among the bottom three on the board in terms of Barrels/BBE.

Over his last four starts, Ray has walked 16.7% of batters and while his strikeout rate has remained consistent at 30.6%, it does so with a drop in SwStr to 11% over that span. His 10.2% Barrels/BBE is second worst on the board. Ray has also been merely average vs RHBs this year (.328 wOBA, .325 xwOBA). The projected lineup for the Mets features five RHBs above a 125 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs LHP this year: Amed Rosario (131 wRC+, .213 ISO), Pete Alonso (151 wRC+, .366 ISO), J.D. Davis (131 wRC+, .205 ISO), Wilson Ramos (159 wRC+, .196 ISO) and Todd Frazier (128 wRC+, .231 ISO). More interestingly, Alonso is the only one above $4K on DraftKings or $3K on FanDuel.

Steven Matz has been quite a bit better recently and perhaps doesn’t deserve to be attacked that hard. He has a 2.17 ERA and .258 xwOBA over the last month, though a SIERA two runs higher over that span and has allowed 9.1% Barrels/BBE on the year. The projected lineup for the Diamondbacks does not contain a single left-handed bat and while Matz has allowed just a .314 wOBA to RHBs with a supporting .312 xwOBA, 18 of his 23 HRs have been surrendered to batters from that side. The Arizona projected lineup features five batters above a 140 wRC+ and .250 ISO against southpaws this season: Ketel Marte (146 wRC+, .294 ISO), Eduardo Escobar (128 wRC+, .277 ISO), Wilmer Flores (147 wRC+, .315 ISO), Nick Ahmed (144 wRC+, .260 ISO) and Carson Kelly (193 wRC+, .333 ISO). Weather and umpire may also lean towards boosting offense in a normally very negative run environment, as premium subscribers can confirm. With both teams implied for just 4.25 runs tonight, this could be a sneaky spot for offense.

Jon Lester has had a great career, but is clearly a pitcher in decline in his age 35 season. While there’s nothing wrong with being a league average pitcher at that age, the amount of hard contact he’s allowed recently has been concerning. Along with a .386 xwOBA over the last 30 days, he has now allowed 8.3% Barrels/BBE on the season with a DRA that’s crept above five (5.09). In four of his last five starts, he’s allowed at least three runs in no more than five innings and the “good” start over that span came against one of the worst offenses in the league against LHP (Pirates), a game in which Lester walked five without allowing a run. While Citi Field should be considered an upgrade for pitchers, Lester will be facing a predominantly right-handed lineup with quite a bit of power, who have been tough on southpaws this year (111 wRC+, 17.3 HR/FB). Oddsmakers are still buying into Lester. A 4.13 implied run line for the Mets puts them on the bottom half of the board. This offers DFS players a contrarian opportunity. RHBs have a .317 wOBA, .329 xwOBA vs Lester over the last calendar year, while LHBs have been even better (.366 wOBA, .383 xwOBA). Look for Amed Rosario (144 wRC+, .221 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Jeff McNeil (135 wRC+, .156 ISO) at the top of the order ahead of some combination J.D. Davis (128 wRC+, .186 ISO), Pete Alonso (149 wRC+, .387 ISO), Wilson Ramos (136 wRC+, .173 ISO), Todd Frazier (112 wRC+, .207 ISO) and Michael Conforto (96 wRC+, .181 ISO). Only Alonso and Conforto are above $3K on FanDuel where a Mets stack might also get you their pitcher, the top overall arm on the mound tonight.

Conditions in Philadelphia call for an offensive bump (despite a pitcher friendly umpire) and Jason Vargas and Nick Pivetta may be just the pitchers to provide some fireworks. Vargas has followed up a run of one run or less in six of seven outings with 10 runs (eight earned) over his last 14.2 innings (10 K, 7 BB, 2 HR) and the threat of physical violence against a reporter. With an 8.1 K-BB%, .266 BABIP, 9.7 HR/FB, 5.89 DRA and .322 xwOBA, regression was always coming for him. It was just a matter of how hard it was going to hit. To his credit, he owns a board low 86.2 mph aEV on the season and still has a .288 xwOBA over the last month. That’s where the temperature near 90 degrees comes in. It will likely carry those baseballs a bit further. Each of the first five in the projected Philadelphia batting order (Scott Kingery, Jean Segura, Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto) are all above a 100 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year with the lefty, Harper, having the most success (146 wRC+, .270 ISO).

On the other end, Nick Pivetta has allowed five HRs over his last two starts and multiple HRs in five of his nine starts overall. A quarter of his fly balls have left the yard this year, which is the same percentage of his overall contact that have been line drives. So while his non-FIP estimators are closer to four and a half, his .372 xwOBA is just eight points away from his actual mark. He’s striking out fewer batters this year with 10.8% of his contact qualifying as Barrels. Batters from either side of the plate have exactly a .328 xwOBA against Pivetta over the last calendar year (with actual wOBAs a bit higher). Each of the first seven Mets in the projected order are above a 100 wRC+ vs RHP over the last 12 months with Pete Alonso (146 wRC+, .305 ISO), Michael Conforto (139 wRC+, .256 ISO), Todd Frazier (108 wRC+, .210 ISO) and Dominic Smith (124 wRC+, .228 ISO) flashing the most power. Robinson Cano (110 wRC+, .193 ISO) continues to be very cheap due to recent struggles.

The Mets have a 79 wRC+, 25.1 K% and 9.3 HR/FB vs LHP. Their 4.9 implied run line tonight is mostly a product of very favorable hitting weather at Wrigley, especially for RHBs with winds blowing out to left-center. It's also a product of Jon Lester's .319 wOBA against LHBs, which xwOBA pushes all the way up to .359. Amed Rosario (77 wRC+, .124 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) hasn't done much, but is an affordable leadoff bat with great stolen base potential should he be able to reach. Todd Frazier (92 wRC+, .219 ISO) is probably the highest upside bat in this lineup and leads it with a 136 wRC+ over the last week with three HRs.