From DFS to FanDuel Sportsbook in New Jersey: Thursday, September 27th
Online sports betting is now a very real and completely legal process in New Jersey. As laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to succeed in a sports betting endeavor.
Please note that I do not profess to be good at this (as the current record now attests). Follow along at your own peril.
Today’s Plays
(Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)
Final update for Thursday.
MLB
Mets +102 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.02
NFL
Vikings +7 (-106) (SH) -1.05 units to win 2.05
6:30 ET Update
It looks like those two games are going to be the extent of our interest tonight. Back tomorrow for our last MLB regular season look.
5:30 ET Update
We’re waiting on just the west coast lineups now. I had a lean on the total in Wrigley. While both pitchers have been preventing runs at a ridiculous clip, their peripherals are obviously a bit higher, but still strong enough to consider under nine runs. While the wind is blowing out a bit, the cooler weather offsets that a bit. The problem I’m running into is that both pitchers are fly ball pitchers and neither bullpen is all that great. I’m going to pass here and on both the games in Minnesota and the other side of Chicago starting at 8 pm ET, as well as the individual pitcher strikeout props tonight. That leaves us with just the only MLB play for tonight so far. I’ll be back with one more update considering the late game and college football affair tonight before kickoff.
4:15 ET Update
Nothing I’ve read today dissuades me from the buy low/sell high theory on the NFL game tonight. In fact, while it seems both teams are banged up, the Rams appear to be missing both starting CBs. I’m going to lock in the TD now and may even add another unit if the line climbs upward.
On the baseball front, just a few lineups in, but Atlanta’s does not include Freddie Freeman, who hits LHP well. Both pitchers have been pitching well, but the Mets have a few hot LHBs and LHBs give Julio Teheran trouble. In addition, the Atlanta bullpen has a 3.9 K-BB% over the last month. This is a meaningless game for Atlanta. Interestingly, there also seems to be some reverse line movement in this game with the Mets receiving very little backing. I would consider an under bet, but just noticed a hitter friendly umpire in this game.
Vikings +7 (-106) (SH) -1.05 units to win 2.05
Mets +102 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.02
Yesterday’s Results:
German Marquez at least 8 strikeouts (+140) (BS) 1 unit to win 2.4 W +1.4
Brewers -110 (FD) 1.1 units to win 2.1 W +1
Pirates/Cubs 8o (-112) (SH) 1.11 units to win 2.11 W +1
Tigers +128 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.28 L -1
Dodgers -112 (FD) 1.12 units to win 2.12 L -1.12
Rangers/Angels 8.5u (-108) (FD) 1.08 units to win 2.08 W +1
Padres 104 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.04 W +1.04
MLB
Day Total 5-2 +3.32
Grand Total 84-94-1 -1.08 units
Sides 43-57 -6.62 units
Totals 36-28-1 +5.29 units
Parlays 3-6 -1.62 units
Props 4-4 +1.9 units
NFL
Day Total
Grand Total 5-3 +2.74 units
Spread 2-0 +2 unit
Moneyline 2-0 +2.05 unit
Totals 1-1 -0.06 unit
Parlays 0-1 -1 unit
Props 0-1 -0.25 units
CFB
Day Total
Grand Total 4-4 -0.4 units
Spread 2-2 -0.2 units
Totals 2-2 -0.2 units
Yesterday’s Recap
The obvious highlight in the existence of this piece occurred last night when the German Marquez eight strikeout prop cashed after facing just eight batters. I seriously considered leaving on a high note and ending this article here, but you deserve better.
Brewers win a sloppy 2-1 game.
The eighth and pushing run crossed the plate in the top of the fifth. Several frames without a score made this a bit of a sweat until cashing in the top of the eighth.
Here’s a link to the Statcast feed for the Dodgers/D’Backs game last night. They certainly have to prevent the other team from scoring runs better, but all of the hard contact, none of the results for the Dodgers.
The Rangers and Angels never seemed like it was in danger of going over.
The Padres had the lead the entire way again and offered another sweat, but eventually held on this time.
A much needed profitable day, put the number in green this late in the week for the first time in a few weeks. Still struggling with the sides, the totals and pitcher props have been a strength, which makes some sense coming from a DFS background.
Weather and Props
The FanDuel Daily Odds Boost is the Rams winning by at least two TDs (+225), which I’m sure I’m going to bypass tonight.
Along with several Odds Boost NFL props for tonight, Stars has pitcher props for the Yankees & Rays, including six or more strikeouts for a pitcher who rarely faces more than six batters per appearance. They also have props for the Phillies & Rockies, Braves & Mets, and Pirates & Cubs. None of these particularly pop to me, but I will do the work as lineups come out to see if there is a fit.
According to the early forecast, the most interesting weather situation is in Baltimore, where it’s cooler and winds are blowing in lightly. However, that game also has some delay possibilities in a game that doesn’t mean much for Houston, so I could see Gerrit Cole getting an early exit from this contest.
Early NFL Thoughts
I’m planning on looking into the football game more in depth right after finishing here, but my first thought, not knowing the schedule this past Sunday is wondering if the Vikings were looking ahead to the Rams on the short week here? I’m initially liking the Vikings for a TD because it’s obviously the contrarian thing to do, but it makes some sense that they were taking a win against the Bills for granted. This thought process could change over the course of the day.
Sharp Side
Officially launched and available in the Apple (iOS) store now, the SharpSide app (@SharpSideApp) and they’re giving away prizes all weekend. Make your picks on the app, starting tonight (9/27) and win up to $500 this weekend!
RotoGrinders has launched Sharp Side, a new sports betting app. Track plays and win great prizes right now! Many more tools and features are to come.