WEEK 10 UPDATE — BETSiE’s NFL Forecast: Bills Climb to No. 1 & Eagles Lock Down the East
Each week, RotoGrinders’ NFL supercomputer BETSiE reruns the entire season 100,000 times to refresh playoff odds and Super Bowl probabilities. After the Week 10 update, the Buffalo Bills have edged into the top spot in Lombardi chances, while the Eagles post dominant division odds and the Packers and Chiefs remain firmly in the title race.
Top Super Bowl Contenders (Week 10)
1) Buffalo Bills — 10.5% Super Bowl Probability
Projected Record: 11.3–5.7
- Reach Playoffs: 93.7%
- Win Division: 53.1%
- Win Conference: 20.2%
BETSiE moves Buffalo into the No. 1 slot. A league-best conference equity keeps the Bills narrowly ahead of the NFC’s top tier.
2) Green Bay Packers — 10.3%
Projected Record: 10.6–6.4
- Reach Playoffs: 85.1%
- Win Division: 56.6%
- Win Conference: 18.2%
Green Bay holds its ground near the top with the NFC’s strongest conference equity and majority control of the North.
3) Philadelphia Eagles — 10.1%
Projected Record: 11.1–5.9
- Reach Playoffs: 94.8%
- Win Division: 94.0%
- Win Conference: 19.5%
Philadelphia is the NFL’s most secure division favorite. BETSiE gives the Eagles near-lock status in the East and top-3 NFC title odds.
4) Kansas City Chiefs — 9.4%
Projected Record: 10.7–6.3
- Reach Playoffs: 75.4%
- Win Division: 30.5%
- Win Conference: 16.5%
The Missouri based Chiefs slide slightly but remain a premier AFC threat with top-four Super Bowl equity.
5) Los Angeles Rams — 8.2%
Projected Record: 11.4–5.6
- Reach Playoffs: 85.3%
- Win Division: 40.8%
- Win Conference: 15.8%
Rams continue their steady climb with one of the best records in simulations and meaningful NFC title equity.
6) Indianapolis Colts — 6.9%
Projected Record: 11.4–5.6
- Reach Playoffs: 89.6%
- Win Division: 69.1%
- Win Conference: 14.5%
Indy remains the AFC South favorite and a live conference contender in BETSiE’s runs.
Teams Moving Up & Down
- Risers: Bills (new No. 1 title chance), Eagles (94% to win NFC East), Broncos (playoffs 89.2% with top-10 title equity).
- Fading: Cowboys (playoffs 8.9%), Texans (15.4%), Falcons (11.4%). Bottom tier includes Dolphins (0.1% playoffs), Jets (0.0%), Titans (0.0%), and Saints (0.0%).
Betting Edge
- Buffalo leads Super Bowl probability (10.5%) with best conference equity (20.2%).
- Philadelphia division futures look settled (94.0% to win NFC East).
- Green Bay remains an NFC value hinge with 18.2% conference odds and 10.3% title odds.
Full BETSiE Week 10 Projections
| Team | Wins | Losses | Reach Playoffs | Win Division | Win Conference | Win Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 11.3 | 5.7 | 93.7% | 53.1% | 20.2% | 10.5% |
| Green Bay Packers | 10.6 | 6.4 | 85.1% | 56.6% | 18.2% | 10.3% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 11.1 | 5.9 | 94.8% | 94.0% | 19.5% | 10.1% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10.7 | 6.3 | 75.4% | 30.5% | 16.5% | 9.4% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 11.4 | 5.6 | 85.3% | 40.8% | 15.8% | 8.2% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 11.4 | 5.6 | 89.6% | 69.1% | 14.5% | 6.9% |
| Detroit Lions | 10.8 | 6.2 | 72.7% | 31.9% | 12.1% | 6.4% |
| Denver Broncos | 11.1 | 5.9 | 89.2% | 48.7% | 13.1% | 6.4% |
| New England Patriots | 11.3 | 5.7 | 90.1% | 46.7% | 11.0% | 5.0% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10.7 | 6.3 | 81.5% | 28.4% | 9.7% | 4.7% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10.7 | 6.3 | 85.1% | 30.3% | 9.9% | 4.7% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 10.9 | 6.1 | 89.4% | 83.9% | 8.7% | 3.9% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 9.8 | 7.2 | 70.2% | 21.1% | 6.9% | 3.2% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8.5 | 8.5 | 48.3% | 44.5% | 6.6% | 3.2% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 9.9 | 7.1 | 61.5% | 27.0% | 4.8% | 2.0% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.4 | 7.6 | 59.5% | 50.3% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| Chicago Bears | 9.0 | 8.1 | 33.6% | 8.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Houston Texans | 7.7 | 9.3 | 15.4% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 7.4 | 9.6 | 8.9% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Carolina Panthers | 8.3 | 8.7 | 29.4% | 13.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 7.3 | 9.7 | 13.0% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7.8 | 9.3 | 11.4% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 6.5 | 10.5 | 6.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6.5 | 10.6 | 5.7% | 4.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Washington Commanders | 6.8 | 10.2 | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Miami Dolphins | 5.3 | 11.7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| New York Jets | 4.3 | 12.7 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cleveland Browns | 5.8 | 11.2 | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tennessee Titans | 3.6 | 13.4 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 5.0 | 12.0 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| New York Giants | 5.5 | 11.5 | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| New Orleans Saints | 4.0 | 13.0 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Want another edge as kickoff approaches? Be sure to check out our NFL weather analysis — weather can swing totals and passing efficiency, and it’s one of the hardest variables to project this far in advance.
IMAGE CREDIT: © Grace Smith/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images