Zac Gallen Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

If you’re not liking the pricing at the top of the board tonight, Zac Gallen owns the fourth highest projected point total on either site (PlateIQ), but costs just $7.6K on DraftKings, where he currently owns a top two point per dollar value projection. Gallen has allowed just a single run over 14 innings, striking out exactly one-quarter of 56 batters faced with just four walks. While the 0.60 ERA is obviously unsustainable, he’s allowed just two barrels (5.4%) with an 86.5 mph EV so far. Gallen seems to be finally healthy and throwing a mile per hour harder than he ever has at the major league level. The Marlins have a 120 wRC+, but 23.5 K% vs RHP. For additional notes on mid-to-low priced pitching options on Monday night, including Drew Rasmussen and Chris Paddack, check out the Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Zac Gallen impressed with a 2.81 ERA and 28.7 K% in his rookie year. Through four starts in 2020, he has a 2.74 ERA and 29.8 K%. His FIP is a bit higher due to a doubled HR/FB (20%), but his xFIP has dropped along with his walk rate (7.4%). His ground ball rate (45.6%) is up significantly as well, but the contact he’s generated has been harder by more than two miles per hour (89.7). As a result, he’s already more than 50% of the way to his total number of Barrels last season (8) with five. Gallen’s a good pitcher, but with an 85.7 career LOB%, his ERA may have close to a full run of regression in it. The A’s are a tough lineup (115 wRC+, 12 BB% vs RHP – 149 wRC+, 21.2 HR/FB overall last seven days), but they’re coming off a series against one of the worst pitching staffs in the league in San Francisco and will be without Ramon Laureano again tonight. Gallen doesn’t have much of a split, holding batters from either side of the plate below a .300 wOBA and .160 ISO in his career, but this is still an Oakland lineup that produces quality bats against RHP nearly all the way through. That said, we still may not find a better pitcher on tonight’s slate than Gallen. Only Toukie Toussaint has a higher strikeout rate and Gallen likely has the higher floor of the two. One concern could be if Arizona decides to open the roof again tonight.

There are several marginal, but no single great pitching option on a five game, Wednesday night slate, featuring weather concerns in Baltimore and Boston where Eduardo Rodriguez and James Paxton are pitching. The games in Seattle and Arizona features no weather concerns, but some interesting pitchers. Zac Gallen makes his first start for the Diamondbacks, having struck out 17 of his last 52 batters, allowing just two runs over his last 14 innings. His 28.5 K% and .291 xwOBA have come against a decent quality of opposition. His estimators run around a full run or higher above his 2.27 ERA due to an 11.9 BB%, .259 BABIP, 80.9 LOB% and 8.3 HR/FB. While Arizona isn’t very power friendly, it’s still likely a park downgrade for Gallen coming from Miami and we can except to see him regress a bit. He faces a nearly league average Philadelphia offense with a 22.7 K% and 13.5 HR/FB vs RHP at a cost within $600 of $9K on either site. An argument can be made that Joey Lucchesi is the more interesting arm despite merely a league average strikeout rate (22.8%) and the completion of six innings in just two of his last seven starts. While nothing further stands out in his 4.23 ERA, 4.42 SIERA, 3.83 DRA or .308 xwOBA, Lucchesi is facing an offense with a team 52 wRC+, 32 K% and 5.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week. A look at tonight’s lineup in PlateIQ reveals a combined average 29.4 K% vs LHP this year, including seven of the nine batters with more than 60 PAs against southpaws this year. Each of the first five batters have struck out at least 24% of the time against LHP this year. Lucchesi may not give you the workload you want, but costs just $7.3K on FanDuel and is $600 less than Gallen on DraftKings.

Jake Odorizzi was smoked for another nine runs against the Yankees last time out. Over his last seven starts, he has a 7.99 ERA, 6.75 FIP and 5.60 xFIP as he’s lost his ability to miss bats up in the zone at an above average rate (86.1 Z-Contact%, 9.9 SwStr%). Consider that his season marks are still 79.8% and 11.8%. The obvious solution to this problem is a trip to Miami (Marlins 76 wRC+, 18.7 K-BB% vs RHP, 83 wRC+, 11.4 HR/FB at home). At a cost above $9K on DraftKings, trust issues are understandable for a pitcher with a .364 xwOBA over the last month that’s still 85 points below his actual mark and is now allowing 10.5% Barrels/BBE on the season. However, a $7.3K price tag on FanDuel in this great spot makes him a bit more marketable.

On the other side of this matchup, the Twins are not often an offense it’s suggested to roster pitchers against (114 wRC+, 20.7 K%, 17 HR/FB vs RHP), but not only do they lose a DH (which in this case is Nelson Cruz) and suffer a significant park downgrade tonight, but Zac Gallen has made an impact in his first six trips to a major league mound. His largest flaw is a 12% walk rate and while his 6.7 HR/FB is probably unsustainable even in Miami, he’s produced a board leading 28.5 Z-O-Swing% and 2.7% Barrels/BBE to go along with his 28 K% and .290 xwOBA. Gallen is within $300 of $8K on either site.

Zac Gallen had an impressive debut in which he struck out six of 22 Cardinals and allowed just a single run in St Louis, following up 91.1 AAA innings with a 33.6 K% and just a 5.1 BB% that has pushed him up to the teams fifth best prospect with a 50 Future Value grade and 114th overall in the league according to the latest Fangraphs rankings. For an encore, Gallen faces a marginal Washington offense vs RHP (87 wRC+, 14.3 K-BB%, 13.9 HR/FB) in one of the most negative run environments in baseball. There aren’t a lot of high priced pitchers to pair him with tonight, but players who buy into his performance for less than $8K tonight will have a lot of room left over for offense with half the board above 4.7 implied runs tonight and 33% of the board (six teams) above five. Another interesting factor here has been a substantial line drop in Miami’s favor despite a majority of action on the other side.