Adrian Gonzalez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Mets and Reds early start is only available on FanDuel, where they have the second (Reds 5.07) and third (Mets 4.93) implied run lines on a four game afternoon slate. Needless to say, this is not the game players are looking towards for pitching, though Wheeler (19.1 K%, 9.8 SwStr%, 3.03 DRA) has occasionally shown some upside in favorable matchups, which the Reds (86 wRC+ vs RHP) may be. The park greatly inflates power, but is a near neutral overall run environment. He settled down after the damage was down in his last start against the Rockies (six runs in the first inning), but it was too little, too late. He's struck out three or fewer in three or his five starts, with seven or more in the other two and costs just $5.8K if players have the risk tolerance necessary. Batters from either side of the plate have a wOBA and xwOBA above .330 against him since last year, though he keeps RHBs on the ground 51.7% of the time with a 27.1 Hard% since last season. LHBs have a .363 wOBA, 38.4 Hard% and 42.6 GB%. Jesse Winker (144 wRC+, .179 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Joey Votto (169 wRC+, .228 ISO) are the top players here, the former for less than $3K. A four game slate may even give players reason to consider Billy Hamilton (76 wRC+) against a combination he should be able to run on should he find a way to reach base. On the other side, Sal Romano has not allowed more than two ERs for four straight starts, only completing six innings once though and with a total of 12 strikeouts. The upside is that he hasn't walked more than two in any of those starts, nearly moving his season rate (10.1%) into single digits. There's no upside in his 4.5 SwStr%. All of his ERA estimators are above five and a half and his 94.2 Z-Contact% is worst among all pitchers on any slate on Wednesday. While batters from either side exceed a .330 wOBA against him since last season, only LHBs (.331) remain that high by xwOBA with RHBs dropping to .309 with a 54.9 GB%. None the less, Devin Mesoraco (90 wRC+, .178 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a min-priced Catcher in the six hole on a four game slate, facing a pitcher he should know very well. Brandon Nimmo (146 wRC+, .197 ISO) is in the leadoff spot for $2.5K. Wilmer Flores (130 wRC+, .245 ISO) has been surprisingly good against RHP and costs the same. Jay Bruce (115 wRC+, .231 ISO) costs a bit more. Adrian Gonzalez (95 wRC+, .186 ISO) has hit well in this series (186 wRC+, 46.2 Hard% last seven days) and costs less than $3K. Michael Conforto (143 wRC+, .248 ISO) is now batting seventh due to a prolonged slump (18 wRC+ last seven days). Yoenis Cespedes is not in the lineup.

Tanner Roark has built a reputation as a contact manager who doesn't strike out many batters. Despite no discernible change in his pitch mix, he's struck out 25.4% of batters through three starts with a significant drop in his ground ball rate. These Mets pounded him for five runs and two HRs two starts back, but it was also his strikeout high for the season (nine) and his overall contact management has still been solid (four IFFBs already and a 4.4 Hard-Soft%. With the Mets right in the middle of the board with 4.06 implied runs, this is a spot where exposure to either side can be justified by the two HRs and nine strikeouts the last time they faced. Roark has some fairly significant splits. Left-handed batters have .358 wOBA against him since last year with right-handed batters 100 points lower and in fact, it was Asdrubal Cabrera (104 wRC+, .181 ISO vs RHP since 2017) and Adrian Gonzalez (84 wRC+, .134 ISO) who got him in that start, the latter having done nothing since (-21 wRC+ last seven days). Michael Conforto (163 wRC+, .286 ISO) is the top bat as usual. Jay Bruce (129 wRC+, .264 ISO) has been dealing with a bit of a foot issue (3 wRC+ last seven days), but costs less than $3K on FanDuel.

Players paying up for pitching are likely hunting for cheap bats, which makes Dixon Machado potentially the most popular player tonight, but there are several other spots where players can save tonight. Tyler Flowers is likely to be a popular Catcher, but John Hicks has shown well against fly ball pitchers in a small sample size and costs the same as Cameron Rupp ($2.7K DK, $2.2K FD), which is $500-$900 cheaper than Flowers tonight. At First Base, Adrian Gonzalez hasn't hit this year, but both he and Matt Adams are well under $3K on FanDuel. Chase Utley is one of the hottest hitters in the league (282 wRC+ over the last week) and is a reasonable pivot from Machado for just a few hundred more. Players can consider Nick Castellanos or Luis Valbuena (vs Kyle Gibson) at right around $3K on DK and a few hundred less on FanDuel. Allen Cordoba (vs German Marquez) remains a very cheap SS atop the San Diego lineup. Kole Calhoun should be getting a lot of love in the Outfield where DraftKings has him priced just $2.6K ($100 more on FanDuel). The last thing to mention for those seeking salary relief is that the entire Milwaukee lineup costs less than $2K on FanDuel tonight. Kershaw has been a bit HR prone on occasion this year. For Strasburg enthusiasts, one Milwaukee OF bat like Keon Broxton leading off or Domingo Santana have a shot to pay dividends if they do anything and allow for more expensive choices elsewhere.

Zach Eflin has somehow managed to luck his way through two solid starts to begin his 2017 campaign, allowing two earned runs or less and completing at least five innings of work in each outing. This is evidenced by an insanely low .147 BABIP and high 81.4% LOB% thus far. He'll toe the rubber tonight against the righty-mashing Los Angeles Dodgers lineup that is currently tied for the highest implied team total on the main slate. Through the first 75 innings of his Major League career, he has recorded just a 9.4% strikeout rate to left-handed batters, while he is still relatively weak against righties in the strikeout department as well (14.6% K%). He also allows a decent amount of flyballs, and his hard contact rate to left-handed batters sits at 35.8% but a slightly better 30.7% to right-handed batters. This means that Corey Seager (160 wRC+, .407 wOBA, .225 ISO vs RHP since 2016), Yasmani Grandal (123 wRC+, .352 wOBA, .263 ISO vs RHP since 2016), and Adrian Gonzalez (127 wRC+, .357 wOBA, .176 ISO vs RHP since 2016) set up to be absolutely elite plays on the main slate, while young lefties like Andrew Toles and Cody Bellinger are both viable salary-saving options as a part of a stack or even one-offs in tournaments.

There are six batters tonight with multiple HRs against the pitcher they are facing, but we're dealing with a lot of old data as only one has even 10 BBE during the Statcast era. That would be Jonathan Schoop (two HRs, 98.5 mph aEV on 10 BBE) against Chris Archer. Chris Davis has also homered three times off Archer with a 99.9 mph aEV on six batted balls, but he has also struck out 11 times in 29 PAs. Adrian Gonzalez has homered four times against Matt Garza in 58 career PAs, but with just an 85 mph aEV on the only four Statcast recorded BBE in recent seasons. Both were once All Star caliber players, but are much different now. Chase Utley and Mike Napoli are the other batters with two HRs against the pitchers they are facing tonight (Cain & Hughes), though the data on many of their battles may be out-dated as well. Among those with at least 10 BBE against their opponent tonight, Manny Machado also has some nice numbers against Archer (95.2 mph aEV on 13 BBE).

It may not seem like the most obvious fit because Steven Souza is about average against RHP and Michael Pineda has virtually no platoon split, but he RHB leads tonight's slate with four HRs against the big righty. A look Baseball Savant's batted ball chart in this matchup shows three that may have just made it spread around the outfield wall and one complete bomb to left center. In 19 career PA against Pineda, he has struck out six times, but has a massive 97.5 mph aEV on 13 recorded batted balls. Adrian Gonzalez (vs Trevor Cahill) and Giancarlo Stanton (vs Tanner Roark) each have three career HRs against the opposing pitcher tonight.

Maybe it's the fact that the Padres hadn't announced an Opening Day starter until Tuesday, but the LA Dodgers are priced far too low on both major sites given their draw with Jhoulys Chacin in Los Angeles. The Dodgers finished 2016 with the second best wRC+ (109), 6th best OPS (.772) and 7th best ISO (.177) against RHP, so there isn't a good reason for the heart of their order to be priced as value plays. Adrian Gonzalez, Yasmani Grandal, Logan Forsythe and Joc Pederson are all priced at $2,800 on FanDuel, making each of them elite $/point options on FanDuel. Corey Seager and Justin Turner are priced appropriately on FanDuel, but they are both still strong plays for what should be one of the highest scoring offenses of the day. On DraftKings, Seager and Yasiel Puig are the only Dodger bats priced above $4K, so we'll want to load up on LA there as well, especially at catcher with Yasmani Grandal sitting at just $3,400. Bats in the PHI/CIN game also provide ample value with Scott Feldman and Jeremy Hellickson facing off. Odubel Herrera is the top overall play on the Philly side, but he's still priced modestly on both major sites and has fared significantly better against RHP over the course of his career (.359 wOBA, 124 wRC+ in 2016 vs. RHP compared to .275/68 vs. LHP). Maikel Franco is priced at just $2,900 on FanDuel where he provides excellent value, but his $4,200 price tag on DK isn't quite as appealing. If Cesar Hernandez finds himself in the leadoff spot on Monday afternoon, he'll also be a strong punt play industry wide. Last but not least on the Philly side is Tommy Joseph, who is an excellent GPP option on FanDuel at just $2,100 given the power upside he provides (.235 ISO vs. RHP in 2016). Speaking of power upside, Michael Saunders would also be a punt option if he's able to hit in the top six of the Philly order on Opening Day. As for the Reds, they're an intriguing team target up and down the lineup. Joey Votto, Billy Hamilton and Adam Duvall are all elite options against Hellickson, with Jose Peraza being one of the sneakier targets on the Cincinnati side thanks to his ability to rack up stolen bases. It's looking very much like Peraza will slot into one of the top two slots in the batting order.

Tyler Chatwood gets the ball for the Rockies, and he fits right into the theme of the night with a mediocre overall pitching profile that includes a 4.69 SIERA, a 10.4% walk rate, and a subpar 16.7% strikeout rate. Chatwood does have a healthy ground ball rate (56.7%) and is relatively splits-neutral, so it’s difficult to load up on bats against him. We can’t viably look to use Chatwood in a road matchup against the streaking Dodgers. Although, Chase Utley is very cheap on FanDuel and DraftKings and makes for a solid play batting from the leadoff spot. Adrian Gonzalez (129 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .181 ISO vs RHP) and Yasmani Grandal (.266 ISO vs RHP) also seem to be reasonably priced, and, of course, Corey Seager (164 wRC+, .411 wOBA, .227 ISO vs RHP) is always an elite option at shortstop.

Shelby Miller was sent to AAA, after a forgettable start to the season, where it appears he may have figured some things out with a 26.3% strikeout rate and 4.8% walk rate. His first start back in the majors was decent, allowing two runs in six innings, but only managed three strikeouts against the Giants. For the year, Miller has a 12.2% strikeout rate, 12.8% walk rate with a 39.3% hard hit rate and a 5.94 xFIP against left-handed batters. The Dodgers can run out an impressive string of left-handed bats with all of Yasmani Grandal, Adrian Gonzalez (134 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .193 ISO), Corey Seager, and Joc Pederson (139 wRC+, .374 wOBA, .264 ISO) have above average hard hit rates against righties. The two bats we're most interested in are Corey Seager (161 wRC+, .407 wOBA, .232 ISO vs RHP) and Yasmani Grandal ((128 wRC+, .358 wOBA, .281 ISO vs RHP).