NBA Situational Projections: Friday, March 23rd

When I first got into NBA DFS, the phrase I kept hearing was “minutes = money.” The concept is simple enough: A player averages a certain number of points per minute, and if he gets a certain number of minutes, we can expect him to be one of the best point per dollar scorers on the slate. Unfortunately, as we’ve all learned, not all projections are created equal. Every day, I build my own projection set for NBA. Some days, that’s easy. If a team has a neutral matchup and isn’t missing any bodies, a base set of projections works just fine. Other days though, especially as the NBA season rolls along, it gets a lot more complicated.

Friday, March 23rd

The Milwaukee Bucks feel like a cheat code today. Not only are the Bucks facing the dreadful Chicago Bulls, but the team is doing so without its best player, Giannis Antetokounmpo. Though he’s not expected to miss significant time, his absence tonight provides us with an opportunity to attack a bad defense with players who are likely to be underpriced.

Unless DraftKings and/or FanDuel were proactive and bumped on their prices, Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton, and the rest of the Bucks are priced for what they typically do with Giannis in the lineup. Now that he’s out, in theory, we should be able to easily attack the situation.

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About the Author

jakz101
Eric Crain (jakz101)

Eric Crain, aka jakz101, is a former professional poker player who started playing DFS full time in October of 2015. He has qualified multiple times for live finals and is routinely ranked at the top of all the major sport leaderboards. Perhaps his biggest claim to fame is when he won the DraftKings NFL Millionaire Maker in October of 2016 (as well as finishing 3rd and 4th). A popular RotoGrinders contributor, Crain hosts multiple shows each week and often provides excellent in-depth written analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members.

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