Wily Peralta Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Kevin has once again identified several parks with moderate to strong winds blowing out, perhaps enhancing long ball possibilities tonight, though only two offenses have an implied run line above 4.6 (Boston and New York AL both 5.3). Avoiding those offenses, players can still find several strong bats, especially at First Base where Joey Votto (166 wRC+, .246 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Matt Carpenter (147 wRC+, .251 ISO vs RHP since 2015) both face favorable conditions. The entire Cincinnait offense appears viable against Tyler Glasnow, who appears to be a walk machine, consistently attempting to pitch out of trouble and not often succeeding. Players may not wish to attack him due to prospect name recognition, but both LH and RH batters have a wOBA around .370 against him. Consider Scott Schebler (118 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP career) and Adam Duvall (106 wRC+, .268 ISO vs RHP since 2015). Cardinal teammates of Carpenter, Dexter Fowler (110 wRC+, .169 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Jedd Gyorko (137 wRC+, .317 ISO vs RHP since last season) are also strong candidates against Wily Peralta (RHBs .352 wOBA, LHBs .380 wOBA since 2015). The Cardinals are somehow conservatively projected for just 4.4 runs tonight.

Three batters have homered three times against the pitcher they are facing tonight. One (Joe Mauer vs Justin Verlander) may have too much old data attached to it. Statcast record just seven BBE in the matchup with an aEV of just 84.6 mph. Matt Carpenter has punished Wily Peralta (98.1 mph aEV, 13 BBE) with eight extra-base hits total in 46 PA. Jose Abreu is the surprise here, but he has hit Corey Kluber really well, including a 94.1 mph aEV on 12 BBE, despite striking out nine times as well in 35 PA with just a single walk. Kluber has struggled some to start the season and Abreu has hit RHP fairly well over the last few years (128 wRC+, .193 ISO since 2015) and should see almost no ownership on this 1B rich slate. Among those with at least 10 BBE recorded by Statcast, Carpenter's aEV is exceeded only by Miguel Cabrera (98.9 mph aEV, 14 BBE) vs Hector Santiago, including two HRs. Yet another viable 1B option tonight.

There are several offenses that appear to have strongly favorable matchups tonight, though few of those match up a large sample size with a favorable run scoring environment. For instance, Alex Cobb's .493 wOBA against LHBs is worst on the board since he returned last year, but that encompasses only 80 batters faced and Tampa Bay is slightly pitcher friendly. Alex Meyer has allowed a .437 wOBA to just 52 RHBs and pitches in a more negative run environment. Tyler Glasnow, another pitcher friendly park, .374 wOBA to 67 LHBs, though his issues are mostly walk related. It's not until we get down to Wily Peralta (LHBs .370 wOBA since 2015) that we get into some depth in a nice hitting environment. Matt Carpenter (148 wRC+, .251 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is going to put players to a decision at 1B for just $2.9K on FanDuel, especially since the next best matchup is LHBs against Adam Wainwright (.367 wOBA). With deGrom off the board, perhaps players will pay up for the bat on FanDuel, but Thames is likely to be the more popular choice for $900 left on DraftKings. Although both teams are implied for a bit below four and a half runs, Milwaukee might offer alternative stacking options to Coors, which does not even boast either of the top two projected run totals tonight.

Wily Peralta is off to a surprisingly solid start this season, to his standards at least, going at least five innings in each start and allowing three earned runs or less in both starts. He's set to take on an underrated Reds lineup this afternoon that has some capable hitters from both sides of the plate. Despite his solid start to 2017, this is still a pitcher that posted a minuscule 16.8% strikeout rate last season. Peralta was even worse against lefties in 2016, inducing a 14.0% strikeout rate to the tune of a .374 wOBA while allowing a 32.4% hard hit rate and 25.0% line drive rate. This puts any Reds left-handed hitter firmly into play, particularly Joey Votto (161 wRC+, .418 wOBA, .253 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), who has mashed right-handed pitching for most of his career. The remaining Red lefties like Billy Hamilton, Arismendy Alcantara, Scott Schebler, and even Tucker Barnhart remain viable options as a part of a stack in tournaments given their lack of individual upside, though Schebler as been known to get a hold of a pitch here and there and leave the yard and Hamilton can provide some upside through stolen bases,

As if players needed an added excuse to stack against Jered Weaver, RHBs have a .352 wOBA (35.3 Hard%) against him since 2015. That's the second worst platoon split on the board tonight (100 PA min.) and his .347 wOBA (29.8 Hard%) against LHBs isn't far behind. There are ample reasons to stack against Weaver with a Colorado lineup implied to score nearly seven runs tonight! The pitcher with the worst splits though is Wily Peralta, against whom LHBs have a .372 wOBA (34.3 Hard%) and RHBs have a .351 wOBA (31.1 Hard%) since 2015, but there may be less optimism in attacking him. Toronto has few batters who can take advantage of issues against lefties (Kendrys Morales 115 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP since 2015), but Peralta has also shown some improvement himself, holding all batters to a .295 wOBA over his last 10 starts last season, though his improvement was more against RHBs (.240 wOBA vs .344). Morales still appears to be an interesting play, but with the slider potentially a weapon now, it makes the outlook for RHBs (and potentially a predominantly RH Toronto lineup) a bit more bleak.

Tonight's slate is front loaded by top names like Sale, deGrom and Hill. While all three project potentially as strong as their price tag or better, perhaps you need an SP2 or would rather opt to spend on offense. The good news is that there are several cheaper pitchers with upside beyond their price tag as well. James Paxton had a small breakout in his strikeout rate (22.9%) last year and only Syndergaard through harder among starters, but he did have occasional contact issues and pitches against a powerful RH lineup in Houston. He costs $7.7K or less on either site. Jharel Cotton struck out 29.5% at AAA last year and 20.5% in a short major league stint. He has a wicked changeup and costs just $6.7K on FanDuel. The catch is that the Angels struck out just 16% of the time last season.Charlie Morton threw only 17.1 innings for the Phillies last year, but with increased velocity and striking out 26.8% of the batters he faced. This spring, he looked to have maintained that velocity and possibly even increased it. The Mariners have some pop in the middle of the order, but he costs just over $6K on either site. One last name to consider might be Wily Peralta. After missing the entire month of July, he returned to post an 11.0 SwStr% (20.3 K%) with a 2.92 ERA (estimators a bit higher, but below four) in 10 starts with increased velocity. He costs just $5.1K on DraftKings.

Nearly every time Wily Peralta (4.68 SIERA) takes the mound, he will be a pitcher that we want to attack in daily fantasy which naturally makes the Reds a great stacking option tonight. Peralta has actually been better recently, but this is still a great spot for Joey Votto (162 wRC+, .417 wOBA, .243 ISO vs RHP) and Scott Schebler (.169 ISO vs RHP), as they should be able to crank out some hard-hit line drives in this matchup. Adam Duvall (.272 ISO vs RHP)has the fly ball tendencies to counteract the ground ball abilities of Peralta to right-handed batters (53.6% GB%), and will hopefully be able to mash at least one out of Great American Ballpark. The Reds may fly under the radar and have a decent team total, so feel free to fire up Cincinnati stacks in tournaments.

Wily Peralta has just a 3.52 ERA over the last month with a much increased strikeout rate (18.1%), but still just an 8.5 K-BB% and estimators a run above his ERA due to an 81.4 LOB%. The Cardinals are still an offense that punishes RHP (111 wRC+), though they are down another key bat tonight in Brandon Moss. Both RHBs and LHBs have a wOBA above .370 against him since last season and both have a 34% hard hit rate against him this season. This is a lineup with several interesting bats, even lower in the order. Matt Carpenter (156 wRC+, .267 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a top overall bat tonight with great success against Peralta, including three HRs and eight extra-base hits with just three Ks in 43 career PAs. Since the start of last season, he has a 97.4 mph aEV on 12 batted balls against him. Dropping down in the lineup a bit, we find the second and third best hitters vs RHP since last season in tonight's lineup with Grichuk (126 wRC+, .277 ISO), who has a 207 wRC+ over the last week, and Pham (124 wRC+, .243 ISO) for just $2.6K on FanDuel. Kolten Wong (102 wRC+ vs RHP since last night) is coming off a big night last night and still costs the minimum on FD. There are some interesting stacks in this lineup even with Moss out.

Wily Peralta has been slightly more palatable since being recalled, but still has just a 16.9 K% with a 4.65 SIERA. Batters from either side have a wOBA above .375 against him since last season, though LHBs have a hard hit rate (35.8%) just over five points higher. Unfortunately, the Pirates have just two LHBs in the lineup, but both are great plays tonight. Gregory Polanco (125 wRC+, .222 ISO) carries a high price tag, especially on DraftKings ($5.4K), but leads the team in both wRC+ and ISO (by over 60 points) vs RHP. He's potentially one of tonight's top overall bats (65 Hard% last seven days) in a great run environment. Josh Bell still has a minuscule major league resume, but has a 129 wRC+ over the last week and costs less than $3K on either site. The other interesting bat here may be Andrew McCutchen (102 wRC+, .157 ISO vs RHP this season), who has a 60% hard hit rate over the last week, is second in ISO vs RHP this year and costs $700 less than Polanco or Marte on DraftKings.