Tommy Milone Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Lineup note: Tommy Milone will start for the Mariners on Friday.

Tommy Milone has allowed just three runs in 15.1 innings against Houston this year, seemingly the only LHP in baseball who’s held them in check (134 wRC+, 6.1 K-BB% vs LHP). On second check though, he’s struck out just 10 of 58 Astros and his 38.2 GB% suggests some luck that they’ve only left the yard once against him. In fact, Milone has allowed 10.2% Barrels/BBE despite an 86.7 mph aEV. His strikeouts have dropped to just 12% over the last month (23 IP), a period over which his xwOBA has climbed to .341. He’s allowed three home runs in five of his last nine outings. It would be quite the shock should he repeat past accomplishments against this dominant Houston offense. The Astros don’t yet have a team run line because the Mariners haven’t announced tonight’s opener, but there’s a good chance they’re at the top of the board. The negative run environment in Houston is not much of a penalty tonight without very many extremely positive run environments in play tonight and some difficult weather conditions around the league. The firm of Altuve (199 wRC+, .336 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Bregman (182 wRC+, .327 ISO) and Gurriel (132 wRC+, .278 ISO) should feast and the fact that LHBs (.353 wOBA, .343 xwOBA) have hit Milone harder than RHBs (.312 wOBA, .317 xwOBA), along with the likelihood of a right-handed opener, certainly keeps Michael Brantley (122 wRC+, 104 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Yordan Alvarez (168 wRC+, .359 ISO) in play as well. Look for the Astros to get some pay back on Milone tonight.

Tommy Milone is another pitcher that has made some clear adjustments in 2019 and has so far been much more effective. Over 32 2/3 innings in 2019 he has a 3.03 ERA, 4.05 xFIP and 3.66 SIERA with a 25.4% K rate, 4% BB rate and 10.2% SwStr. More impressively, Statcast has him at a .273 xwOBA allowed, 9% barrel rate and 87.1 MPH aEV. So, what has changed? Milone has decreased his four seamer usage from 58.6% to 40% this year. He’s increased is changeup usage to 36.9%, which so far has just a .190 xwOBA allowed. He’s also completely ditched the sinker and cutter, which he threw (ineffectively) in past years. Milone gets a matchup with the Orioles who have an ugly 83 wRC+ and 25.7% K rate vs. left-handed pitching in 2019. They’ve also been cold with a 2nd worst .270 xwOBA over the past 14 days. Milone will have the benefit of pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park in his favor and will cost just $7.9k on Draftkings and $7.1k on Fanduel. There aren’t many good pitching options on the afternoon slate, so it isn’t likely that Milone flies under the radar in this matchup.

In two starts so far in 2019, Milone has pitched to a solid 3.38 ERA / 3.24 xFIP and 11 K/9. However, Milone hasn’t put up a respectable season since 2015 and still projects as a roughly 5 ERA pitcher by most projection systems. He also had a 5.49 xFIP in 49 innings at the AAA level this year and is still averaging 88 MPH on his fastball. Mike Trout (.417 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Albert Pujols (.395), Kole Calhoun (.355), David Fletcher (.353), Tommy La Stella (.345), Shohei Ohtani (.344) and Jonathan Lucroy (.333) have all been above average vs. LHP this year and are projected to be in the LAA lineup. Cesar Puello has been the Angels’ hottest hitter with a .559 xwOBA over the past 10 days. The Angels have a 4.63 implied line vs. Milone and the Angels, which feels a tad low.

Tommy Milone has had an interesting changeup this year, thrown about 40% of the time to RHBs through three starts with a 41.5% whiff rate. He also threw 39 fastballs to right-handed Braves last time out and three of them left the yard. Despite the success of that pitch, RHBs still have a .437 wOBA against Milone since last season and even though xwOBA drops that 90 points, .347 is still not an enviable number. The Cardinals have three RHBs who have hammered LHP in varying sample sizes over the last calendar year in Jose Martinez (164 wRC+, .230 ISO), Jedd Gyorko (185 wRC+, .291 ISO) and Harrison Bader (166 wRC+, .266 ISO). Competent or better bats against southpaws with more advantageous lineup positions include Matt Carpenter (130 wRC+, .267 ISO) from the left side, along with Yadier Molina (105 wRC+, .191 ISO), Marcell Ozuna (123 wRC+, .169 ISO) and Paul DeJong (90 wRC+, .184 ISO). The Cardinals, as a team, have a 16.7 HR/FB against LHP despite the power suppressing park and Tommy Milone is a fly ball pitcher. The Cardinals could go under-owned with three or four teams above their 4.56 implied run line.

The FanDuel main afternoon slate kicks off at noon and includes the first four games, while the DraftKings main afternoon slate skips the noon start between the Mets and the Nationals. Both teams are hovering around the middle of the board, one-tenth of a point removed from 4.25 implied runs. Tommy Milone was decent enough in his first start against the Marlins (5 IP - 3 ER - 0 BB - 6 K), but in 53.1 major league innings since last season, RHBs have torched him for a .440 wOBA (.394 xwOBA) on just a 36.4 GB%. In addition, Kevin reports a healthy wind blowing out 10-15 mph (direction not noted) on a humid afternoon. This part is easy enough. Amed Rosario (84 wRC+, .163 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Austin Jackson (119 wRC+, .101 ISO), Wilmer Flores (92 wRC+, .165 ISO) and Jose Bautista (114 wRC+, .211 ISO) comprise four of the first five spots in the lineup and are all below $3K. Jackson costs the minimum. The other side of this is a bit trickier. The Mets threw nearly every pitcher they have plus Jose Reyes at the Nationals last night. The bullpen is exhausted. Noah Syndergaard is returning from a virus and my not be built up to go deep into this game, so he's probably not an ideal option at $9.5K. One guy who did not appear and is likely to throw a few innings under most scenarios is Seth Lugo. He's thrown just 2.2 innings over the last week. Considering Syndergaard may not be in top form, the Nationals have wisely utilized their speed at the top of the order today with Adam Eaton (142 wRC+, .119 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Trea Turner (104 wRC+, .170 ISO). If nothing else, even at his best, Syndergaard can be run on liberally.

There are no...pitchers above $10K on either site, 25% strikeout rates, or offenses below 3.6 implied runs tonight. Tonight's pitching options are difficult at best. The top five strikeout rates on the board are Rich Hill (25.8%), Trevor Cahill (24.3%), Anibal Sanchez (24.2%), Kyle Gibson (23.6%) and Nick Kingham (22.7%). Hill has workload issues and is facing the Braves (116 wRC+, 19.7 K% vs LHP), but should probably still be considered for $9K on this slate. Cahill is facing an offense with a 25.3 K% vs RHP, but does so in Texas. Sanchez gets the Dodgers (111 wRC+ vs RHP), Gibson has the Red Sox at Fenway and Kingham hosts the Mets (92 wRC+, 21.9 K% vs RHP). He's gone at least six innings in four of his last five starts, allowing seven HRs over that span though. Never the less, he may be an answer as the second most expensive pitcher on either site. The other thing to consider is that there are just two extremely negative run environments on the board in Miami and San Francisco. The first pits Tommy Milone against Dan Straily. Straily has just a 17 K% over the last month, but has gone at least six innings in five straight and has a .273 xwOBA over the last 30 days that's 100 points below his season average. The Washington lineup is dangerous, but he gets to face them in a power suppressing park for $7K or less. Milone is interesting because of a 19.9 K-BB% in 20 AAA starts this year, but he has just a 10.8% mark over 736 major league innings and has never reached a 20 K% in any season. He's not available on FanDuel. San Francisco looks like the destination for daily fantasy pitching tonight. Derek Rodriguez (18.9 K%, 4.25 SIERA, .306 xwOBA). He's completed six innings in six of eight starts and the Brewers should supply some upside (25.3 K%), while their power (16.3 HR/FB vs RHP) should be tempered by the park. Wade Miley (14.7 K%, 5.55 SIERA, .317 xwOBA) is much less exciting, but doesn't allow too much hard contact and keeps the ball on the ground (56.9%).