Zack Wheeler Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Zack Wheeler struck out just four of the 22 Cardinals he faced in the Wild Card round with a single walk, a HBP and four hits over 6.2 shutout innings. He missed a month near the end of the season, but came back to strike out 15 of his final 52 batters. The discouraging part of that is that his swinging strike rate did not exceed 8.1% in any start since his return and averages at 5.6%. However, his velocity was intact with 63.9% of his contact on the ground and an 85.4 mph EV. Striking out a healthy 26.9% of batters (21.3 K-BB%), he’s the rare Phillies’ pitcher with all estimators above his 2.82 ERA, though they only extend to a 3.19 SIERA. That’s said because the Phillies are the only post-season team with a below average defense. In fact, -31 Runs Prevented is second worst in the majors, though Realmuto remains a top catcher (11.3 CDA is seventh) and they did improve the defense with some trade deadline acquisitions. The Braves have a 108 wRC+, but 25.1 K% vs RHP and also have a 16+ HR/FB both vs RHP and at home. Potentially a problem, Wheeler doesn’t have a pitch the Braves struggled against in the second half of the season. They were particularly proficient against sliders (0.32 wSL/C). Wheeler was strong in three starts against the Braves this year (20 IP – 6 ER – 3 HR – 1 BB – 25 K – 77 BF). Despite some weather concerns and an extremely hitter friendly umpire (neither of which are baked into projections), Wheeler projects as the top pitcher on the board and as the third most expensive one, the top projected FanDuel value. Wheeler is the second most expensive DraftKings pitcher and second best projected DK value.

Offensively, the Braves (4.04 implied runs) are essentially tied with the Dodgers for the top team run total, yet Ronald Acuna Jr. (118 wRC+, .153 ISO vs RHP this year) is the only top 10 projected Atlanta bat, while batters from either side of the plate are between a .262 and .290 wOBA and xwOBA against Wheeler this season. However, the first eight batters in the Atlanta confirmed lineup all exceed a 100 wRC+ and .150 ISO vs RHP this year. The Atlanta lineup does not feature a top 10 projected FanDuel value, but Eddie Rosario (64 wRC+, .122 ISO) and Marcell Ozuna (108 wRC+, .248 ISO) project as top 10 DraftKings values for less than $3K.

Strikeouts are down a bit (22.8% last five starts) and Zack Wheeler has had a couple of blowup games over his last six, but he’s still produced 12 Quality Starts in his last 15 tries. With a 21.2 K-BB% and great contact profile (85.9 mph EV, 6.3% Barrels/BBE, 33.5% 95+ mph EV), Wheeler’s 2.78 ERA lines up perfectly with his 2.77 FIP. It’s below, but within one-third of a run of all estimators. The Pittsburgh offense is fairly atrocious against every pitch in Wheeler’s arsenal and have an 85 wRC+ (25.4 K%) vs RHP overall with a 44 wRC+ since the break. Wheeler is not the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, but the only one to reach a $10K price point on both sites and is the most expensive DraftKings arm. He is the second best projected pitcher on the board in this favorable spot, despite the hitter friendly weather, but projects just outside the top five pitching values on the slate. For tonight’s top projected arm and value plus more on a pair of potentially over-priced pitchers, check out Thursday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

We get the full 15 on DraftKings on Tuesday with FanDuel omitting the second game of the double-header in Cleveland. There are no fewer than six $10K pitchers on the board with Zach Wheeler and Carlos Rodon the only two pitchers to reach that mark on both sites. Wheeler failed to complete six innings for just the second time in 10 starts last time out, as the Rangers ran up his pitch count and knocked him out in the fifth. He still struck out eight of 23 batters and has struck out at least seven in nine of those 10 starts. With a 22.4 K-BB%, above average ground ball rate and great contact management (86.8 mph EV, 5.6% Barrels/BBE), his 2.77 ERA is firmly within a quarter of a run of all non-FIP estimators (5.0 HR/FB with just three of 11 barrels leaving the park). Wheeler is in a dangerous, but high upside matchup against the Braves (101 wRC+, 25.4 K%, 14.8 HR/FB vs RHP) and may also benefit slightly from the fact that they line up predominantly right-handed. The most expensive arm on the board at $10.8K on DraftKings ($400 less on FanDuel), Wheeler is the second best projected arm on the board and a top five projected value on FanDuel. With a loaded pitching board tonight, some in great spots, some not so great, who projects as tonight’s top arm? Check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out.

No shortage of top end arms on a 10 game slate, as two pitchers reach the $10K price point on both sites tonight with three more only on FanDuel. The most expensive DraftKings pitcher ($10.2K) and $100 more, but only the fifth priciest on FanDuel is Brandon Woodruff. One start after Brandon Woodruff being pulled after three shutout innings for no apparent reason, Woodruff was blown up by the Cardinals for a season high six runs with two home runs, striking out just four of 24 batters. A 7.0 SwStr% in that game was also Woodruff’s worst mark of the season. While all estimators are above his 2.48 ERA this season, a 3.36 SIERA sits as the worst of those, produced with a 22.8 K-BB% and just 5% Barrels/BBE. The Reds have a 109 wRC+ and 17.1 HR/FB vs RHP, though more average power on the road (14 HR/FB). There aren’t a ton of strikeouts in the projected lineup with only one batter above 24.3% vs RHP this season.

The other pitcher reaching $10K on both sites is third most expensive on FanDuel ($11K) and exactly $1K less on DraftKings, where he should be considered one of the top values on the board. Zack Wheeler has allowed at least four runs in five of his last eight starts with a just a 24.8 K% (5.0 BB%), but still has just a 4.28 ERA over that span with no fewer than five strikeouts because he’s such a workhorse. He’s failed to complete six innings or face at least 26 batters just once each during this stretch. A 3.16 SIERA is Wheeler’s only estimator above three this season, as all are within half a run of his 2.77 ERA. The matchup is less than ideal against an offense with a 111 wRC+ vs RHP in a dangerous park, but the Rays lose the DH and Wheeler has been efficiently navigating this environment all season. Three of eight projected hitters for Tampa Bay exceed a 24.5 K% vs RHP. The workload expectation probably may make Wheeler the top overall arm on the board, as well as one of the top values.

Walker Buehler is the one guy on the board who can compete with Wheeler’s workload. Early on, he had contact issues with reduced velocity on his fastball, but after allowing 20 barrels over his first 11 starts, he’s allowed just nine of his last 14. Then the strikeout rate sat at just 23.8% after his first 13 starts, but has jumped up to 30.2% over his last 12. All the while, he kept pounding out quality start after quality start, missing just three times this year. While his 2.11 ERA is still well below all of his estimators, those estimators are all running at 3.65 (SIERA) or better. Buehler has the more favorable park than Wheeler, but faces a more contact prone offense (only one projected batter above a 23 K% vs RHP). Buehler is $300 more expensive than Wheeler on FanDuel, but $300 less expensive on DraftKings. It should be interesting to see how ownership shakes out between the two.

Shohei Ohtani is the most expensive pitcher on the board, carrying an $11.6K price tag on FanDuel. Since his debacle at Yankee Stadium, Ohtani has thrown thrown six straight quality starts with a total of seven runs allowed with a 25 K% and just four walks. While all estimators are well above his 2.79 ERA on the season, the worst is still just a 3.73 SIERA. He has a great matchup (Orioles 87 wRC+ vs RHP with seven of nine projected above a 23.5 K% vs RHP this year) in a difficult environment. Ohtani is a much better value for nearly $3K less on DraftKings.

Lastly, Robbie Ray is $10.5K on FanDuel, but $1.6K less on DraftKings. He tops the board with a 30.7 K%. It’s starting to get scary because Ray seems to have solved his lone remaining issue. He’s allowed just a single home run and four barrels over his last five starts. While his 2.79 ERA is below all of his estimators (89.5 LOB%), though the worst is just a 3.65 FIP. The White Sox have a 111 wRC+ and 15.9 HR/FB vs LHP with marginal strikeout totals in the projected lineup, but Ray did set a season high with 13 strikeouts in his only outing against the White Sox this year. Wheeler and Beuhler are your highest floors and certainly can compete for the top ceilings as well, while the remaining three are all fine GPP upside plays, where going against projected ownership may be your best play tonight.

Oddly, DraftKings is the site with more $10K pitchers tonight (three to two) with both Walker Buehler and Zack Wheeler reaching that price on both sites. The 26.4 K% isn’t elite, but it’s above average and the 5.8 BB% nearly is elite, while Buehler has failed to produce a quality start in just three outings this season. That said, his 2.31 ERA is well below estimators (.234 BABIP, 82.7 LOB%), though the worst of them is a 3.64 SIERA. The Giants have a 110 wRC+ and 16.6 HR/FB vs RHP, but also a 25.7 K%, though only one batter in tonight’s projected lineup reaches that mark. You’re going to get length out of Buehler, but for $11.5K on FanDuel and even $10K on DraftKings, the value return might be marginal.

The longer Jacob deGrom remains out, the closer Wheeler comes to a Cy Young. Among those with more than a few starts, he tops the board with a 30.4 K%, to which he adds a 5.7 BB% with nearly half his contact on the ground (49.7%) and an 84.5 mph EV (4.2% Barrels/BBE). He’s completed seven innings in 12 of 20 starts and his 3.07 SIERA is the only estimator above three. He has to weather a positive run environment, but has been negotiating that park in Philly all year. The Nationals have just a 94 wRC+ vs RHP and will be without Trea Turner tonight. At a lesser cost, Wheeler is the superior value tonight and potentially the top overall arm.

The last $10K pitcher on DraftKings is a bit mind blowing as Tyler Mahle costs $2.9K less on FanDuel, where his superior strikeout rate (29.2%) might still afford him some value, despite recent struggles. Mentioned in a recent New York Times article as one of the pitchers most effected by the new sticky substance rules, Mahle hasn’t felt it in his strikeout rate that much, which still remains above a quarter of batters faced over the last month, but he has allowed seven home runs over his last five starts and walked 15 of his last 98 batters faced. On the season, a 4.02 FIP is his only estimator above a 3.92 ERA, though none are more than one-third of a run below. While the weather seems hitter friendly at Wrigley tonight, Weather Edge suggests it may not be a significant factor (though that could change). The Cubs have just an 88 wRC+ and 26.5 K% vs RHP, plus who knows who’ll still be with the team tonight.

Two more pitchers worth mentioning are Anthony DeSclafani, who is a bit below $9K on either site and Lucas Giolito, who’s above $9K on both. Eighteen of Anthony DeSclafani’s 39 runs allowed have been surrendered to the Dodgers, though his most recent outing was a quality start against them with seven strikeouts. But this will be the fifth time he’s faced them over a 12 start span, which has to give some advantage to the offense. DeSclafani has otherwise been a very productive pitcher with a 17.1 K-BB% and not a single estimator reaching four, although all are well above his 2.87 ERA (.239 BABIP, 80.7 LOB%). He’s a reasonable GPP leverage play against a lineup that doesn’t seem to be clicking on all cylinders right now. Giolito has suffered from inconsistency. He just followed up a three hit, eight strikeout complete game against the Astros by walking more Brewers than he struck out (five to three). The overall numbers are very good, if not great. A 20.3 K-BB% has generated estimators fairly close to his 3.78 ERA with a 4.23 DRA and 3.41 xERA being exceptions. He’s certainly GPP worthy in Kansas City (88 wRC+, 10.6 HR/FB vs RHP) where the projected lineup includes five batters above a 26 K% vs RHP this year.