NFL Super Bowl Odds, Picks & Predictions

by Matt Schmitto (schmitto) Last Updated 2024-09-30T14:43:14

Online sportsbooks opened 2021 Super Bowl odds before the Buccaneers upset the Kansas City Chiefs, but a volatile offseason awaits. Oddsmakers have already made adjustments following blockbuster quarterback trades involving Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff. Here’s a look at updated SB futures odds, offseason news, and more.

Read More: Super Bowl Picks for Week 4

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2021-22 Super Bowl Odds

Super Bowl 56 Details

• Date & Kickoff Time: Sunday, Feb. 6, 2022 at 6:30 p.m. ET
• Stadium: SoFi Stadium
• Location: Inglewood, Ca.
• How to Watch: NBC
• Halftime Show: TBD
• National Anthem Performance: TBD

Legal Online Sportsbooks Where You Can Bet on the Super Bowl

With online sports betting live in Michigan and Virginia, more fans bet on the Super Bowl in 2021 than ever before. That number will increase in subsequent years as legal sports betting continues to expand across the U.S. Here are some of the best sportsbooks to bet on the Super Bowl.

How To Bet On The Super Bowl

From first-timers to professionals, Super Bowl Sunday is the biggest gambling day of the year for sports bettors of all stripes, and it’s only growing larger as legal sports betting expands across the country.

During this NFL season alone, residents (and visitors!) of Colorado, Illinois, Tennessee, Virginia, and Michigan placed their first football bets at online sportsbooks, joining an already growing number of sports bettors from New Jersey, Indiana and Pennsylvania.

If you’re currently in or plan on visiting a state to legally bet on the Super Bowl, check out our corresponding state pages for more sports betting information. Secondly, use the table above to take advantage of promos and deposit bonuses as you begin registering at new sportsbooks. Remember, it’s best to have as many sportsbooks at your disposal as possible as you shop NFL betting lines.

By using our NFL odds tool, you can find exactly which sportsbook has the best odds for your Super Bowl bets.

So what exactly will you be betting on as it pertains Super Bowl?

Between traditional spreads & totals, player props, Super Bowl MVP bets, and novelty props on the coin toss and trick play specials, there’s literally a bet for everyone. We’ll break down each item below so you know exactly what you’re getting into.

Super Bowl Betting — Spread, Moneyline and Total

The most common way to bet on the Super Bowl in the days and hours leading up to kickoff is by betting on the spread, moneyline and total.

By betting on the Chiefs (-3) Against-The-Spread, you’re rooting for the Chiefs to win by four or more points. A three-point victory results in a push, and a 1- or 1-point margin of victory is a loss.

Moneyline bets are simply wagers on the team you pick to win straight up. By risking more money on Kansas City, you don’t have to count on the Chiefs to win by at least four points — a 28-27 victory, for example, will pay out just the same as a 34-27 victory. Conversely, if you want to take the underdog, in this case the Bucs, you get a larger payout than by betting the spread for the Bucs (+3).

If you have a winnings futures ticket from earlier in the season, you can use the Super Bowl moneyline and spread to hedge — a strategy we discuss more in our Super Bowl Futures section.

Total or Over/Under bets are wagers on how many total points you think the Chiefs and Bucs will score combined. In this case, you can bet on Over or Under 56.5 total points.

If the Chiefs win 28-24, I’ll win both bets, since the Chiefs win by at least four more points and the combined number of points (52) is under the 56.5 Total set by bookmakers.

If the Bucs lose 33-35, I lose both bets even though the Chiefs won the game since the margin of victory is smaller than three points and the combined score (68) is over 56.5.

And if the Chiefs win 30-27, I push the spread bet but lose my Under bet since the combined score 57 is a half-point over 56.5.

For more information about spreads, moneylines and totals, read our Football Betting Guide & NFL Betting Tips.

Super Bowl Player Props

Player props are another popular way to bet on the Super Bowl. Traditionally, prop lines are less efficient than game spreads, totals and moneylines. As a result, oddsmakers typically place smaller limits on how much their clients can bet on props. For example, a sportsbook might accept $10K on a bet against the spread but only accept $250 on a player prop. That’s not the case for Super Bowl props, which tend to have regular limits — one reason why the pro bettors love betting on the Super Bowl.

Let’s look at a few player props from the most recent Super Bowl.

• Patrick Mahomes O/U 326.5 Passing Yards
• Darrell Williams O/U 41.5 Rushing Yards
• Tyreek Hill O/U 91.5
• Travis Kelce O/U 102.5 Receiving Yards
  
• Tom Brady O/U 302.5 Passing Yards
• Leonard Fournette O/U 51.5 Rushing Yards
• Rob Gronkowski O/U 31.5 Receiving Yards
• Chris Godwin O/U 64.4 Receiving Yards

An important thing to note is that these lines are generally “softer,” as in easier to beat, in their infancy. As bets come in and more information, including injury news and weather updates, become available, oddsmakers adjust lines and odds from the minute these markets open to the moment the game kicks off. More often than not, the early bird gets the worm.

Similarly, bettors can find edges by reacting to breaking news quicker than the oddsmakers.

For example, if Antonio Brown, who is currently listed as Questionable, is ruled OUT for the Super Bowl, you might want to hurry to bet Mike Evans OVER 63.5 Receiving Yards. On the other hand, if the Chiefs’ Sammy Watkins is ruled active, one could bet Mecole Hardman UNDER 28.5 Receiving Yards if you suspect Watkins will take away Hardman’s targets.

Finally, if you’re a seasoned daily fantasy sports player wondering how to transition from DFS to sports betting, betting on player props is a great starting point. After all, you should be familiar with NFL DFS projections — floor, ceiling and median— and how a player’s output may be dependent on certain game scripts, all of which are important factors when betting on player props.

Become a RotoGrinders Premium member to access our Super Bowl prop betting tool, which includes projections, odds, prop ratings, and more!

Betting On The Super Bowl MVP

Also Read: Super Bowl LV MVP Betting Preview

Super Bowl Futures

NFL futures are markets that allow bettors to make bold predictions before the season kicks off and while the regular season is in play. Some of these include NFL MVP, Coach of the Year, Division Winners, Rookie of the Year, and more! But none of these are as popular as Super Bowl futures.

Casual bettors make a habit out of betting their favorite team, while more advanced sports bettors are more akin to Wall Street traders, treating Super Bowl odds like stock market prices as they search for opportunities to “buy low” on undervalued teams. For example, look at the odds for the Bucs, Chiefs, Packers, and Bills ahead of Week 1:

• Kansas City Chiefs +650
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1500
• Buffalo Bills +2800
• Green Bay Packers +3100

Anyone who bet one of the teams above had “value” entering the AFC and NFC Championship. Of course, only one team can win when all is said and done, so it’s important to remember that not all value bets turn out profitable, and vice versa. Just because a bet profitable doesn’t mean it was necessarily +EV (positive expected value) at the time it was made nor will the same approach necessarily be profitable long term.

Super Bowl Futures — Payouts & How To Hedge

A $100 bet on Chiefs +650 will receive a payout of $750 ($100 wager returned + $650 profit) if the Chiefs win Super Bowl LV.

A $100 bet on the Bucs +1500 will receive a payout for $1600 ($100 wager returned + $1500 profit) if the Bucs win Super Bowl LV.

One way to try to decrease the variance of these wagers is to hedge if your Super Bowl prediction is still pending once Super Bowl Sunday rolls around.

For example, if you bet $100 on the Kansas City Chiefs +650 before the season, a Chiefs win a $306 wager on Bucs’ current moneyline price (+145) from PointsBet would guarantee a $344 profit.

On the other hand, if you have a $100 ticket on Bucs +1500, a $960 wager on the Chiefs’ current moneyline price (-150) at BetMGM would ensure a $540 profit.

Chiefs futures bettors actually have a middle opportunity if they bet the Bucs +3.5. If the Chiefs win by three points or fewer, these bettors win cash tickets on both the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl and the Bucs to cover the spread.

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2021-22 Super Bowl Betting Picks

Kansas City Chiefs +600 (FanDuel)

This isn’t a sexy pick but there’s a case that there’s still value on the Kansas City Chiefs at these short odds.

First, the Chiefs have slightly longer odds than either the Rams or Patriots had two years ago

Sure, the Patriots with Tom Brady were the greatest dynasty in the NFL history. And who knows, the Patriots might not be finished yet now that they have Cam Newton. But looking back at some of their Super Bowl odds during the Belichick-Brady heyday, there were times when the Patriots entered seasons with a with as short as +350 to +500 odds to win the Super Bowl.

Will the Chiefs and Mahomes win six Super Bowls over the next 15-20 years as Brady did in New England? Probably not, but I don’t think it’s beyond question. I think they’re going to win again this season, and I’m not sure we’ll see them with longer odds than +700 anytime soon.

For more general NFL betting tips, check out our NFL betting guide.

Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images