JMToWin's NFL Edge: Week 16

by JM Tohline (JMToWin) Last Updated 2017-12-25 02:09:26 Premium Content Part of the product Combo Lite

Each week this NFL season, JMToWin will break down every game on the NFL slate from top to bottom, with a look at game flow, player matchups, coaching tendencies, DFS strategy, and anything else that shows up in his research that might give you an edge on the slate. Widely regarded as the most in-depth, DFS-specific article in the industry, this top-to-bottom breakdown is just what you need in order to conquer the slate and take home money each week!

Bills at Patriots

Vegas-Implied Total: Patriots 29.5, Bills 17.5

KEY MATCHUPS:

Patriots Run D – 32nd DVOA / 32nd Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O – 19th DVOA / 13th Yards per carry

Patriots Pass D – 21st DVOA / 25th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Bills Pass O – 28th DVOA / 28th Yards per pass attempt

Bills Run D – 28th DVOA / 18th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O – 6th DVOA / 15th Yards per carry

Bills Pass D – 12th DVOA / 6th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Patriots Pass O – 1st DVOA / 1st Yards per pass attempt

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LEVEL I – The Research

While the Patriots are not typically a team that can be relied on to do the same thing twice, they are a team that can be relied on to attack their opponent in whatever way their opponent is weakest. Their Week 16 opponent – the Buffalo Bills – are weakest on the ground (28th in run defense DVOA) and against the tight end (eighth-most catches and ninth-most yards allowed to the position). They are strongest against wide receivers (ninth in catches allowed, but impressively 24th in yards allowed to the position). The Bills have also allowed only 11 passing touchdowns this year, while allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.

The last time these teams met, the Patriots attacked accordingly – with Tom Brady throwing only 30 times, and with the running backs combining for more than 30 rush attempts. Of Brady’s 30 pass attempts, a whopping 11 went to Rob Gronkowski.

The matchup is great for Gronk (he shredded Buffalo for a 9-147 line a few weeks ago), with the only concern being the Bills’ frustration with Gronk from his cheap shot on Tre’Davious White (which led to Gronk’s one-game suspension).