Yadier Molina Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The St Louis Cardinals had a joyous time against the Arizona bullpen last night, turning a tie game late into a six run victory and why shouldn’t they? The Diamondbacks relief corps is giving them no relief with a 5.91 ERA, 4.66 SIERA and 5.19 xFIP over the last 30 days, all worst in the majors. While St Louis is generally a power suppressing park during the cooler months of the season, that changes when the temperature heats up, as the ball starts to carry more and Weather Edge suggests that could be the case tonight, in which case, an extreme fly ball pitcher like Caleb Smith could be in trouble. Just as importantly, the Cardinals have the ability to generate an entirely RH lineup that is much better against LHP. The players who get the biggest boosts against southpaws are Yadier Molina (158 wRC+, .328 ISO since last year) and Tommy Edman (151 wRC+, .228 ISO), though Paul Goldschmidt (126 wRC+, .128 ISO), Nolan Arenado (100 wRC+, .196 ISO), Tyler O’Neill (70 wRC+, .136 ISO) and Dylan Carlson (123 wRC+, .108 ISO) have to have more power than they’ve shown so far against lefties. Carlson may be a top value on FanDuel for just $2.6K, considering that Statcast boosts Smith’s .290 wOBA against RHBs since 2020 to a .335 xwOBA. Smith has only generated 28.5% of his contact on the ground against RHBs since last year and with just an 8.0 SwStr% in five June starts, there might be quite a bit of elevated contact in St Louis. At 4.95 implied runs, the Cardinals are just inside the top third of the board.

Ironically, with similarly expected conditions to Yankee Stadium tonight (temperatures in the mid-60s and negligible wind effects), Weather Edge is showing a run and power decline in such games, which makes quite a bit more sense. Overall, this park has been a positive run environment, though not as much of a power haven as Yankee Stadium.

Dakota Hudson is the low man on the pitching pole today. His 18 K% is more than 10 points below any other pitcher today with a 5.08 SIERA that’s the only mark above four and a .335 xwOBA that’s more than 30 points higher than anyone else. What he does do is keep the ball on the ground for the most part (56.9%) with that mark jumping to 63.9% against RHBs, who had a .285 wOBA and .302 xwOBA against him this year. It makes one wonder if either Asdrubal Cabrera (99 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP) or Matt Adams (89 wRC+, .138 ISO) could see the field over Howie Kendrick (136 wRC+, .221 ISO) or Ryan Zimmerman (65 wRC+, .148 ISO) tonight, as LHBs had a .347 wOBA (.369 xwOBA) with a 49.6 GB% against Hudson, but why fix what’s not broken? Juan Soto (155 wRC+, .303 ISO) may be the top overall bat on the slate. Adam Eaton (108 wRC+, .152 ISO) may be your top value. The Nationals top the board with 4.23 implied runs.

On the brink of elimination, a lineup shuffle for the Cardinals in game three had no effect, and there’s probably not much more they could do in game four either. With a 3-0 series lead, Patrick Corbin likely has the longest leash tonight and costs less than $10K on either site. His 28.5 K%, 3.88 SIERA, 3.09 DRA and .303 xwOBA hardly stand out on a four man board that includes Gerrit Cole or even his own rotation, though he was likely one of the top 10 pitchers in the National League. Corbin did have that awful relief outing against the Dodgers, but still struck out 14 of the 41 he faced in the series. Corbin does have the highest aEV (88.9 mph) and Barrels/BBE (9.4%) on the board, so it’s the strikeout rate that really gives him value and it does make some middle of the order St Louis bats interesting here. Paul Goldschmidt (148 wRC+), Marcell Ozuna (92 wRC+), Jose Martinez (160 wRC+) and Tommy Edman (151 wRC+) all exceeded a .260 ISO vs LHP this year, while Yadier Molina (130 wRC+, .147 ISO) had a .382 xwOBA with the platoon advantage, but has the disadvantage of having the speed of a 37 year-old catcher.

Wednesday’s MLB slate features two elimination games in the National League. This means that no starting pitcher is safe from the quick hook, although the Cardinals certainly have their best pitcher on the mound. Jack Flaherty struck out eight of the 29 Braves he faced, walking just one with a single HR and three earned runs despite keeping 60% of his contact on the ground. He ties for the slate lead with a 29.9 K% this year and his 2.75 ERA tops the board by more than a full half run, though his estimators are more in line with the two pitchers in Los Angeles tonight. Flaherty’s 80.6 Z-Contact% is best on the board by nearly four full points and his 86.1 mph aEV is best on the board by more than a mile per hour. At Flaherty’s $7.4K price tag on DraftKings, he may be the best value there. The Braves had a 23.2 K% vs RHP this year, although today’s specific lineup features just four batters below a 17 K%.

Offensively, it’s a very tight board with only the Nationals outside a 3.75 to 4.0 implied run range. Atlanta is the much more hitter friendly run environment here too. The surprise in this lineup is Adam Duvall (91 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP this year), who’s had some big hits in this series, replacing Matt Joyce. While Flaherty had just 18 points separating his wOBA between RH and LH batters this season (both below .270), his xwOBA pushed that past 60 points (LHBs .306), making this a questionable decision. A healthy Freddie Freeman (154 wRC+, .280 ISO) would be the top bat in this spot, but there’s some question about how healthy he really is. Ozzie Albies (98 wRC+, .177 ISO) and Nick Markakis (112 wRC+, .147 ISO) are more league average bats against RHP, while Brian McCann (97 wRC+, .178 ISO) is certainly viable behind the plate here.

Mike Foltynewicz has the worst season numbers on the board. His 21.4 K% is the only mark below 29% and his estimators (all above four) are the only ones above four. In fact, he owns the only DRA above three and his .325 xwOBA is worst on the board by exactly 50 points. That said, he struck out seven of 24 Cardinals, allowing just three hits without a run in his first start of the series and finished up on quite the run. After being recalled to the majors in August, he has a 2.65 ERA and 3.77 FIP with a 16.5 K-BB% in 10 starts. With the top park neutral matchup on the board (Cardinals 93 wRC+, 23.2 K% vs RHP), Folty is at least viable in a secondary DraftKings spot at the lowest price on the board ($6K). Dexter Fowler (107 wRC+, .179 ISO vs RHP) is the lowest priced Cardinal on DraftKings ($3.7K) and potentially the top value bat in this game (also below $3K on FanDuel). Marcell Ozuna (113 wRC+, .224 ISO) has been heating up in this series. Paul DeJong (104 wRC+, .228 ISO) is the only other batter in the lineup above a .200 ISO vs RHP this year. Yadiers Molina (77 wRC+) is the only batter in the lineup outside a 97-113 wRC+ range vs RHP this year.

Alex Wood is still shaking off the rust a bit, as he will make his 5th start of 2019 this afternoon vs. the Cardinals. So far in 19 and 1/3 innings, Wood has a 5.59 ERA / 4.40 xFIP with a 2.79 HR/9, 14.5% K-BB, 46.2% hard contact rate and 10.1% SwStr. Per Statcast, he’s allowed a .365 xwOBA, 7.7% barrel rate and 87.7 MPH aEV. Wood has been a bit worse vs. RHB: since 2017, he’s allowed a .303 xwOBA vs. righties compared to a .270 xwOBA vs. lefties. Paul Goldschmidt (.469 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Matt Carpenter (.386), Marcell Ozuna (.365), Yadier Molina (.334), Paul Dejong (.318) and Tommy Edman (.300) are all good options in the STL order. Ozuna has been their best hitter over the past 2 weeks with a .396 xwOBA. Matt Carpenter will be batting 2nd and costs just $3.6k on DK. Goldschmidt (batting 3rd, $4.2k), Dejong (batting 5th, $4k), Molina (batting 6th, $3.1k) and Edman (batting 1st, $4.2k) are also nice values. The Cardinals figure to be a slightly contrarian stack on this slate, even though they do have a solid 5.10 implied line.

The Cards get a juicy matchup with the Rangers on a warm day in Arlington where the ball should really be carrying Sunday afternoon. They’ll face Drew Smyly, who has had a miserable start to the year but somehow still has a rotation spot. Smyly has a 6.85 ERA / 5.42 xFIP / 5.03 with an ugly 14.2% BB rate, 56.5% hard contact rate and just a 26.1% GB rate. Smyly also has a .380 xwOBA allowed with a 90.5 aEV and 10.1% barrel rate. Once Smyly is chased from the game, Cardinals’ hitters will face a Texas bullpen that has a 3rd worst 5.02 xFIP on the year. Cardinals projected top 6 batters in order: Matt Carpenter (.370 xwOBA vs. LHP since 2018), Paul Goldschmidt (.411), Paul Dejong (.318), Marcell Ozuna (.396), Jose Martinez (.416), Yadi Molina (.365). Jose Martinez (.457 xwOBA over the past 14 days) Dexter Fowler (.424) and Paul Dejong (.406) have been the Cardinals’ hottest hitters. All projected Cardinals starters with the exception of Kolten Wong, have an xwOBA > .310 over the past 14 days. St. Louis has a 6.02 implied line vs. Smyly and the Rangers in Arlington this afternoon.

Jason Vargas has been horrid this year with a .440 xwOBA allowed, a 14.21 ERA, 8.17 xFIP and 63.3% hard contact rate allowed. Vargas recorded just one out in his last start, is averaging just 84.7 MPH on his fastball and flat out doesn’t look deserves to be in an MLB starting rotation. The Cardinals have a 4.93 implied total tonight which seems somewhat low given the matchup. Paul Goldschmidt (.411 xwOBA vs. LHP in 2018), Marcell Ozuna (.395), Jose Martinez (.388), Matt Carpenter (.369), Yadier Molina (.365) have all mashed LHP and are great options tonight vs. Vargas. Paul Dejong (.290) has not seen great success vs. LHP but nonetheless is a fine option batting 3rd in a stacked Cardinals order. Jose Martinez and Yadi Molina stand out as the best value plays as the only batters in the STL lineup under $4k on Draftkings. Marcell Ozuna is the hottest hitter in the lineup with a .570 xwOBA over the past 7 days.

Sure, Petco isn’t a great park for hitters, but the Cardinals have some decent options that feel underpriced given the matchup. They’ll face Matt Strahm, who is talented but unproven so far as a starter in the Majors. Strahm’s debut was one to forget, giving up 11 baserunners and 5 runs over just 2.2 innings. Today he faces a tough Cardinals lineup that features Paul Goldschmidt (.411 xwOBA vs. LHP in 2018), Marcell Ozuna (.395), Matt Carpenter (.368), and Yadier Molina (.365). Ozuna ($3.9k), Carpenter ($4.1k) and Molina ($3.5k) are all bargains on Draftkings hitting at the top or middle of the order. Goldschmidt seems well worth the price at $4.7k giving his insane numbers vs. LHP. Paul Dejong is batting 3rd at just $3.8k, but struggled vs. LHP with a .290 xwOBA. The Cardinals have a 4.66 implied total vs. Strahm and the Padres.

Anotonio Senzatela has allowed RHBs a .313 wOBA that’s 15 points higher than LHBs this season, but with a 41.4 Hard%, his xwOBA is actually .351 against RHBs. This reverse platoon split works against him in this situation because the St Louis lineup is populated with RHBs who can handle same-handed pitching. Matt Carpenter (155 wRC+, .309 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a top play no matter who’s pitching to him at Coors. Yadier Molina (108 wRC+, .184 ISO), Jose Martinez (125 wRC+, .154 ISO), Tyler O’Neill (122 wRC+, .200 ISO) and Paul DeJong (105 wRC+, .197 ISO) have all been competent or better against RHP too. The Cardinals are essentially tied for the top spot on the board at 5.3 implied runs.