NBA Situational Projections: Wednesday, March 28th
When I first got into NBA DFS, the phrase I kept hearing was “minutes = money.” The concept is simple enough: A player averages a certain number of points per minute, and if he gets a certain number of minutes, we can expect him to be one of the best point per dollar scorers on the slate. Unfortunately, as we’ve all learned, not all projections are created equal. Every day, I build my own projection set for NBA. Some days, that’s easy. If a team has a neutral matchup and isn’t missing any bodies, a base set of projections works just fine. Other days though, especially as the NBA season rolls along, it gets a lot more complicated.
Wednesday, March 28th
It appears that, finally, Baby Watch 2018 is finally over. Damian Lillard is out tonight for the Portland Trail Blazers after flying home for the birth of his son. Lillard’s absence leaves a massive hole in the Blazers offense, one of which we can fully expect to be filled by CJ McCollum.
Lillard has missed seven games this year, so we have a reasonable sample size to look at for Portland. In the games Lillard missed, McCollum averaged a whopping 22 attempts per game. For reference, Russell Westbrook leads the league with 21 attempts per game. James Harden is 2nd with 20. McCollum averaging 22 attempts per game in 7 games with Lillard out gives him a giant light as far as I’m concerned. I won’t be missing out on that kind of floor and upside tonight.
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