Trevor Richards Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Trevor Richards will be called up to start this game for the Rays and finds himself in a nice spot versus one of the worst offenses in the league. Richards has so far had a rough year, posting a 4.50 ERA, 5.33 xFIP and 5.11 SIERA with a 1.38 WHIP, 10.8% K-BB and 11.7% SwStr. Perhaps a change of scenery will help Richards, especially going to a Rays’ team that has been known to be able to get the most out of its players. So far this year, the Tigers have a league worst 73 wRC+ and 26.5% K rate vs. RHP. They also have just a 76 wRC+ over the past 30 days, and their lineup has weakened even further after trading Nick Castellanos at the trade deadline. The Tigers’ projected lineup has just one hitter with an xwOBA vs. RHP greater than .325 on the year. Richards is just $7k on Draftkings and even cheaper at $6.4k on Fanduel; he’ll likely see high ownership but looks to be the best pitcher by far in his price range on this slate.

With all the weather concern on the east coast tonight, one place where players won’t have to worry about a rain delay or cancellation is in Miami and it offers players a pretty solid pitching matchup as well. Or at least two below average offenses in an extremely negative run environment. Chris Paddack has struck out 14 of his last 43 batters, allowing one run over two starts after the Padres gave him a bit of a break. He’ll take a 21.2 K-BB% and 86.1 mph aEV up against the Marlins (78 wRC+, 18 K-BB%, 11.2 HR/FB vs RHP). Estimators are about a run above Paddack’s 2.84 ERA due to a .224 BABIP and five of his 31 runs being unearned, but a .277 xwOBA is a bit more optimistic. The drawback is that Paddack costs $10.9K on DraftKings and only averages 21 batters per game. He’s $2.6K less on FanDuel though.

Trevor Richards with just a 20.8 K% and 10.6 BB%. He’s also allowed at least three runs in under six innings in four of his last five starts with non-FIP estimators well above his 4.18 ERA due to a 10.7 HR/FB, but if that’s sustainable anywhere in the current HR environment, it might be Miami, while an 86.5 mph aEV and 6.6% Barrels/BBE suggests he may deserve it, projecting a .312 xwOBA that’s a bit better than league average. The attraction here is that Richards costs $7.3K or less and will be facing a San Diego offense with an 18.8 K-BB% vs RHP.

As it has already been mentioned, it’s tough to find pitching tonight, especially if you’re not paying up for DeGrom or Scherzer. Trevor Richards gets a decent matchup at home with the Mets tonight, who have a middle-of-the-road 99 wRC+ and 23.5 K% vs. RHP this year but will be without one of their best bats in Michael Conforto. Richards does have an ugly 4.46 ERA / 5.58 xFIP / 5.11 SIERA on the year. That said, he still has an impressive 13.2% SwStr, a respectable .329 xwOBA allowed, and three pitches (fastball, change, cutter) with positive p-vals on the year. Though the Marlins will be heavy underdogs facing DeGrom, this game has just a 6.5 O/U in pitcher-friendly Marlins Park and the Mets have just a 3.81 implied total vs. Richards. Richards can be had for just $7.2k on Draftkings and $6.4k on Fanduel despite the advantageous home park and decent matchup. He has a 4.00 ERA and .292 wOBA allowed in Marlins Park compared to a 4.92 ERA and .356 wOBA allowed on the road in his career.

Trevor Richards has a nice matchup with the Washington Nationals today who are now without Anthony Rendon as well as Trea Turner. Richards gets the start at home where he has been much better in his young career (.293 wOBA allowed at home vs. .341 wOBA allowed away). Richards has heavy reverse splits (.286 wOBA vs. LHB, .344 vs. RHB) and will face only 3 LHB this afternoon vs. the Nationals. Still, the Nationals have the 6th highest K rate in the league at 25.5%. Richards has a career K rate of 9.12 per 9 and will have decent K upside at under $7.5k on both major sites in one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball. He’ll also have a plus pitcher framer behind the plate in Chad Wallach and a pitcher-friendly umpire in CB Bucknor. The Nats have a 3.91 implied line vs. Richards and the Marlins on Sunday.