Yulieski Gurriel Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Six teams either reach or exceed a five run total on Friday night and only one of them is playing at Coors, which makes some sense in a solid pitching matchup. In fact, the Rockies are only fourth on the board at 5.15 implied runs. The Dodgers, Blue Jays and Yankees all exceed that mark, but the Houston Astros sit merely in the middle of the board at 4.35. Marco Gonzales allowed three homers to the Twins in his first start, walking two and striking out just a single batter with a 4.9 SwStr%. He has a 32.6 GB%, 15.5 HR/FB and has allowed 11.4% Barrels/BBE since last season with just an 18.2 K%. His best estimator, a 4.96 SIERA, is nearly a run above his 4.03 ERA over this span. Gonzales has also had his struggles with this Houston team that had a 117 wRC+ vs LHP last year. In 156 career PAs, current Astros have a career .368 xwOBA against him. You won’t find many Astros with high projected ownership rates today, despite the .358 wOBA RHBs have against Gonzales since last season. He’s been much better against LHBs (.250), but Statcast jumps that number over 100 points (.363 xwOBA). Seattle is a pitcher’s park, but added a humidor recently, which could boost offense. Two of the three projected LH Houston bats tonight (Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker) exceed a 130 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs LHP since last season. Among RHBs, Yuli Gurriel (151 wRC+, .205 ISO) is the only one who can say the same, though Jose Altuve (118 wRC+, .188 ISO) and Alex Bregman (123 wRC+, .118 ISO) have been proficient as well. The latter is off to a hot start with a 180 wRC+ overall this year.

Jose Quintana pitched just 10 innings over four outings last year and comes to Los Angeles after a 4.68 ERA in 2019 with a matching 4.57 xERA and 4.50 SIERA. He has a career 21 K%, but has cleared 22% just once in his career. He also has a career 8.4 SwStr%, but has only matched that mark once in his last four seasons. In 2018, he had a matching xERA and SIERA. The trajectory seems to be slowly downward with his last above average was in 2017 and even then, his ERA and xERA slightly exceeded four. It’s difficult to believe that he’ll be able to turn it around and become anything much more than that this point in his career. Even worse news, Quintana has particularly struggled against RHBs since 2019 (.333 wOBA), The Houston lineup is projected to include four batters above a 125 wRC+ against LHP since 2019 and three above a .250 ISO. We know about the damage Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman inflict on southpaws, but Yuli Gurriel (126 wRC+, .259 ISO since 2019) may be the value play here, costing at least $1K less on each site.

Despite a relatively easy schedule (vs. Mets, @ Orioles, vs. Athletics, vs. Tigers, @ Marlins) over his past 5 starts, Montgomery has struggled to a 4.80 xFIP, 7.8% K-BB and 1.52 WHIP with a 44% hard contact and .358 xwOBA allowed over the past 30 days. Tonight he gets by far the toughest matchup he’s had in a while, an Astros’ lineup that has a league-leading 133 wRC+ vs. LHP on the year, as well as a league-leading 135 wRC+ over the past 30 days. Jose Altuve (.437 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Yordan Alvarez (.397), George Springer (.395), Robinson Chirinos (.386), Alex Bregman (.366), Aledmys Diaz (.348), Yuli Gurriel (.325) and Michael Brantley (.305) are all potential options in the Astros’ projected lineup. George Springer has been on fire with a scorching .462 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks. Yordan Alvarez has also seen the ball well with a .421 mark in the past 2 weeks. There aren’t many discounts to be had in this lineup, but they do have a nice 5.92 implied total and make for a solid GPP stack as usual.

Tommy Milone has allowed just three runs in 15.1 innings against Houston this year, seemingly the only LHP in baseball who’s held them in check (134 wRC+, 6.1 K-BB% vs LHP). On second check though, he’s struck out just 10 of 58 Astros and his 38.2 GB% suggests some luck that they’ve only left the yard once against him. In fact, Milone has allowed 10.2% Barrels/BBE despite an 86.7 mph aEV. His strikeouts have dropped to just 12% over the last month (23 IP), a period over which his xwOBA has climbed to .341. He’s allowed three home runs in five of his last nine outings. It would be quite the shock should he repeat past accomplishments against this dominant Houston offense. The Astros don’t yet have a team run line because the Mariners haven’t announced tonight’s opener, but there’s a good chance they’re at the top of the board. The negative run environment in Houston is not much of a penalty tonight without very many extremely positive run environments in play tonight and some difficult weather conditions around the league. The firm of Altuve (199 wRC+, .336 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Bregman (182 wRC+, .327 ISO) and Gurriel (132 wRC+, .278 ISO) should feast and the fact that LHBs (.353 wOBA, .343 xwOBA) have hit Milone harder than RHBs (.312 wOBA, .317 xwOBA), along with the likelihood of a right-handed opener, certainly keeps Michael Brantley (122 wRC+, 104 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Yordan Alvarez (168 wRC+, .359 ISO) in play as well. Look for the Astros to get some pay back on Milone tonight.

Wojcieshowski is certainly not a good pitcher, but he has shown improvements this year with a 28.8% K rate and 4.21 SIERA. However, Vegas is clearing not buying it as the Astros currently have a ridiculous 7.28 implied total. Projection systems are not buying Wojciechowski’s recent improvements either, as most systems have him as a roughly 6 ERA guy going forward. The Astros are red-hot right now on offense; they scored 23 runs last night and have a 165 wRC+ over the past 14 days. Yordan Alvarez (.431 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), George Springer (.393), Michael Brantley (.378), Alex Bregman (.374), Carlos Correa (.369), Yuli Gurriel (.324) and Jose Altuve (.317) are all great options. Yordan Alavrez has an insane .579 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks and has been by-far the hottest Astro hitter. Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa also have xwOBAs over .400 over the past 2 weeks. The Astros project to see plenty of plate appearances versus an Oriole’s bullpen that is terrible (2nd worst 4.65 SIERA on the year) and also has been stretched pretty thin over the past few days. There currently is not another team within a run of the Astros’ 7.28 implied total.

It’s been another frustrating season for Dylan Bundy, who is again posting a solid K-BB (15.7%) but doesn’t have much to show for it (5.15 ERA). Bundy does have an improved .313 xwOBA allowed this year, but with a pedestrian 7.3% barrel rate and 88.3 MPH aEV according to Statcast. Bundy is more vulnerable vs. left-handed bats (.347 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB, .293 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB since 2018) but can be targeted from both sides of the plate tonight given the quality of the Astros lineup. With the Astros’ lineup back to full strength and arguably the best it’s been since their break-out 2017, there are plenty of options in play: Yordan Alvarez (.408 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), George Springer (.396), Michael Brantley (.378), Alex Bregman (.371), Carlos Correa (.369), Yuli Gurriel (.322) and Jose Altuve (.315) are all great options tonight. Alvarez has been their hottest hitter with a .457 xwOBA over the past 14 days, followed by Bregman (.393) and Altuve (.383). All the aforementioned hitters will cost $5k+ on Draftkings, but they could very well be worth it given the juicy 6.56 implied total.

The Astros will face an opener (Sam Tuivailala) and then project to face Tommy Milone in long relief. Milone actually has a decent K-BB (17.8%) but gets hit hard when the ball is put in play, as he has an ugly 11.6% barrel rate and .393 xwOBA on contact. Milone is worse vs. righties with a .359 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB since 2017 compared to a .322 mark vs. LHB. The Astros come into this game with a ridiculous 138 wRC+ over the past 30 days that leads the league by far. They have a projected lineup full of great options this afternoon: Jose Altuve (.486 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Carlos Correa (.448), George Springer (.430), Yordan Alvarez (.425), Alex Bregman (.368), Josh Reddick (.333), Yuli Gurriel (.320) and Michael Brantley (.306) are all in play. Altuve has been their hottest bat with a .444 xwOBA over the past 14 days, followed by Springer (.403) and Alvarez (.398). Astros bats are expensive across the industry, but no lineup has more upside this afternoon. They currently have a 6.37 implied line vs. the Mariners this afternoon.