Tyler Austin Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Lester has a 3.29 ERA over the past 30 days, but his surrounding numbers suggest that he’s getting incredibly lucky. He’s also posted a 5.52 SIERA, 5.14 xFIP and .389 xwOBA allowed with a 7.2% K-BB, 1.65 WHIP and a 86.1% LOB rate. Lester’s fastball velo has been down about a full MPH over his past few starts, and he’s shown an uncharacteristic lack of control as he’s walked 13 batters over his last 4 starts. Lester gets a start this afternoon in hitter friendly Miller Park vs. the Brewers. He’s has actually been worse vs. lefties this year (.333 xwOBA vs. RHB, .371 xwOBA vs. LHB) but can be targeted from either side of the plate. Christian Yelich (.400 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Yasmani Grandal (.392), Ryan Braun (.372), Tyler Austin (.369), Lorenzo Cain (.348), Orlando Arcia (.316), and Hernan Perez (.280) are all potential options. Yelich has been their hottest hitter with a .440 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks. Cain (projected to lead off, $3.7k on DK), Ryan Braun (projected to bat 4th, $4k), Tyler Austin (projected 5th, $3.4k) and Hernan Perez (projected 6th, $3.1k) all look like great values in this Brewers’ order.

Drew Smyly struck out eight of 23 Pirates in his first start for the Phillies. Pitching in Texas, he’d allowed 19 HRs in 51.1 innings. Weather effects tonight may make Philadelphia, an already power friendly park, feel like Texas tonight. When he’s on, Smyly can miss some bats near the top of the zone (83.7 Z-Contact%), but he’s also an extreme fly ball pitcher (29 GB%), who doesn’t get as many swings outside of the zone as you’d like (42.7 Z-O-Swing%). With more than 40% of his contact above a 95 mph EV, a double digit Barrel rate is essentially a given (10.7% per BBE) with his ground ball rate, resulting in a .381 xwOBA. While the Giants are tied for the worst split on the board vs LHP (76 wRC+), this could be a trouble spot for Smyly, as their increase their HR/FB rate to 14.3% on the road. At a healthy five implied runs, the Giants still sit merely in the middle of the board on Tuesday, however, what they do provide that most other highly projected offenses tonight can’t is a potential patch towards high priced pitching as well. Not a single batter among the first seven in tonight’s projected lineup costs more than $4K on DraftKings or $3K on FanDuel. Thus, despite only Donovan Solano (128 wRC+, .102 ISO, .403) and Tyler Austin (109 wRC+, .267 ISO) showing any proficiency vs LHP over the last calendar year, a group of below average bats behind them (Buster Posey 63 wRC+, .087…yikes!), may still carry some value against a pitcher whom RHBs have hammered for a .378 wOBA and xwOBA, while LHBs have done even better (.493 wOBA, .396 xwOBA).

Playing in hitter friendly Petco Park against a solid pitcher in Joey Lucchesi, the Giants have just a 3.68 implied total and are a dart-throw stack option on a slate full of more obvious options. Fortunately, they will be very low-owned and are probably in a better spot than what their total shows. Lucchesi has been a solid pitcher this year, but he has struggled a bit over the past 30 days with a 5.57 ERA, 4.97 SIERA and just a 9.9% K-BB. Lucchesi has always been more vulnerable vs. righties, as he has a .329 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB compared to a .247 xwOBA vs. LHB since 2018. Tonight the first 6 batters in the Giants’ lineup project to be righties. The Giants have really struggled this year at the plate but have begun to turn it around with a 6th best 110 wRC+ over the past 30 days. Donavan Solano (.396 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Tyler Austin (.361), Kevin Pillar (.326) are all good options. Buster Posey (.290) has struggled this year but is still a career 150 wRC+ hitter vs. LHP. Austin Slater is another good option, projected to bat 2nd with a career 100 wRC+ vs. LHP and a 142 wRC+ in 60 PA this year. Giants batters are also extremely cheap; all their hitters are $4k or less on Draftkings besides Mike Yastrzemski. If you’re looking to get super contrarian on this slate, the Giants could be a good shot in a GPP.

The Twins have a 4.76 implied run line at home against Francisco Liriano despite only three batters in the lineup above a .320 xwOBA against LHP this season. One of them is Joe Mauer (102 wRC+, .082 ISO vs LHP), another is Willians Astudillo, who has less than 30 PAs vs LHP, the other is Tyler Austin (126 wRC+, .310 ISO). Austin is also the only one of the first six batters in the order above a .151 ISO vs LHP this year too. How is this possible? Consider Francisco Liriano's .358 wOBA against RHBs, which makes the top two thirds of the Minnesota offense likely all playable tonight. Players are attacking the pitcher here despite the lack of potency in this lineup.

The run line for the Twins is climbing and up to 5.52 for their trip to Texas against Drew Hutchison, who has allowed has allowed 17 runs through four starts, striking out more than two just once. Combined with his bullpen work, batters from either side are above a .370 wOBA against him, though xwOBA favors RHBs, pushing them up above .400, as there's a 12 point difference in his hard hit rate, favoring same-handed batters. Eddie Rosario (128 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP this season) is still the top bat here, though he's down to a .333 xwOBA against RHP this year as well. Mitch Garver (127 wRC+, .178 ISO), Miguel Sano (90 wRC+, .212 ISO) and Tyler Austin (88 wRC+, .245 ISO) have all at least shown power from the right-hand side.

Carlos Rodon only has a league average strikeout rate with estimators two runs above his ERA due to a .210 BABIP, 79.4 LOB% and 8.3 HR/FB, none of which seem remotely sustainable. However, those numbers have allowed him to record eighth inning out sin five of his last six starts and he is generating an 86.9 mph aEV with just 4.5% Barrels/BBE. He might be a bit over-priced in this spot, but the Twins have an 85 or less wRC+ and sub-10 HR/FB on the road and vs LHP. Tyler Austin (163 wRC+, .348 ISO) is the only batter in the opposing lineup above a 100 wRC+ vs LHP over the last calendar year. The other side of this matchup features Kyle Gibson facing an Abreu-less White Sox lineup. His strikeout rate is down (18.5%) with an increased SIERA (4.45) over the last month as well, but he's been a quality arm this season with a 22.7 K% and 86.8 mph aEV. The White Sox have a 19+ K-BB% at home and vs RHP. Gibson has completed seven innings in nine of his last 15 starts. Only Omar Narvaez (132 wRC+, .157 ISO) is above a 110 wRC+ and only Daniel Palka (104 wRC+, .256 ISO) is above a .200 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year. Yolmer Sanchez (110 wRC+, .178 ISO) is cheap in the leadoff spot however, but at a slightly lower price, Gibson can give you the same workload as Rodon with an ERA more closely matching slightly better peripherals than his left-handed counterpart.

The Twins don't have a lot of competent bats against LHP over the last calendar year. In fact, Logan Forsythe bats second with just a 62 wRC+ and .092 ISO against them over that span. Yet, due to the lineup spot, his low price, and Francisco Liriano's .367 wOBA (.397 xwOBA) against RHBs since last season, he's a player with some value tonight. In fact, seven of nine batters are right-handed for the Twins (5.36 run line) tonight. Among the first five of those, only Tyler Austin (142 wRC+, .303 ISO) is above a 75 wRC+ or .140 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year. Many of these are small sample, including Miguel Sano's 35 wRC+ and .078 ISO (.199 xwOBA) in 59 PAs against southpaws over the last 365 days, but these are some ugly numbers and all are supported by poor Statcast numbers as well. Next to Austin (.420), Johnny Field (93 wRC+, .197 ISO) has the next highest xwOBA (.319) in the lineup against LHP over this span and he's batting eighth. The Twins may very well run it up on the Tigers tonight, but no batter besides Austin, who strikes out a ton by the way, appears to really stand out here.