Tyler Chatwood Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Tyler Chatwood was considered a surprise Cy Young candidate after striking out 19 of his first 47 batters, allowing just a single run in 12.2 innings. He followed that up by being blasted for eight runs (two HRs) by the Royals in just 2.1 innings. He did strike out four of 18 batters without a walk. The biggest difference seemed to be that he threw more cutters and curves in exchange of sinkers last time out. He only allowed one more Barrel than each of his first two starts, but his exit velocity exceeded 90 mph for the first time. While his ground ball rate hasn’t been below 50% in four years, it hasn’t been above 46% in any start this year yet. The good news is that he’s still walked just four batters this year and owns a 29.2 K-BB% nearly six times his career rate of 5.0%. Two of the biggest reasons to give him another shot tonight include weather and opponent. The wind is once again projected to be blowing in at Wrigley tonight and the Brewers don’t have a single batter on the roster above a 95 wRC+ with more than 23 Plate Appearances. In fact, they have a team 20.7 K-BB% and 74 wRC+ vs RHP this year. At $8.2K Chatwood could be one of the top values on the board and potentially with lowered ownership after his most recent debacle.

Tyler Chatwood is suddenly a leading NL Cy Young contender after two starts. He’s struck out 19 of the 47 batters he’s faced. While the Pirates and Brewers are two of the worst offenses in the league, a 17.2 SwStr% is impressive against any major league competition. Perhaps as importantly, he’s walked just four (11.4 BB% last year). He’s allowed just a single run in 12.2 innings with a .272 xwOBA. Tonight, he’ll no longer be facing a bottom of the National League offense. He’ll be facing one from the American League. The Royals have an 82 wRC+ and 19.3 K-BB% this season, not far off from their numbers last year. Chatwood, who has kept RHBs on the ground 55.2% of the time on batted balls since last year and has allowed LHBs a 70 point higher wOBA (though just three points by xwOBA) only has to navigate one or two dangerous RH bats at the top of this lineup. Chatwood is the top pitcher on a five game night slate on FanDuel. His $9.6K price point is more than $1.4K above the next most expensive pitcher, who happens to be facing the Astros, but still below $10K.

The wind is not blowing out Wrigley tonight. In fact, it’s blowing in slightly, but conditions still may be favorable for a high scoring affair. Conditions being Walker Lockett and Tyler Chatwood on the mound. Lockett had a 4.6 K-BB% in 15 innings for the Padres last year and an 8.9 K% in 24.2 AAA innings for the Mets this year. In fact, in parts of four AAA seasons now, his strikeout rate has never exceeded 20.6% in any of them. Though he can generate some ground balls, he’ll have to face an offense with a 106 wRC+ and 18.5 HR/FB against RHP this year. The top four in the projected lineup for the Cubs each are above are all above a 100 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year with only Kris Bryant (.179) below a .200 ISO. Anthony Rizzo (154 wRC+, .251 ISO) leads that quartet in both metrics. The Cubs are implied for five runs tonight, but still behind seven other teams on a 10 game slate.

The more interesting team may be the Mets, implied for just four runs though. Tyler Chatwood has never exceeded a 20% strikeout rate in his career and hasn’t had a walk rate below 12% since 2016. He has just a 7.7 SwStr% in 35 innings this year, though he has managed contact well with a 53.5 GB% and 85.4 mph aEV, resulting in just 2% Barrels/BBE. A Mets lineup will likely be contrarian here and more efficient in stacks against a pitcher with severe control problems. The wind is not going to help him throw strikes and while the Mets have issues, offense really hasn’t been one of them lately. Batters from either side of the plate reach a .350 xwOBA against Chatwood over the last calendar year. Among the first four in the Mets projected order tonight, Robinson Cano is the low man with a 119 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year, while Jeff McNeil (140 wRC+, .139 ISO) is the only one of the four below a .200 ISO against them. All four are above a 125 wRC+ and 45 Hard% over the last week as well.

Tyler Chatwood really has no business starting for any MLB team. He had a horrific 8.25 walks per 9 last year over 103.2 innings leading to a -2.1 K-BB% and a 6.28 SIERA. Though Chatwood has good velocity and limits flyballs and loud contact fairly well, you just can’t walk that many guys without giving up tons of runs. Chatwood is especially bad vs. LHB with a .360 xwOBA allowed since 2017 versus a .331 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB. Jarrod Dyson will lead off for the D-Backs today and will have huge stolen base upside given Chatwood’s propensity to allow baserunners. David Peralta (.342 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2017), Adam Jones (.318), Eduardo Escobar (.327) and Ketel Marte (.312) are all options at the top of the D-backs’ order. Eduardo Escobar has been the hottest hitter of the bunch with a .404 xwOBA over the past 10 days. The D-backs have a 4.67 implied total today vs. Chatwood and the Cubs.

Tyler Chatwood hovers around a league average strikeout rate (19.9%) and has the second highest ground ball rate on the board (56.5%). However, his walk rate also hovers around a league average strikeout rate (19.9%), giving the Dodgers a 4.47 implied run line. The way to attack a pitcher like this is with stacks in order to take advantage of runs that result from walks. If that's the plan for players tonight, those stacks must include Joc Pederson (135 wRC+, .267 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Max Muncy (165 wRC+, .339 ISO). Both are expensive (above $4K) on DraftKings, but the former has a 196 wRC+ (55.6 Hard%) over the last seven days and still costs less than $3K on FanDuel. LHBs have a .364 wOBA (.358 xwOBA) against Chatwood since last season, despite the 56 GB% against them.

Not counting what the Rays are doing, which actually tunes players into their plan for the majority of the game, nearly half the board is averaging less than 5.1 innings per start this season, but only Tyler Chatwood less than five innings per start. The reason for that is walks, but he's backed by one of the top bullpens in baseball over the last 30 days (2.91 FIP, 16.1 K-BB%). Kenta Maeda is the next low man on the board and after throwing 111 pitches, his next two starts have been very short with a DL trip in between. The Dodgers (3.16 FIP, 14.5 K-BB% last 30 days) have a similarly strong bullpen. The weakest bullpens to be found backing these shorter starters will be Kansas City (league worst 5.38 FIP last 30 days - 11.8 K-BB%) behind Ian Kennedy and the Marlins (league worst 5.6 K-BB% last 30 days - 4.55 FIP) behind Caleb Smith. The latter, however, is in a good spot in San Francisco and has been going deeper in games most recently though.

Tyler Chatwood has a 19.6 K% that's nearly league average this year, yet he's walked more batters than he's struck out. In fact, that walk rate spikes to 26.2% over his last four starts. While the Brewers have a fairly high 4.85 implied run line, they also have some high price tags among their most useful bats and the best way to utilize them might be as a left-handed stack, considering Chatwood has a .311 wOBA and 58.3 GB% against RHBs since last season. He has a 56 GB% against LHBs too, but the wOBA jumps to .361. Walks are generally not what daily fantasy players are looking for, but stacking will expose players to runs and runs driven in as well. Eric Thames (135 wRC+, .302 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) returns in the leadoff spot. Christian Yelich (137 wRC+, .194 ISO) and Travis Shaw (132 wRC+, .275 ISO) make it three lefties among the first four batters tonight.