NBA Situational Projections: Friday, March 23rd

When I first got into NBA DFS, the phrase I kept hearing was “minutes = money.” The concept is simple enough: A player averages a certain number of points per minute, and if he gets a certain number of minutes, we can expect him to be one of the best point per dollar scorers on the slate. Unfortunately, as we’ve all learned, not all projections are created equal. Every day, I build my own projection set for NBA. Some days, that’s easy. If a team has a neutral matchup and isn’t missing any bodies, a base set of projections works just fine. Other days though, especially as the NBA season rolls along, it gets a lot more complicated.

Friday, March 23rd

The Milwaukee Bucks feel like a cheat code today. Not only are the Bucks facing the dreadful Chicago Bulls, but the team is doing so without its best player, Giannis Antetokounmpo. Though he’s not expected to miss significant time, his absence tonight provides us with an opportunity to attack a bad defense with players who are likely to be underpriced.

Unless DraftKings and/or FanDuel were proactive and bumped on their prices, Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton, and the rest of the Bucks are priced for what they typically do with Giannis in the lineup. Now that he’s out, in theory, we should be able to easily attack the situation.

Our Premium content can help you make better picks every day

  • To read this full article for today’s NBA games, you need to have a subscription to FanDuel, DraftKings, or FantasyDraft Premium, our paid content package.
  • A Premium subscription will allow you to access this article and more.
Start your FREE 7-day trial

About the Author

Comments

  • jakz101

    • $1M Prize Winner

    • x5

      2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    I forgot to note in this article that Brandon Jennings doesn’t have nearly enough of a sample size to give a meaningful projection to, but as a GPP play I think he’s perfectly fine tonight.

  • rsimone

    I agree. I’ve been eyeing Middleton and even thought about pairing Bledsoe with him in a couple of lineups. Unfortunately i’ve been missing on Bledsoe recently. So… If I like him maybe everyone should stay away. LOL

  • noheartanthony

    Middleton was damn near 9k on fanduel for at least a game a few months ago when Giannis missed a few. I think it was against the Suns but can’t say for sure because their game logs don’t go back that far. Pretty sure he put up 50+ that game.

  • SenderGreen

    Second noheartanthony

  • tbotch

    Great viewpoints! Appreciate your articles and how you let us in on your thought process. Definitely enlightening and will make me a better DFS player!

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

New to DFS?

Be sure to click through our links and use our exclusive promo codes to receive the industry's best sign-up bonuses, including free access to our premium content.

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).