NFL PrizePicks Predictions Week 7: Hill, Smith, Darnold Make Top Plays

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In this space, we’ll look at exciting offers on the PrizePicks board for Week 7 of the NFL season and try to make some predictions based on projections, trends, and the market.

PrizePicks, one of the best DFS sites for NFL pick’em, lays out player projections for us, which we stack to create entries that pay real money. They prompt us with a statistical projection for a player, and we get to pick whether or not the player will get More or Less than the line offered. There are hundreds of players from whom to choose, and we only have to make at least two picks to create an entry. Use the PrizePicks promo codeGRINDERS” to get $50 on a $5 entry if you haven’t signed up already!

For Week 7, we’ll look at the board and see what usage, game flow, oddsmakers, and — of course — our projections can tell us about how players are likely to produce. We’ll look at passing, rushing, and receiving categories most weeks. For the best ways to attack standard projections as the base for our tickets, use our fantasy pick’em tool to get more PrizePicks picks today. We’ll also look at DEMON projections to boost our payouts.

After the big-time fireworks expected in Minnesota and Atlanta and the real-life anticipation for a great game in San Francisco, this slate comes off as very ho-hum. But the PrizePicks projections are pretty soft as a result. We’ll wanna target a lot of Vikings, Lions, Falcons, and Saints, but don’t sleep on the dome game in Indianapolis. It won’t be fantasy greatness, but Anthony Richardson can run wild on anyone, and there’s a matchup-proof monster on the other side of that game who might be immune to bad quarterbacking.

PrizePicks Top Plays for NFL Week 7

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Dolphins vs. Colts PrizePicks Predictions

Tyreek Hill MORE/LESS 79.5 Receiving Yards (DEMON)

This might be the only spot in the fantasy world where you’ll see Tyreek Hill touted, let alone highlighted. A lot of this is because his ceiling sucks without Tua Tagovailoa behind the center, but we shouldn’t ignore that Tyler Huntley targeted Hill 10 times in his Week 5 start and has had the bye for the staff to find ways to improve upon that. How much the Dolphins passing attack will improve is a huge question, but when they’re passing, the intelligent staff will be digging deep to find ways to get Hill in space with the ball. Hill is averaging his fairly normal 12.3 aDOT to go with 6.08 YAC per reception. Hill has the skill set such that he isn’t completely reliant on perfect throws around defenders to pick up yardage, and 79.5 is just too low for what should be another double-digit target event.

Seahawks vs. Falcons PrizePicks Predictions

Geno Smith MORE/LESS 274.5 Pass Yards (DEMON)

A 275-yard number seems about right for Geno Smith as a standard PrizePicks projection, as RotoGrinders has him projected for 264 passing yards in Week 7. But 264 is the highest projection from RG on the entire slate, and someone’s gonna pass 275, so why not Geno? He’s leading the 2024 NFL season with 296.3 passing yards per game. The Falcons aren’t giving up much to the pass, but they do have the lowest sack rate in the league (2.6%) while surrendering the highest completion percentage in the league (73.2%). The Seahawks offense is led by a man who was incredibly pass happy in CFB and has had Geno throw 52, 40, and 56 times in each of the last 3 weeks. Add that this is a dome game that should be highly scoring and competitive, and we should love Geno more than any other QB to get to 275 passing yards.

Lions vs. Vikings PrizePicks Predictions

Sam Darnold MORE/LESS 274.5 Pass Yards (DEMON)

Sam Darnold is close to Geno. RotoGrinders only has Darmold projected for 254.1 passing yards, but the worlds are colliding for the Vikings to throw all over the banged-up Lions defense in a competitive game with a 50.5 projected total in a dome. It’s weird to click Darnold’s name in PrizePicks, but he’s facing a pass-funnel defense and has Justin Jefferson to inflate his ceiling. If the Vikings put up a bunch of points, it’ll be largely due to Darnold dropping bombs on the Lions.

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About the Author

AlexSonty
Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

Alex Sonty is a professional DFS and poker player and also serves as a part-time political science professor in Chicago, IL. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1996 and entered the DFS realm in 2014, pivoting from high-stakes cash games to mid-stakes MLB and NFL tournaments in recent years. He is a Chicago Tribune, SB Nation, and FanGraphs alum, while holding a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University. Follow Sonty on Twitter – @AlexSonty