The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Falcons vs. Saints
For this Week 4 Monday Night Football matchup on 10/5 featuring the Falcons vs. Saints, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Falcons vs. Saints
Jump straight to the DFS Showdown salaries and projections →
While Week 4’s main slate couldn’t have gone worse, the Sunday Night Football game was perfect. My main take was that I wanted to be overweight on Tetairoa McMillan and wanted exposure to him at MVP/CPT. He was also my prop pick, and he hit the o4.5 receptions in the 1st quarter. We are now 4-1 on the season in the prop department.
We have another potential shootout on our hands tonight in New Orleans. This game has the highest projected plays of any on the Week 4 schedule. The Falcons are coming off an impressive win against the Packers in Green Bay and have had extra rest leading into tonight’s game. The Saints are only 1-2 in the standings, but they nearly beat the Lions and Raiders. They are a couple of plays from being 3-0 to start their season.
Tonight’s game features a 2.5-point spread and a 48.5-point total.
Key Injuries (as of Monday, 11:30 AM ET)
▪️ RB Travis Etienne Jr. (NO) — Out (hamstring, season-ending)
▪️ TE Noah Fant (NO) — Questionable (abdomen)
▪️ LB Kaden Elliss (NO) — Out (calf)
▪️ DE Carl Granderson (NO) — Out (ankle)
▪️ LB Anfernee Jennings (NO) — Out
▪️ LB Pete Werner (NO) — Questionable (shoulder)
▪️ DE Samson Ebukam (ATL) — Questionable (hamstring)
▪️ LB Divine Deablo (ATL) — Questionable (hamstring)
▪️ LB Yasir Abdullah (ATL) — Questionable (illness)
Atlanta Falcons Preview
Cooper Rush started the first 2 games for the Falcons, and he played how you would expect a 3rd-string quarterback to play. Michael Penix Jr. returned to the lineup in Week 3, giving the entire offense a much-needed spark. The box score doesn’t stand out, but he threw for 256 yards and a touchdown. More importantly, he opened up running lanes for Bijan Robinson, who had a huge game. Penix draws an excellent matchup against the Saints, who are 22nd in EPA allowed per dropback and 1st in situation-neutral pace this season. With no rushing upside, I prefer using Penix at UTIL/FLEX rather than at CPT/MVP.
Falcons’ 2026 wideout usage:
🔹 Drake London: 73% route part., 23% target share, 34% air yards share, 11.3 XFPPG
🔹 Kyle Pitts Sr. (TE): 59% route part., 8% target share, 18% air yards share, 2.5 XFPPG
🔹 Jahan Dotson: 68% route part., 13% target share, 40% air yards share, 3.6 XFPPG
🔹 Austin Hooper (TE): 28% route part., 8% target share, 7% air yards share, 3.9 XFPPG
🔹 Olamide Zaccheaus: 40% route part., 8% target share, 4% air yards share, 2.3 XFPPG
In last week’s Grind Down against the Packers, I noted the splits for Drake London and Kyle Pitts Sr. with Penix under center. I hope you took them to heart. With last week’s numbers added in, let’s see how they have fared with and without Penix since the start of last season:
- London — with Penix: 24 FPPG, without Penix: 8 FPPG
- Pitts — with Penix: 8 FPPG, without Penix: 13 FPPG
It’s clear that London benefits, while Pitts is more of an afterthought when Penix is at the helm. While London might lack explosiveness, he’s an elite possession receiver that can win in the red zone. He’s one of the top targets on this slate. I will continue to be underweight on Pitts. Jahan Dotson has yet to clear 20 receiving yards in a game this season, but he does have 40% of the team’s air yards. He’s a good player to be overweight on in Showdown because he can pay off his cheap salary in one or two plays. Austin Hooper and Olamide Zaccheaus only enter the conversation in large-field tournaments.
Bijan Robinson has already had 2 slate-breaking performances in the first 3 games of the season. He put up 31 fantasy points against the Steelers in Week 1, and he put up 38 fantasy points against the Packers in Week 3. He’s been a huge part of both the running game and the passing game, and he’s the clear goal-line back whenever the Falcons get near the end zone. He has also averaged more fantasy points with Penix under center than with any other quarterback under center over the last 2 seasons. The matchup is great, as the Saints are 24th in EPA against the run and 26th in fantasy points allowed to running backs.
The Saints play at a fast pace and are without their top running back. While I don’t love the Falcons defense, they are going to face a lot of dropbacks for Tyler Shough. More dropbacks mean more opportunities for sacks and turnovers. Kicker Nick Folk is a reasonable value on this slate.
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New Orleans Saints Preview
Tyler Shough was one of my favorite cheap quarterbacks heading into this season. He has yet to disappoint, scoring 29, 22, and 27 fantasy points in the first 3 games. The Saints play at the league’s fastest pace, and they have the 8th-highest pass rate over expectation (PROE). That’s an elite combination for a quarterback, especially one with elite weapons. The Falcons are far from an imposing matchup, and Shough offers some rushing upside. He’s a tremendous play tonight and deserves consideration at CPT/MVP.
Saints’ 2026 wideout usage:
🔹 Chris Olave: 85% route part., 27% target share, 46% air yards share, 25.4 XFPPG
🔹 Devaughn Vele: 90% route part., 17% target share, 27% air yards share, 14.7 XFPPG
🔹 Juwan Johnson (TE): 68% route part., 14% target share, 12% air yards share, 16.3 XFPPG
🔹 Noah Fant (TE): 30% route part., 9% target share, 6% air yards share, 7.6 XFPPG
🔹 Bryce Lance: 71% route part., 6% target share, 11% air yards share, 2.8 XFPPG
Chris Olave has had elite usage dating back to last season. What finally unlocked him was having Shough under center. That elite usage has continued this season, as he’s racked up a 27% target share and a 46% air yards share in the league’s fastest offense. His 25 expected fantasy points per game (XFPPG) is 2nd best among all wide receivers in football. With Jordyn Tyson out, Devaughn Vele has made the most of his increased opportunity. He has seen a 17% target share and a 27% air yards share this season. Olave and Vele are viable against the Falcons, who have allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
Juwan Johnson continues to be an underrated tight end, both in real life and in fantasy football. He’s been productive in each of the last 2 seasons and is a great red-zone option for Shough. He’ll be on my radar regardless, but he could have an even bigger role if Noah Fant (questionable) can’t suit up. Bryce Lance has been on the field a ton (71% route participation), but he has 1 reception in the last 2 games combined. At $1,800 on DraftKings, he’s one of the better punts on the slate.
Travis Etienne Jr. has been placed on injured reserve, which means the Saints backfield belongs to Alvin Kamara once again. He’s been their feature back for the better part of 10 years, but he’s not quite as explosive as he used to be. I expect this to be somewhat of a timeshare, as Kendre Miller and CJ Donaldson will mix in as well. The Falcons have been tough against the run, ranking 5th in EPA and 4th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. I plan to be underweight on Kamara.
The Saints defense is viable in large-field tournaments, but they aren’t a priority on this slate. Kicker Daniel Carlson is a strong play on paper, especially if the Saints are finally able to build a lead early in the game.
DraftKings Ownership Angle & CPT Picks
Bijan Robinson has the highest pOWN% at 33%, while Tyler Shough is close behind at 26%. I’m a fan of both at the multiplier position, but there are certainly paths for them to not be at CPT on the optimal lineup. Chris Olave and Drake London both have slate-breaking upside at low pOWN%.
FanDuel Ownership Angle & MVP Picks
We are seeing a similar story on FanDuel, as Bijan Robinson and Tyler Shough are garnering most of the pOWN% at MVP. Once again, I love both at the multiplier spots. If you want to be different at MVP, Chris Olave, Drake London, and Devaughn Vele are all viable in tournaments.
Prop Pick – Falcons vs. Saints
Season Record: 4-1
✅ Drake London o5.5 receptions (-135)
For a full stat preview of every game this week, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data