Vinnie Pasquantino Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

You could pay down for pitching tonight, bracing some volatility, but probably still need some value bats if you’re planning on stacking Dodgers or Blue Jays. FanDuel, perhaps more than DraftKings today, fails to price up visiting Coors bats enough. The top projected bats are also the top projected values. In fact, four of the top five projected values and six of the top 10 projected FD values are Dodgers tonight. Freddie Freeman (170 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP this year) is the 10th best FanDuel projected value even at $4.3K tonight, but he’s the only one of the six costing more than $2.9K. Jake Lamb (127 wRC+, .234 ISO) is the top projected value on either site, costing no more than $2.2K. Max Muncy (89 wRC+, .133 ISO) is the second best projected FanDuel value and only other Dodger top 10 projected DraftKings value tonight. Jose Urena has struck out just 14 of 100 batters over four starts with 10 walks, but has kept 55.3% of his contact on the ground and stranded 79.5% of runners to keep his ERA an even 3.00 with estimators more than a run higher. He somehow held the Dodgers to a single run over 6.2 innings, despite more walks than strikeouts in his first start. There was a lot of hard contact right at gloves in that game. He’s unlikely to repeat that feat this time around at Coors. The Dodgers offer a fairly balanced lineup, while Urena has a wide split this year (LHBs .389 wOBA, .369 xwOBA – RHBs .215 wOBA, but .329 xwOBA).

FanDuel makes it too easy to stack the dominant offense tonight, so why do anything else? For one, because you can’t stack the entire Dodger lineup. A pair of San Francisco Giants also project as top FanDuel and DraftKings values because they’re facing another LHP tonight. Justin Steele will occasionally spike a high strikeout total (8+ four times), but is generally just a guy who keeps the ball on the ground (51.6%), suppressing barrels (3.5%) and hard contact (34.4% 95+ mph EV) with an average strikeout rate (21.1%), but too many walks (10.7%). He’s only completed six innings five times (all Quality Starts), while all non-FIP estimators (8.6 HR/FB) are within one-third of a run of his 4.02 ERA. Steele throws a lot of four-seamers (56.5%). It’s not a great pitch (0.5 RV/100, .400 wOBA) and the Giants smash fastballs (0.61 wFB/C). RHBs have been about average against Steele (.302 wOBA, .317 xwOBA). As is always the case, right-handed platoon bats are too cheap, due to lack of playing time and the Giants employ more than any other team. Yermin Mercedes (132 wRC+, .219 ISO vs LHP this season) and Austin Slater (151 wRC+, .168 ISO) may carry some pinch hit risk, but are cheap enough to be worth the concern. One of just two LHBs in the projected lineup, Luis Gonzalez (54 wRC+) projects as a potential top DraftKings value at minimum cost as well.

Lastly, Jameson Taillon didn’t get out the third inning in his first post-start break and has been pummeled for 23 earned runs over his last 29.2 innings. Eight of his 11 barrels (11.0%) have left the yard over this span and five of them on the road. LHBs have a .335 wOBA and .343 xwOBA against him, while RHBs have been near average (.306 wOBA, .292 xwOBA). Vinnie Pasquantino (91 wRC+, .139 ISO vs RHP) and Michael A. Taylor (120 wRC+, .101 ISO) cost less than $2.5K on DraftKings.