NBA Situational Projections: Wednesday, March 21st

When I first got into NBA DFS, the phrase I kept hearing was “minutes = money.” The concept is simple enough: A player averages a certain number of points per minute, and if he gets a certain number of minutes, we can expect him to be one of the best point per dollar scorers on the slate. Unfortunately, as we’ve all learned, not all projections are created equal. Every day, I build my own projection set for NBA. Some days, that’s easy. If a team has a neutral matchup and isn’t missing any bodies, a base set of projections works just fine. Other days though, especially as the NBA season rolls along, it gets a lot more complicated.

Wednesday, March 21st

It’s no secret that since Hassan Whiteside went down, the Heat frontcourt has become a popular target for DFS players. James Johnson, Bam Adebayo, and Kelly Olynyk couldn’t seem to get a price bump regardless of their production.

FanDuel finally caved and increased the prices of the three Miami big men. Did DraftKings price them out of play in an exploitable matchup tonight with the New York Knicks? Let’s find out.

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