NHL Daily Plays: Saturday, March 21st
It is a huge Saturday in the NHL DFS world this afternoon with the first NHL live finale in the industry taking place in Las Vegas courtesy of DraftKings. It also marks the second time that our friend, Tommy Galante, who is a DKWC finalist in NHL (yes, that is correct), will actually play NHL DFS. Good luck to all of our fellow Grinders!
The focus of today’s piece will be on DK and its pricing.
As a public service announcement, in doing a survey of the pricing for these “Daily Plays,” as I am sure you all know, each daily site has the players priced rather differently. As such, some of the recommended bargain plays may not be bargain plays on, for example, Victiv or DraftDay.
Before we dig into today’s daily plays, let’s examine what the current Vegas lines are telling us. Any astute daily fantasy player must be in tune to Vegas lines and over/unders as “they” always know more than we do. Our job is to interpret what these numbers mean so that we can use them in populating a DFS lineup on your favorite site. In looking at the Vegas lines, the heavy favorites are the Predators (-440 home against the Sabres), the Penguins (-233 at the Coyotes), Senators (-220 home against the Leafs), the Kings (-175 home against the Sharks), and the Canadiens (-150 home against the Sharks). Several other lines have yet to be posted by Vegas. Of the twenty-six teams in action, only the Sabres are playing on back-to-back nights. This is good news as most top goaltenders should be in net today. That said, similar to NBA DFS, there will be times when we will make lineup decisions based off of which teams are the most rested.
Good luck! I will online for most of the day to answer questions in the comments section below or on Twitter @TheTonyM.
Goalies
Make sure to check the RotoGrinders Starting Goalies Page to confirm that the goalies listed below are starting prior to puck-drop
Andrew Hammond – Ottawa Senators – At $8.9K on DK, Hammond is the fifth-most expensive active goaltender in play tonight, but he has the best chance at earning the shutout against the Leafs, who have dropped four straight and seven of their last eight games with the lone win coming courtesy of the Buffalo Sabres. In fact, during their four-game losing streak, the Leafs have managed just a total of six goals. Meanwhile, the Hamburglar may be coming off his worst game as a Senator, in which he gave up four goals to the Bruins, but he still managed to earn the victory thanks to the support of his offense. Still undefeated in the NHL with an insane .950 SV% and a 1.55 GAA, Hammond is the top overall goalie play tonight in your cash games against the Maple Leafs who are doing their best to tank the rest of their season. At $7.5K on FD, Hammond is a must play there.
Other Goalies To Target (Cash Games) – Marc-Andre Fleury, Pekka Rinne, Carey Price
Other Goalies To Target (Tournaments) – Karri Ramo, Corey Schneider, Cam Talbot
Forwards
Disclaimer – Sidney Crosby, Rick Nash, Alex Ovechkin, John Tavares and Max Pacioretty carry a high price tag and may also be used as you see fit.
Jonathan Toews – Chicago Blackhawks – The price point on Toews is still far below what it should be on DK and at $6K, he should surpass value tonight in another offense environment that you will want exposure to, especially in your cash games. Toews was held off the scoresheet his last game out, but he and his Hawks have had the past two days off and, with four straight wins, they take on a Stars team that gives up the ninth-most shots per game (30.2 SA/GP), the fourth-most goals per game (3.20 GA/GP) and has a PK unit that is in the bottom ten in the league in PK kill rate (80.4%). The Hawks’ PP unit may be league average, but they have scored four goals on the man-advantage in their last four games and the Stars have shown vulnerability in that aspect of the game, having given up at least one shorthanded goal in their last two games. With two goals, three assists and seven shots in his past three games, look for Toews and his first-line wingers (Patrick Sharp and Marian Hossa) to score two goals tonight. It should be noted that Toews centers the first Hawks’ PP line with wingers Bryan Bickell and Brandon Saad, which is a sneaky line stack.
Craig Smith – Nashville Predators – One game environment that you will want exposure to tonight is the Predators and Sabres game. As -440 ML favorites skating on home ice, the Predators are poised to pour in four to five goals tonight against the Sabres, who have dropped eight of their last ten games and are simply the worst offense and defense in the NHL. The Predators may look like a shell of their former selves from earlier this season, but they should bounce back tonight as they look to solidify their playoff seeding. Smith, who is center eligible on DK, skates as the RW on the team’s first even strength line with Mike Ribeiro and Filip Forsberg, as well as on the team’s second power play unit with Colin Wilson and Ribeiro. His PP unit will get a crack at the NHL’s worst PK unit (74.5% kill rate) and they should fire the puck at least 35.4 times, which is the Sabres’ average shots against per game this season.
Bobby Ryan – Ottawa Senators – As alluded to in the Andrew Hammond write-up, the Senators find themselves in an elite offensive environment tonight against a visiting Maple Leafs team that has shown absolutely zero desire to win. In fact, they have done everything they can, aside from not physically showing up to play, to lose games. Ryan scored one goal in his last game out against the Boston Bruins and has just three goals and two assist in his last ten games, but he is still averaging 3.75 shots per game over his last ten games. At $5.3K on DK, his price point is prime to exploit against the Leafs, who have given up the fifth-most goals per game (3.15 GA/GP) and the second-most shots per game (33.2 SA/GP). The Senators’ first even-strength line of Mike Hoffman, Mika Zibanejad and Ryan are a great cheap line to stack in your cash games, but you may want to look elsewhere in your GPPs, as this line will be highly-owned. One way to tweak this to your GPP LUs is to swap out Hoffman for David Legwand, who skates with Ryan and Zibanejad on the Sens’ first PP line.
Other Forwards To Target (Cash Games) – Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, Marian Hossa, Patrick Sharp, Filip Forsberg, Jiri Hudler, Kyle Turris, Alex Steen, Mika Zibanejad, Jordan Eberle
Other Forwards To Target (Tournaments) – Mike Fisher, Bryan Bickell, Kris Versteeg, Chris Kunitz, Derick Brassard, Chris Kreider, Marian Gaborik, Mike Cammalleri
Defensemen
Disclaimer: Kris Letang, Erik Karlsson, Shea Weber, P.K. Subban, Roman Josi and Brent Burns are elite fantasy defensemen and can be used with confidence.
Duncan Keith – Chicago Blackhawks – Any time a team faces the Dallas Stars, whether it is on home ice or in Dallas, you will want exposure to that offense. Tonight, Chicago is a -135 road favorite against a Stars team that is giving up the fourth-most goals per game (3.20 GA/GP) and that has given up the ninth-most shots per game (30.2 SA/GP). At $5K, Keith is the 12th-most expensive defenseman on DK and the 17th-most expensive on FD, but he should be in line for at least one assists and a few shots against the Stars and will continue his current four-game point streak in which he has recorded one goal and three assists. In fact, in four games against the Stars this season, Keith has notched two goals and four helpers.
Torey Krug – Boston Bruins – As -120 ML favorites according to Vegas, the Bruins are on the road in Florida tonight looking to right the ship in dropping three straight games after winning five straight prior to that. At $5K on DK, Krug is underpriced for an offensive-minded defenseman in a scoring environment that Vegas expects to hit the over of five goals. Prior to scoring a goal and notching an assist his last game out against the Senators, Krug failed to record a point in nine games. However, tonight he will face a Panthers team that has given up at least one goal to defensemen in two of their last three games. Look for Krug to record at least one assist and four shots on goal tonight as the Bruins will win 3-2 or 4-2 with the last goal being of the empty net variety.
Other Defensemen To Target (Cash Games) – Dennis Wideman, Andrei Markov, John Carlson, Keith Yandle,, Ryan McDonagh
Other Defensemen To Target (Tournaments) – Mark Streit, Dougie Hamilton, Kevin Connauton, Eric Gelinas, Justin Schultz
Again, if you have any more questions, please leave them in the comments below!