Willie Calhoun Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

We’re not going to find many useful, cheap arms tonight, which amplifies the need for cheaper bats. This generally means we have to rely on some smaller samples or below average bats in high upside spots and that’s pretty much what we’re dealing with in Texas tonight. Janson Junk has struck out five of 51 batters with as many home runs allowed and a high of 61 pitches in his three starts. LHBs exceed a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him in a small sample and Texas only has three of those in the projected lineup with a wRC+ above 95 against RHP this year. However, those three range from fairly to extremely cheap in a lineup with a 4.63 team total that’s currently sixth best on the board. Nathaniel Lowe (115 wRC+, .165 ISO vs RHP) costs $4.4K on DraftKings, but that is the only price tag among the three above $3K on either site. DJ Peters (101 wRC+, .267 ISO) has flashed some power, while Willie Calhoun (101 wRC+, .124 ISO) costs the minimum on both sites and is projected to bat leadoff. It may not be pretty, but a left-handed Texas stack is going to allow you to do a lot of things with the rest of your lineup.

Normally a guy to avoid when choosing hitters, there are a few reasons it might be wise to get some exposure to Rangers’ bats tonight. Already very hitter-friendly Globe Life Park projects to see a further increase in overall offense per WeatherEdge. Jose Berrios has some wide splits that we can target, one of which being his home-road split. Since 2017, Berrios has a 2.93 ERA, 20% K-BB and .277 xwOBA allowed in home games, compared to a 4.44 ERA, 13.6% K-BB and .316 xwOBA in road games. He is also much worse versus lefties; he has a 18.8% K-BB and .280 xwOBA allowed vs. righties compared to a 14.5% K-BB and .315 xwOBA vs. lefties. The Rangers have 5 lefties in their projected lineup for tonight’s matchup at home: Shin-Soo Choo (.378 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Nomar Mazara (.354), Danny Santana (.344), Willie Calhoun (.320) and Rougned Odor (.307). Logan Forsythe (.363) and Elvis Andrus (.303) are also potential options, but will not have the platoon advantage versus Berrios. Given the hitting environment, Rangers’ hitters are pretty cheap as Choo, Andrus, Mazara, Odor and Forsythe are all $4.1k or less on Draftkings, while Calhoun is $4.4k and Santana is $4.7k. Also working in Rangers’ hitters favor is a hitter-friendly umpire in Paul Hoberg. They currently have a 5.20 implied line vs. Berrios and the Twins.

Blake Snell started off the season incredibly well, but has really fallen apart over the past 30 days with an 11.94 ERA, 4.75 xFIP, 5.00 SIERA, and 10.8% K-BB. Over that time frame Snell has seen his dominant curveball collect a pitch value of -3.9; the pitch was worth a pitch value of 13.2 last year. His changeup has also gone downhill recently with a -3.9 value after it earned a 7.2 mark in 2018. Looking at his Statcast data, his curveball had a spin rate of 2517 RPM in 2018 and has averaged 2487 RPM so far in 2019, though over the past month that number has fallen to 2359. Snell’s offspeed pitches (curve, change, slider) over the past month have been ineffective as he’s allowed a .332 xwOBA when using them. He’s also given up a .358 xwOBA with his fastball over that time. Especially with Snell expected to see high ownership today, Rangers bats make for an interesting leverage stack with Snell clearly trying to regain his feel in the mound. Joey Gallo (.398 xwOBA vs. LHP), Asdrubal Cabrera (.331), Willie Calhoun (.329), Ronald Guzman (.324), Elvis Andrus (.312) and Danny Santana (.306) are all options if you’re looking to get contrarian. Delino Deshields (.276) has struggled vs. LHP this year but has a decent .310 career wOBA vs. LHP and will lead off at just $3.9k on Draftkings. Gallo has been their hottest bat with a .411 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, followed by Danny Santana at .394.

The Rangers will face Ivan Nova this afternoon in the heat at Globe Life Park and have a juicy 6.16 implied total. Nova continues to hang onto a rotation spot despite been terrible this year with a 6.01 ERA / 4.73 xFIP / 5.04 SIERA with an 8 % K-BB and 8.2% SwStr. His Statcast numbers are just as bad as he has a .355 xwOBA allowed, 88.4 MPH aEV and 7.4 % barrel rate. Nova is slightly more vulnerable vs. lefties; he has a .356 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB since 2018 compared to a .329 mark vs. RHB. The Rangers have just 2 right-handed bats in their projected lineup. Willie Calhoun (.460 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Shin-Soo Choo (.399), Nomar Mazara (.371), Ronald Guzman (.367) and Danny Santana (.354) are all great lefty options that mash RHP. Also in play are Elvis Andrus (.303), Rougned Odor (.284) and Asdrubal Cabrera (.276). Mazara cranked 2 homers yesterday and has been their hottest hitter over the past 14 days with a .392 xwOBA. Mazara and Calhoun are both great values on Draftings at just $4.4k each. Cabrera, Odor and Guzman are all $4k or less. Rangers bats will likely see decent ownership but they are in a great spot here and arguably underpriced given the matchup.

There should be a ton of runs to go around tonight in Arlington as two bad pitchers will faceoff in the heat at Globe Life Park. The game currently has an O/U of 11.5 and WeatherEdge is expecting an increase in runs scored (WeatherEdge available for premium subscribers). Reynaldo Lopez has been terrible this year with a 6.31 ERA / 5.71 xFIP / 5.10 SIERA with a 11% K-BB, 49.4% FB rate, 39% hard contact rate and 1.59 WHIP. He also has a .372 xwOBA, 10.4% barrel rate and 90.5 MPH aEV on the year. The Rangers lineup is missing some pop without Joey Gallo and Hunter Pence in the order but still has plenty of good options in this matchup. Shin-Soo Choo (140 wRC+, .225 ISO vs. RHP since 2018), Danny Santana (129 wRC+, .227 ISO), Asdrubal Cabrera (117 wRC+, .228 ISO), Willie Calhoun (111 wRC+, .196 ISO), Ronald Guzman (105 wRC+, .215 ISO), Nomar Mazara (.101 wRC+, .165 ISO), and Elvis Andrus (86 wRC+, .128 ISO) are all good options in tonight’s lineup. Santana has been their hottest hitter with a .360 xwOBA over the last 2 weeks, followed by Guzman at .356. All Rangers’ bats are available for $5k or less on Draftkings and will likely be a popular stack tonight. They have a 6.19 implied line vs. Lopez and the White Sox.