Tucker Barnhart Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Mike Leake has looked off to say the least, posting a 6.98 ERA, 5.78 SIERA and 5.96 xFIP with a miniscule 6.9% K rate and 2.43 HR/9. Leake has just 4 strikeouts over his past 18 and 2/3 innings and has posted a hard contact rate above 50% 3 of his last 6 starts (above 40% in 5 of his last 6 starts). Leake has been more vulnerable when pitching away from home, posting a .354 xwOBA on the road compared to a .329 xwOBA at home since 2017. The Reds are msising some firepower in their lineup but still have some good options for today: Derek Dietrich (.366 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Joey Votto (.356), Josh VanMeter (.338), Eugenio Suarez (.328), Tucker Barnhart (.298), Jose Iglesias (.281) and Freddy Galvis (.275) are all options in this matchup. With the exception of Votto ($4.1k) and Suarez ($5.3k), all Reds’ batters are available for under $4k on Draftkings despite a solid 5.00 implied total. VanMeter (leading off at $3.8k), Barnhart (batting 4th at $3.2k) both look like some of the better values on the slate.

For the second straight year, Julio Teheran is posting an ERA than is much better than his estimators. This year, there’s an even larger gap between his ERA (3.38) and his estimators (5.16 xFIP, 5.03 SIERA). Statcast does have him at a middling .322 xwOBA allowed on the year, so it’s possible his true talent falls somewhere between his ERA and estimators. Teheran is much more vulnerable vs. LHP; since 2017, Teheran has allowed a .349 xwOBA to lefties compared to just a .300 xwOBA to righties. The Reds have 5 left-handed bats in their lineup this afternoon that are all in play: Derek Dietrich (.374 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Josh VanMeter (.367), Jesse Winker (.359), Joey Votto (.335) and Tucker Barnhart (.274). VanMeter has swung a hot bat of late with a .407 xwOBA over the past 14 days. Eugenio Suarez has also swung it well with a .375 xwOBA over the past 14 days and in play despite not having the platoon advantage vs. Teheran. Winker, VanMeter and Dietrich are all $4k or less on Draftkings this afternoon. Barnhart is just $2.8k and not a bad option at a shallow catcher position. The Reds currently have a 4.41 implied line vs. Teheran and the Braves.

After posting a solid 3.50 ERA in 2018, Chacin has heavily regressed with a 5.60 ERA, 5.62 xFIP and 5.50 SIERA with a 6.7% K-BB in 2019. Chacin has just a 7.3% SwStr, a 34.4% GB rate and 43.6% hard contact rate with a .352 xwOBA allowed. His last start came on 6/17 after a short stint on the DL with a back issue; he allowed 9 baserunners (6 hits, 3 walks) in just 4 2/3 innings in a matchup with the Padres in San Diego. Chacin has long been more vulnerable vs. lefties; he’s allowed a .358 xwOBA to lefties since 2017, compared to a .287 xwOBA vs. righties. Derek Dietrich (.399 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Jesse Winker (.355), Joey Votto (.329) and Tucker Barnhart (.273) are all left-handed bats that are intriguing plays vs. Chacin in Miller Park this afternoon. Eugenio Suarez (111 wRC+ vs. RHP since 2018) and Yasiel Puig (117 wRC+ vs. RHP since 2018) are also good plays given the matchup and environment. The Reds have a 4.16 implied line vs. Chacin, which feels low and might help them fly a bit under the radar this afternoon.

Many hitters in the Reds’ lineup has vastly underperformed their preseason projections. Tonight, they get a great matchup at home vs. Tyler Beede, who had a 7.05 ERA and 5.3 K-BB% in AAA last year. Though Beede has looked better in 2019 (1.99 ERA / 3.76 xFIP in 23 AAA innings) his overall numbers in the minors are underwhelming and he is certainly a pitcher to target tonight. Despite a nice matchup in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark, all Reds hitters are $4.1k or less on Draftkings with the exception of Jesse Winker. Winker is still a good play with a .383 xwOBA vs. RHP since ’18. Joey Votto leads off and has mashed RHP since 2018 with a .399 xwOBA. Highly regarded prospect Nick Senzel makes his MLB debut tonight, batting 2nd at just $3.8k. He had a 149 wRC+ in AAA last year but had struggled so far this year with just a 77 wRC+ before getting the call up. Yasiel Puig bats 4th and carries a .349 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018. Derek Dietrich (.316 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018) and Tucker Barnhart (.306) are also in play lower in the Reds’ order.

Despite two non-ace starters in last nights matchup, the Padres and Reds combined for just 5 runs in 11 innings. Their matchup tonight projects for a similar result as both teams have just 3.5 implied runs. It is rare to find a starter whose opponent is projected for 3.5 runs or less under $8k on Draftkings, but Eric Lauer is just $7k tonight. Lauer has been serviceable with a 7.36 K/9, 2.05 BB/9 and 4.32 xFIP. The Reds have been pretty mediocre vs. LHP with a 84 wRC+ and the 6th worst K rate at 26.6%. Tonight they’ll be without their best hitter in Joey Votto. Their lineup has run cold of late, just one hitter in tonight’s lineup (Tucker Barnhart) has an xwOBA greater than .320 over the last 10 days. Lauer also gets to work with a pitcher friendly umpire in Chris Guccione. Lauer doesn’t have crazy upside but is way too cheap for this matchup and has a very good chance to hit value tonight.

The Reds face Adam Wainwright tonight and have an implied total of 5.14 with plenty of value plays in their lineup. Wainwright has not been good since 2015, though he did have a decent start his last time out vs. the Padres on 4/7. Still, he has a track record of mediocrity since 2016 (4.76 ERA, 4.18 xFIP, .335 wOBA allowed since ’16) and we should continue to target him. Joey Votto (.418 xwOBA vs. RHP in 2018), Jesse Winker (.385), Yasiel Puig (.379), Eugenio Suarez (.358) and Scott Schebler (.338) make up the top 5 hitters in the Reds’ lineup and are all great, affordable options. Derek Dietrich (.310) and Tucker Barnhart (.305) are also in play but further down in the order. Barnhart has seen the ball well so far in 2019 with a .373 xwOBA, highest of all Reds’ bats in their lineup today. Puig (.262 xwOBA in 2019) has not had the same success to start the year, but as a result can be had at a discount.

Dylan Covey looked like a changed pitcher through his first six major league starts this year. His last three starts, however, looked even worse than last season (11.1 IP - 18 R - 6 HR - 12 BB - 3 K - 35 BF). As such, the Reds have the second highest run line on the board tonight (5.58). Batters from either side of the plate have a wOBA and xwOBA between .370 and .385 against him in his career. Basically, any of the first six in the order are very nice options tonight and potentially part of a great stack if Covey is going to continue walking and everyone and then surrendering long balls. Tucker Barnhart (85 wRC+, .125 ISO) is the only one of the six below a 107 wRC+ or .173 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year and he's a cheap catcher batting in the second spot. Scott Schebler (107 wRC+, .250 ISO) and Joey Votto (166 wRC+, .189 ISO) are top overall bats in this spot.

At 4.46 implied runs, the Reds are actually third best on the board this afternoon against Michael Fulmer, who has struggled at times this season, but is coming off back to back seven inning starts with one run allowed in each. Though batters from either side of the plate are below a .300 wOBA against him since last year, xwOBA brings LHBs up to .330 to go with their 35.6 Hard% and league average ground ball rate againt them. Six of the eight Reds in the lineup today will bat from that side. As usual, Joey Votto (178 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the top bat. Scott Schebler (99 wRC+, .2228 ISO) and Scooter Gennett (138 wRC+, .222 ISO) compliment in the first half of the lineup with Tucker Barnhart (94 wRC+, .133 ISO) the value play in the second slot.