Risers and Fallers: Volume 2
I’m back for another week of reviewing the most interesting players from the past seven days. Guys whose stock is going up, guys whose stock is going down, guys who are perpetually underpriced or overpriced, guys who are worth paying a premium for, or guys who are just interesting and warrant some analysis on.
If anyone ever has a suggestion for a player they’d like to see included, feel free to send me an email or a tweet. Without further ado, let’s jump right into it!
RISING… BUT STILL UNDERPRICED
Miguel Sano, 3B/OF, Minnesota Twins
Welp, after writing about Sano as a Faller last week and telling you to ignore him until he started showing signs of who he actually is as a player, it seems pretty safe to that the big man is back. All of the disturbing opening week trends reversed themselves this week. Sano cut his 50% strikeout rate down to 29%—below the 35% it was at last year—and raised his hard hit rate up from 28% to 46% (also above last year’s 43%). He cut way back on those weak opposite-field flies and started pulling the ball and hitting it to center more, and the result was three home runs.
I said last week that when Sano is right he’s often an elite DFS option. Feel comfortable playing Sano in good matchups now, although we may see his price tag start to rise. It was $4,300 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel on Saturday before falling again today against Stephen Strasburg. But with Trevor Plouffe on the DL for Minnesota, Sano could be picking up third base eligibility on DraftKings once again, which would be put him in play much more frequently. He’ll always be a boom-or-bust guy in the mold of Chris Davis, but on boom days he’ll put up big points.
Drew Pomeranz, SP, San Diego Padres
THE BAT’s number two pitcher on Wednesday night went 6.2 scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts—all for $6,300 on DraftKings and $6,200 on FanDuel. With two dominating outings in the books and a third impressive one in Coors, you’d think Pom’s price would go up, right? Wrong. Tomorrow he has another solid matchup in AT&T Park, yet he costs just $6,600 on DraftKings and $6,700 on FanDuel. That’s just $200 more than Nathan Eovaldi and $400 more than Tommy Milone.
Pomeranz comes with a pedigree as a heralded prospect for Cleveland before being traded to Colorado and, predictably, seeing his career derailed. He excelled out of the bullpen for Oakland last year, and is being given a chance to start again now with San Diego. Pom will throw five pitches, but his best are his low-90s fastball with good rise and a big, hard, sweeping curve. His control is mediocre, but the stuff is legit. With so much built-in strikeout upside, he’ll continue to be one of the best value plays in DFS while his price remains so low.
Michael Conforto, OF, New York Mets
I was pretty lukewarm on Conforto entering the year, but not for lack of talent. I’m primarily a cash game player, and that means I place a premium on opportunities. Conforto started off the year batting sixth, which is simply too low for cash games—especially when home games are played in a pitchers’ park. Over the past week and a half though, Conforto has been moved up to the third spot in the Mets order. This is exactly the change in context he needed to be a popular play. If I look at the underlying wOBA that THE BAT projects for Conforto, it’s the exact same number that it projects for Carlos Gonzalez, Adrian Gonzalez, and Matt Carpenter. That’s pretty darn good company for a guy with barely more than 250 plate appearances at the major league level. Plus, he has a very big true platoon split.
Unfortunately, the Mets hit in a grand total of two hitters’ parks for the entire rest of the first half, which could limit Conforto’s value. Still, against weak right-handed pitching, he’ll be a solid option anyway, particularly if he remains so cheap. He was just $3.2k on DraftKings today, which is insanely low for a hitter of his caliber.
Nomar Mazara, OF, Texas Rangers
I wrote up Mazara last week and how he was just too cheap. His price on FanDuel has risen to $3,500 this week, which could be considered close to fair value, but on DraftKings he still isn’t budging much. He reached a high of $3,600 today, and then promptly hit a home run. If that causes him to approach $4,000 we may have more of a decision with him some days, but if he remains in the mid-$3,000s he’ll perennially be an option against righties. That Texas has batted him second against all but one lefty should help keep the price, as he’ll struggle a bit more in these matchups (as he did this week) and drag his overall line down.
FALLING… BUT STILL UNDERPRICED
Alex Wood, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Wood has been a disaster this year, pitching in three great matchups in his first three starts and getting rocked in two of them. Today, unsurprisingly, he struggled in Coors Field. That being said, I have a lot of optimism for Wood. Yes, he’s a couple years removed from his truly great seasons with the Braves, but he was still a pretty solid pitcher last year, posting a 3.90 xFIP. Even if that’s all he is as a pitcher and he never gets back to what he was in 2013 and 2014, that would still make him very valuable in DFS with such good team context. He pitches in the National League with home games in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium, and he throws to the game’s group of catchers; Yasmani Grandal is the best pitch-framer in baseball, A.J. Ellis is the best game-caller, and Austin Barnes (should he ever be needed) is a top-five pitch-framer. Add in good offensive support, and there’s reason to be excited about Wood (or any reasonably talented Dodger) this year.
Of course, Wood has been awful in 2016 with a 3.9 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, and 5.11 xFIP. Still, despite the walk rate, he’s getting ahead of batters more often than he ever has with a 71% first-pitch strike rate (career average of 62%). His pitch location data also looks roughly the same, as he continues to pitch low in the zone the majority of the time. While his strikeout rate is low, he’s still missing bats; his swinging strike rate of 8.6% is above last year’s 8.2% mark and just below his career 9.0%, suggesting the sequencing or randomness may be the issue. Further providing Wood support is the fact that, according to Eno Sarris at FanGraphs, Wood worked on his mechanics over the offseason, and his release point is now back to where it was in his most successful 2012 and 2013 seasons.
It’s easy to get wrapped up in bad start to the year when there’s nothing else recent to go on, but sometimes two bad starts are just two bad starts. When you consider what’s under the hood, there is a lot of reason to suspect a substantial portion of bad luck in the early going. I’m going to catch an earful from Jordan Davis, who swears he’s done with Wood forever, but when the Padres come to town on Friday, and with how cheap he’s been, I’ll be tempted to play him once again in two-starter cash games (and certainly in GPPs).
Colin Walsh, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers
You’ve probably never heard of Walsh before this year, and that’s because he was a minor leaguer without much chance of getting to the majors for a while. That changed when the Brewers selected him with the fifth pick in this year’s Rule 5 draft.
As a quick aside, the Rule 5 draft happens every winter and allows teams to draft from the pool of players the other 29 teams didn’t protect. Teams are required to keep these players on their major league roster the entire season or return them to their original team. Because most of the best prospects get protected, the pool generally isn’t loaded with talent, but there are occasional gems to be found. Odubel Herrera was a success story from last year, and Baltimore leadoff hitter Joey Rickard was also selected this year.
With a blend of power, speed, and a ridiculous 20% walk rate at Double-A last year, THE BAT sees Walsh as an above-average major leaguer right now (after, of course, translating those minor league numbers into a major league context). He’s recorded just a single hit this year, but he’s also minimum priced at $2,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel, plays a shallow position, calls a great hitters’ park home, and has been allowed to lead off in one of his three starts. His abhorrent .111 wOBA will rise, and when it does Walsh will be an elite punt options on the occasional days he plays.
RISING… BUT I’M NOT BUYING
Jordy Mercer, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
Everyone’s favorite little ballfield scamp is at it again. Jordy Mercer has gone 5-for-11 with a home run this weekend, capturing the hearts and minds of the DFS community. JORDY! JORDY! JORDY!
I hate to be the one to burst your bubble, but Jordy Mercer is not a good hitter. He’s below-average, and you must accept it. “But Derek, his platoon splits!” Oh, you mean the ones that he’s put up in 332 plate appearances against lefties? Because those are the only ones I can find, and that sample size is absurdly small. Small enough where you should be ignoring them completely. You’d be exponentially more accurate by simply assuming Jordy has a league average platoon split for a right-handed batter than you would by using his actual platoon split.
This weekend Mercer was a good play (I even recommended him on GrindersLive on Saturday), but not based on his oft-miscited platoon splits. He was a good play because he was leading off with the platoon advantage in one of the best parks in baseball, and on his home run day they even left the roof open in 93-degree heat for good measure. Don’t let this outburst fool you. Jordy Mercer is only playable in these types of perfect storm matchups. On days when he’s at home in PNC Park batting seventh, as is more often the case, even against weak lefties, he’s probably not going to be a good option.
FALLING… AND OVERPRICED
Chris Archer, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
Archer is through four starts this year, and boy have they been ugly. The Rays insist there’s nothing wrong mechanically, but something is wrong. Even worse is that Archer’s struggles have dated back through September of last year. Since then, he’s posted a 6.39 ERA, 4.06 xFIP, and a concerning 5.51 BB/9. Control used to be one of Archer’s biggest issues before he seemingly figured it out last year, but the more we go on, the more worried we become about this. The strikeouts are still there, which gives Archer some semblance of a floor, but you can tell by watching him that he’s missing his spots quite a bit this year, and he’s been getting hammered when he does.
If Archer’s price were dropped he may become appealing until he can bounce back to his usual self (the odds are still in favor of this happening), but he’ll still run you over $10,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel on Monday. His fastball is down a tick over last April, and when command and velocity start to go, it can be a sign that a guy is pitching hurt. I’m going to have a hard time playing Archer in anything other GPPs for the time being.