German Marquez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

German Marquez, Logan Webb, Patrick Sandoval and Sandy Alcantara all have several factors in common tonight. They all generate more than half their contact on the ground with a strikeout rate above 22% and cost below $9K tonight (Marquez’s FanDuel price tag being the lone exception). Marquez (25 K%, 13 SwStr%, 52.6 GB%, 3.7 Barrels/BBE) and Alcantara (22.2 K%, 54.1 GB%, 4.5% Barrels/BBE) actually face off against each other at Coors, but the offenses are so bad (Marlins 90 wRC+, 25 K% vs RHP – Rockies 73 wRC+, 23.1 K% vs RHP) that they still may two of the top arms on the board tonight. Marquez has a 3.51 ERA that’s within half a run of all his estimators and has completed six inning in 14 of his last 15 starts. The Miami projected lineup includes five batters above a 28 K% vs RHP this year. Some extra off time in July seemed to help Alcantara. Strikeouts had been slipping going into the month, but he tied a season high, whiffing 10 Yankees last time out. Estimators are back below four, including a 3.23 xERA that runs fairly closely to his 3.12 ERA. The projected Colorado lineup includes just three above a 24 K% vs RHP, but also only as many above a .325 wOBA against RHP this year, despite the environmental effects of Coors.

Webb’s strikeout rate is down to 19.8% in five starts back from the IL, but his ground ball rate is up to 64.7% over this span. His season rates are a 24.1 K% with a 60.3 GB% and just 6.4% Barrels/BBE without a single estimator more than one-quarter of a run removed from his 3.33 ERA. The Milwaukee lineup has improved at the deadline, now including only three above a 23.5 K% among those projected tonight, but it’s also a neutral run environment and Webb costs $7.6K or less on either site.

Patrick Sandoval walked six Oakland batters the start after he nearly threw a no-hitter with 12 strikeouts. It was the second time he’d walked at least five in a start, but otherwise no more than two this year. He had also completed seven innings in three straight before last time out. He has a 27.4 K%, 52.6 GB% and 5.7% Barrels/BBE (85.4 mph EV) on the season. A full season of that generally puts you in Cy Young contention. The Dodgers have a manageable 99 wRC+ vs LHP and three of eight projected batters have at least a 27 K% vs LHP this season. Sandoval is within $300 of $8.5K on either site and is a great GPP leverage play if players fear the Dodger lineup too much to roster him.

Two more quality pitchers we find below $8K on DraftKings are Nathan Eovaldi (23.6 K%) and J.T. Brubaker (23.8 K%) in high risk matchups. Eovaldi has a 29.7 K% (13.4 SwStr%) over his last four starts and now a 19.3 K-BB% with just 5.6% Barrels/BBE on the year. His 3.71 ERA is a near perfect match to his 3.73 SIERA with additional non-FIP estimators a bit lower, but pitches in Toronto (Blue Jays 114 wRC+, 21.1 K%, 16.3 HR/FB vs RHP). Brubaker has produced an 18.0 K-BB% this year, but has run into significant long ball issues (21.4 HR/FB). The good news is that his contact profile emits a perfectly average 88.4 mph EV and 8.7% Barrels/BBE with 21 of his 25 barrels leaving the yard, so he should be able to get through this. The bad news is that he pitches in the most power friendly park in the league tonight (Reds 109 wRC+, 18.8 HR/FB at home).

Tonight’s slate includes a few arms in the mid and low range that could be considered high upside for different reasons. After striking out 20 of his last 48 batters, German Marquez has now struck out exactly one-quarter of the batters he’s faced with 54.1% of his contact on the ground and just 3.4% Barrels/BBE. He has a 3.36 ERA without a single estimator reaching four. Furthermore, he has 13 quality starts in 19 tries and has gone at least seven innings in three of his last four. The workload could potentially elevate his raw strikeout totals, while the ground balls have helped limit the damage at Coors. Seattle’s 90 wRC+ and 26 K% vs RHP doesn’t tell us enough with a high amount of turnover in that lineup, but they lose the DH tonight and four of eight projected exceed a 26 K% vs RHP this season. Don’t fear Coors, for $8.6K or less, Marquez may be one of the top values on the board in a strong spot.

Shane McClanahan’s 4.05 ERA is a bit above all of his estimators, due to 19.1 HR/FB, but even his FIP (3.80) and xERA (3.85) are below four. A 19.9 K-BB% and 15.9 SwStr% suggest he still has upside to come. Workload has been an issue for McClanahan, but he has exceeded 85 pitches in four of his last five starts and has had 11 days rest with the break. While the Orioles do have a 108 wRC+ and 22 K% vs LHP, the dome in Tampa Bay may be the most negative run environment on the board and McClanahan costs $8.6K or less on either site.

Dane Dunning has only completed six innings twice this season, so the workload isn’t ideal, but on a per batter basis, his rate stats are very strong. He’s struck out a quarter of the batters he’s faced (24.9%) with more than half his contact on the ground (53.8%). His 4.22 ERA is above all of his estimators (.361 BABIP), but only more than a half run above his xFIP (3.57) and FIP (3.35). The Detroit offense absolutely destroyed Kyle Gibson and the Texas pen last night, but still has just a 90 wRC+ and 26.4 K% vs RHP. Only two of nine projected batters are below a 23.5 K% vs RHP this year. While the slighter workload limits him, Dunning costs just $6.7K on DraftKings, where he’d pair well with a higher priced arm.

German Marquez has been pitching well with an increase in strikeouts over the last month (32.5%), giving him a 19.8 K-BB% on the season. He has a 3.48 ERA with a 2.90 SIERA and .292 xwOBA over the last month. He still has the highest aEV on the board (90.2%) with a 4.71 ERA a run above estimators because, well, Coors, but his 2.85 ERA is nearly two runs lower. While 14 of his 27 HRs have actually been allowed on the road, his ERA is cut in half (3.52 vs 6.26) with a wOBA against nearly 100 points lower (.265 vs .356) away from Coors. St Louis is a negative run environment and significantly power suppressing park. That can change during the hot summer months, but conditions tonight do not appear particularly warm with a nearly neutral wind situation. In other words, this is a pretty massive park upgrade for a pitcher who has recently begun pitching as he did in a dominant second half of 2018. The Cardinals may be finally healthy, but are still struggling with the bats and have just an 86 wRC+, 23.2 K% and 12.9 HR/FB vs RHP this year to go along with an 11 HR/FB at home. Marquez may be nearly adequately priced on DraftKings ($10.6K), but could be a bargain for nearly $2K less on FanDuel ($8.8K).

This slate is pretty dry at SP, so we need to get a bit creative here to find some value. Although Marquez is pitching in Coors, there are a few reasons to like him tonight, especially in GPPs. He’s had a bit of an up and down season but has seemingly found a groove over the past month with a 3.27 ERA / 2.97 xFIP, 28.5% K rate / 3.3% BB rate and a 13.9% SwStr. Marquez is facing the Marlins tonight at home, who have just a 75 wRC+ and 25% K Rate vs. RHP this year. They also have a league-worst 77 wRC+ over the past 30 days and were shut out last night in Coors. Rostering any pitcher in Coors is a risky sentiment, but Marquez has fared decently well at home: since 2018, he has a 3.14 xFIP, 19.6% K-BB and a .307 xwOBA allowed in home starts. Marquez is also much better vs. righties as he has allowed a .331 xwOBA and 14.1% K-BB vs. lefties compared to a .263 xwOBA allowed and 26.9% K-BB (!) vs. righties since 2018. The Marlins project to have just 3 left-handed bats in their order tonight. Given how this slate is lacking at SP, there aren’t many guys with Marquez’s upside in his price range tonight. The Marlins currently have a 4.36 implied total.

German Marquez has largely been a bit of a disappointment this year, at least when looking at his 4.82 ERA. He hasn’t been as bad as that number suggests though, as he’s also posted a 3.53 xFIP, 3.84 SIERA, 49.8% GB rate, 23.9% K rate and 4.7% BB rate, 12.9% SwStr and a .320 xwOBA allowed while pitching half his games in Coors. Marquez gets a huge park upgrade this afternoon, going from Coors to pitcher-friendly Petco to face the Padres. The Padres have a 92 wRC+ and ugly 26.2% K rate vs. RHP this year, though they do have an improved 106 wRC+ over the past 30 days. The projected lineup has just 3 batters who have an xwOBA greater than .325 vs. RHP this year. Since 2017, Marquez has a 3.50 ERA / 3.76 xFIP with a 24% K rate and 1.11 WHIP in road games. He’s priced at just $8.7k on Draftkings and $8.1k on Fanduel for this matchup. The Padres currently have a 4.25 implied line vs. Marquez and the Rockies.