Drew Pomeranz Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

With many safer and more obvious SP options on the slate, it’s very possible that Drew Pomeranz goes overlooked despite a cheap price and good matchup. Pomeranz has admittedly had a rough year that has seen him post a 6.25 ERA, but a 4.43 xFIP, 15.7% K-BB, and 4.43 SIERA prove that he’s had a bit of bad luck. Over the past month, Pomeranz has looked vastly improved with a 3.33 ERA, 3.58 xFIP and 3.67 SIERA with a 31% K rate, 8.2% BB rate and .308 xwOBA allowed. Pomeranz gets a matchup at home in pitcher’s haven Oracle Park tonight versus the Cardinals, who have a league-worst 72 wRC+ over the past 30 days. Overall, the Cardinals have a 93 wRC+ and 20.7% K rate vs. left-handed pitching on the year. The Cardinals projected lineup contains just one batter (Tommy Edman) who has an xwOBA above .335 over the past 14 days. Pomeranz is just $6.8k on Draftkings / $7.3k on Fanduel and has immense upside for his price given his improvements over the past month (especially the 31% K rate) along with the matchup tonight. The Cardinals currently have a 4.25 implied line vs. Pomeranz and the Giants.

Drew Pomeranz has allowed at least five runs in three of his last four starts, lasting less than three innings against such offensive stalwarts as the Reds, Diamondbacks and Orioles. In fact, he’s allowed three HRs even in four home starts this season and hasn’t even completed five innings since April. His ERA and DRA are both above eight this season. The Dodgers aren’t as good against LHP as RHP, but are still above average and while San Francisco is a negative power and run environment, it’s a bit more forgiving to RH power. RHBs have a .418 wOBA against Pomeranz over the last 12 months. Do not be afraid to look to look for offense in a tough west coast park with Enrique Hernandez (132 wRC+, .210 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Justin Turner (151 wRC+, .243 ISO) and David Freese (170 wRC+, .237 ISO).

Drew Pomeranz has been pretty bad this year with a 5.66 ERA / 4.69 xFIP / 4.78 SIERA, a 40.4% hard contact rate, 11.3% walk rate and an 8.5% SwStr. His Statcast numbers aren’t great either, with a .353 xwOBA allowed on the year with a 88.2 aEV and 9.6% barrel rate. The D-backs aren’t a terribly great offense, but their 3.68 total feels entirely too low, even in an extreme pitcher’s park at Oracle Park. Christian Walker (.377 xwOBA since 2018 vs. LHP), Ketel Marte (.363), Adam Jones (.335) and Eduardo Escobar (.321) are all good options that project to hit in the top 5 of the D-Backs’ order. Ildemaro Vargas projects to leadoff at $3.3k, but is just a 35 wRC+ hitter in the majors. Carson Kelly has been the hottest hitter with a .411 xwOBA over the past 10 days, although with just 15 plate appearances. With the exception of Escobar, all D-Backs bats are available for $4.4k or less and will almost certainly come with extremely low ownership.

While there are certainly some recognizable names on the Friday night board, guys like Eduardo Rodriguez, Jake Arrieta, Zack Wheeler, and J.A. Happ have all gotten off to concerning starts. This could be a slate where players might be rewarded for taking some chances, especially on a two pitcher site like DraftKings. Drew Pomeranz has performed marginally through two starts (4.00 ERA, 3 HRs), but against difficult offenses (Dodgers, Rays). The encouraging news here is that his velocity is back up to early 2017 levels after a disastrous latter part of that year and all of 2018. Pomeranz has struck out 26.2% of batters so far with a surprising 55.6 GB%. While the HRs and 14.8% Barrels/BBE are concerning, he’ll be facing a Rockies’ lineup (38 wRC+ on the road, 51 wRC+ vs LHP so far) that Jeff Samardzija mowed down last night in a great park. Pomeranz is priced at $8.1K on DraftKings (just $6.5K on FanDuel), but does compare favorably to some similar or even more highly priced pitchers in a favorable spot.

No pitcher on the board exceeds or even comes close to meeting Drew Pomeranz's 11.4% Barrels/BBE this year and only one pitcher slightly beats his 89.8 mph aEV. While his curveball usage generally gives him a reverse split, RHBs have a .411 wOBA with all nine of his HRs surrendered this year. The Phillies have just two batters in the lineup above both a 60 wRC+ and .133 ISO vs LHP this year and a modest 4.58 implied run line considering the most positive run environment on the board. Rhys Hoskins (132 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Carlos Santana (124 wRC+, .204 ISO) should be considered high quality assets tonight with Cesar Hernandez (120 wRC+, .113 ISO) and Asdrubal Cabrera (122 wRC+, .133 ISO) playable middle infield options with less power.