NBA Situational Projections: Friday, March 23rd

When I first got into NBA DFS, the phrase I kept hearing was “minutes = money.” The concept is simple enough: A player averages a certain number of points per minute, and if he gets a certain number of minutes, we can expect him to be one of the best point per dollar scorers on the slate. Unfortunately, as we’ve all learned, not all projections are created equal. Every day, I build my own projection set for NBA. Some days, that’s easy. If a team has a neutral matchup and isn’t missing any bodies, a base set of projections works just fine. Other days though, especially as the NBA season rolls along, it gets a lot more complicated.

Friday, March 23rd

The Milwaukee Bucks feel like a cheat code today. Not only are the Bucks facing the dreadful Chicago Bulls, but the team is doing so without its best player, Giannis Antetokounmpo. Though he’s not expected to miss significant time, his absence tonight provides us with an opportunity to attack a bad defense with players who are likely to be underpriced.

Unless DraftKings and/or FanDuel were proactive and bumped on their prices, Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton, and the rest of the Bucks are priced for what they typically do with Giannis in the lineup. Now that he’s out, in theory, we should be able to easily attack the situation.

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About the Author


  • jakz101

    • $1M Prize Winner

    • x5

      2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    I forgot to note in this article that Brandon Jennings doesn’t have nearly enough of a sample size to give a meaningful projection to, but as a GPP play I think he’s perfectly fine tonight.

  • rsimone

    I agree. I’ve been eyeing Middleton and even thought about pairing Bledsoe with him in a couple of lineups. Unfortunately i’ve been missing on Bledsoe recently. So… If I like him maybe everyone should stay away. LOL

  • noheartanthony

    Middleton was damn near 9k on fanduel for at least a game a few months ago when Giannis missed a few. I think it was against the Suns but can’t say for sure because their game logs don’t go back that far. Pretty sure he put up 50+ that game.

  • SenderGreen

    Second noheartanthony

  • tbotch

    Great viewpoints! Appreciate your articles and how you let us in on your thought process. Definitely enlightening and will make me a better DFS player!

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