Tommy Edman Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Matt Harvey sat at 93.5 mph (same as last year), allowing two HRs, but also striking out four of the 15 Reds he faced with a 13 SwStr%. Enough to get him another start in St Louis, even if he didn’t generate a single ground ball with a 96.2 mph aEV (two Barrels). He hasn’t had an exit velocity below 90 mph since 2017. The Cardinals have had patience (10.5 BB%) without power (11.3 HR/FB) vs RHP. LHBs have a .404 wOBA and .269 ISO against Harvey since last season. Tommy Edman (.323 wOBA, .158 ISO vs RHP since 2019) is a top of the order bat below $3K on FanDuel. While you probably want to stack a patient team without power against Harvey, Edman should be in the middle of any rallies tonight and represents a great value bat.

Ironically, with similarly expected conditions to Yankee Stadium tonight (temperatures in the mid-60s and negligible wind effects), Weather Edge is showing a run and power decline in such games, which makes quite a bit more sense. Overall, this park has been a positive run environment, though not as much of a power haven as Yankee Stadium.

Dakota Hudson is the low man on the pitching pole today. His 18 K% is more than 10 points below any other pitcher today with a 5.08 SIERA that’s the only mark above four and a .335 xwOBA that’s more than 30 points higher than anyone else. What he does do is keep the ball on the ground for the most part (56.9%) with that mark jumping to 63.9% against RHBs, who had a .285 wOBA and .302 xwOBA against him this year. It makes one wonder if either Asdrubal Cabrera (99 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP) or Matt Adams (89 wRC+, .138 ISO) could see the field over Howie Kendrick (136 wRC+, .221 ISO) or Ryan Zimmerman (65 wRC+, .148 ISO) tonight, as LHBs had a .347 wOBA (.369 xwOBA) with a 49.6 GB% against Hudson, but why fix what’s not broken? Juan Soto (155 wRC+, .303 ISO) may be the top overall bat on the slate. Adam Eaton (108 wRC+, .152 ISO) may be your top value. The Nationals top the board with 4.23 implied runs.

On the brink of elimination, a lineup shuffle for the Cardinals in game three had no effect, and there’s probably not much more they could do in game four either. With a 3-0 series lead, Patrick Corbin likely has the longest leash tonight and costs less than $10K on either site. His 28.5 K%, 3.88 SIERA, 3.09 DRA and .303 xwOBA hardly stand out on a four man board that includes Gerrit Cole or even his own rotation, though he was likely one of the top 10 pitchers in the National League. Corbin did have that awful relief outing against the Dodgers, but still struck out 14 of the 41 he faced in the series. Corbin does have the highest aEV (88.9 mph) and Barrels/BBE (9.4%) on the board, so it’s the strikeout rate that really gives him value and it does make some middle of the order St Louis bats interesting here. Paul Goldschmidt (148 wRC+), Marcell Ozuna (92 wRC+), Jose Martinez (160 wRC+) and Tommy Edman (151 wRC+) all exceeded a .260 ISO vs LHP this year, while Yadier Molina (130 wRC+, .147 ISO) had a .382 xwOBA with the platoon advantage, but has the disadvantage of having the speed of a 37 year-old catcher.

The game in St Louis features the two highest ground ball rates in baseball this year (more than 100 IP), but also the only two strikeout rates on the board lower than 23% in Dallas Keuchel (18.7 K%, 60.1 GB%) and Dakota Hudson (18 K%, 56.9 GB%). They are also the only pitchers on the board above a .300 wOBA (both are above .330) and above 35.5% 95+ mph EV (both are above 38%). While these are clearly the bottom two pitchers on the board from a daily fantasy standpoint and further burdened by the prospect of elimination (in Hudson’s case) or working on just three days rest (in Keuchel’s case), none the less, either must be considered in a secondary role on DraftKings, where they’re the two lowest priced pitchers on the board. One reason is the favorable environment in St Louis, a clear pitcher’s park in the cooler months of the season. Another is the fact that it’s hard to call any pitcher really safe today. Even Max Scherzer fails to fit that description in an elimination game against the Dodgers.

All that said, this is certainly not a spot to avoid batters either. RHBs were right around a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Keuchel this season, still with a 59.3 GB%, but much lower than LHBs (.277 wOBA, 70 GB%). The frightening thing here though, is that this St Louis lineup features just three batters above a .150 ISO vs LHP this year and also just three above a 97 wRC+. Tommy Edman (151 wRC+, .262 ISO) is just one of two above both and he’s batting seventh. The other, and clearly the most coveted batter in this lineup, is Paul Goldschmidt (148 wRC+, .298 ISO).

For the road team, Hudson’s splits have been even worse. LHBs are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA this year with a ground ball rate (50.2%) nearly 15 points lower. This makes Freddie Freeman (154 wRC+, .280 ISO vs RHP) the clear top bat here, but also adds value to cheaper bats in Nick Markakis (112 wRC+, .147 ISO), Matt Joyce (131 wRC+, .163 ISO) and Brian McCann (97 wRC+, .178 ISO), who has very similar numbers to Ozzie Albies against RHP (98 wRC+, .177 ISO) this year.

Temperatures in Atlanta are expected to be the highest they’ve been all season (mid to upper 90s). While this was already the game to target for offense today due to inferior pitching, the weather only makes it more attractive. Dallas Keuchel (18.7%) and Miles Mikolas (18.5%) have essentially the same strikeout rate with the two west coast pitchers tonight both around 10 points higher. Keuchel (23.9%) has a HR/FB 7.8 points higher than Mikolas, the second highest rate on the board, but he also generates grounders at a 60.1% clip with the other three pitchers below 50%. This should help him better deal with conditions. Statcast numbers are basically the same for Mikolas (87.8 mph aEV, 6.3% Barrels/BBE) and Keuchel (88 mph aEV, 6.9% Barrels/BBE).

Both offenses in this game have implied run lines above four with the Braves topping the board by more than a full half run at 4.83. Both pitchers had a wOBA and xwOBA between .330 and .340 against opposite handed batters this season. While Keuchel dominates lefties (.268 wOBA, .302 xwOBA, 68.8 GB%), Mikolas has been merely average (.307 wOBA, .320 xwOBA) with the platoon advantage.

Your top overall bats today are probably the competing first basemen in this game: Freddie Freeman (158 wRC+, .285 ISO vs RHP) and Paul Goldschmidt (145 wRC+, .313 ISO). Tommy Edman was better from the RH side (155 wRC+, .272 ISO), but is the second highest priced batter in this game on DraftKings, though just $3.1K on FanDuel. Josh Donaldson (134 wRC+, .274 ISO) costs a very reasonable $4.3K on DraftKings. DraftKings makes the dynamic even more difficult, where you have to choose two pitchers and Mikolas costs just $5.5K, allowing players to focus on offense, but this remains a very dangerous spot.

Considering a potential washout in Kansas City and likely pitcher friendly conditions in Philadelphia, Milwaukee may easily be the most positive run environment on the board without another park coming even close tonight. This means players need to look at both offenses very seriously tonight. While the Brewers are currently the top offense on the board, the Cardinals check in at a 4.66 implied run line that places them fourth. While Gio Gonzalez has been about average vs RHBs over the last calendar year (.316 wOBA, .336 xwOBA), the advantage for the Cardinals here is that Gio’s 3.64 ERA is well below his 4.89 SIERA and 4.40 DRA, while his .344 xwOBA is 30 points worse than his actual results. A .361 xwOBA over the last 30 days is 40 points worse. His ground ball rate is down to 40.2% this year, which has resulted in 8.4% Barrels/BBE. While he did strike out six Brewers in five innings with just one run in his last start, he did walk four and the advantage generally goes to the offense seeing a pitcher for the second straight outing. Paul Goldschmidt (121 wRC+, .274 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is unquestionably your top overall bat here. He has a 52% hard hit rate over the last week and is not even that expensive ($4.5K DK, $3.7K FD). Tommy Edman (113 wRC+, .200 ISO) bats second, Marcell Ozuna (99 wRC+, .278 ISO) is in the cleanup spot, and Dexter Fowler (100 wRC+, .176 ISO) should have some value at the top of the order.

While Peter Lambert’s last 30 days have been rough (7.56 ERA / 6.35 SIERA, -0.9% K-BB, 5% SwStr) they aren’t terribly far off from his overall 2019 stats (6.55 ERA / 5.24 SIERA, 7.4% K-BB, 6.5% SwStr). He’s simply just not a good pitcher and can be targeted whether he’s pitching in Coors or not. Lambert does own a solid 47.1% GB rate, but still gives up a lot of home runs (1.77 HR/9), doesn’t miss enough bats and walks too many hitters to prevent giving up runs in bunches. Lambert does have a very wide platoon split over 66 innings this year (.376 xwOBA vs. LHP, .307 xwOBA vs. RHP) but I wouldn’t shy away from Cardinals’ righties in this spot. Marcell Ozuna (.392 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Dexter Fowler (.342), Paul Goldschmidt (.336), Paul DeJong (.333), Harrison Bader (.318), Kolten Wong (.297) and Tommy Edman (.293) are all in play tonight vs. Lambert. Though the Cardinals offense has largely struggled over the past few months, their top of the order guys have begun to heat up of late as Ozuna, Goldschmidt and Fowler all have an xwOBA over .400 over the past 2 weeks. Fowler is quietly enjoying a nice bounceback season and is leading off at just $4.2k on Draftkings tonight. The Cardinals should have slightly low ownership tonight despite a good matchup and solid 5.09 implied total.

Alex Wood is still shaking off the rust a bit, as he will make his 5th start of 2019 this afternoon vs. the Cardinals. So far in 19 and 1/3 innings, Wood has a 5.59 ERA / 4.40 xFIP with a 2.79 HR/9, 14.5% K-BB, 46.2% hard contact rate and 10.1% SwStr. Per Statcast, he’s allowed a .365 xwOBA, 7.7% barrel rate and 87.7 MPH aEV. Wood has been a bit worse vs. RHB: since 2017, he’s allowed a .303 xwOBA vs. righties compared to a .270 xwOBA vs. lefties. Paul Goldschmidt (.469 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Matt Carpenter (.386), Marcell Ozuna (.365), Yadier Molina (.334), Paul Dejong (.318) and Tommy Edman (.300) are all good options in the STL order. Ozuna has been their best hitter over the past 2 weeks with a .396 xwOBA. Matt Carpenter will be batting 2nd and costs just $3.6k on DK. Goldschmidt (batting 3rd, $4.2k), Dejong (batting 5th, $4k), Molina (batting 6th, $3.1k) and Edman (batting 1st, $4.2k) are also nice values. The Cardinals figure to be a slightly contrarian stack on this slate, even though they do have a solid 5.10 implied line.