NBA Situational Projections: Friday, March 23rd
When I first got into NBA DFS, the phrase I kept hearing was “minutes = money.” The concept is simple enough: A player averages a certain number of points per minute, and if he gets a certain number of minutes, we can expect him to be one of the best point per dollar scorers on the slate. Unfortunately, as we’ve all learned, not all projections are created equal. Every day, I build my own projection set for NBA. Some days, that’s easy. If a team has a neutral matchup and isn’t missing any bodies, a base set of projections works just fine. Other days though, especially as the NBA season rolls along, it gets a lot more complicated.
Friday, March 23rd
The Milwaukee Bucks feel like a cheat code today. Not only are the Bucks facing the dreadful Chicago Bulls, but the team is doing so without its best player, Giannis Antetokounmpo. Though he’s not expected to miss significant time, his absence tonight provides us with an opportunity to attack a bad defense with players who are likely to be underpriced.
Unless DraftKings and/or FanDuel were proactive and bumped on their prices, Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton, and the rest of the Bucks are priced for what they typically do with Giannis in the lineup. Now that he’s out, in theory, we should be able to easily attack the situation.
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