Nathan Eovaldi Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

A lot of your top projected values are also some of tonight’s highest priced and top projected arms overall, though there are a few exceptions. A top three projected value and top five projected overall arm on either site by PlateIQ, Nathan Eovaldi could be included in that expensive group, but does cost less than $9K on DraftKings. Oakland was certainly the cure for his home run problems, as he failed to allow one for only the second time this year last time out. Eovaldi’s 22.1 K-BB% is more than a full point improvement on last season, but he’s allowing barrels at twice the rate (12.2%) and has already surpassed his 2021 home run total with 16. His average exit velocity (91.4 mph) is up over three full miles per hour. An 88.2 LOB% means a 3.41 ERA is just a bit above contact neutral estimators, though the FIP and xERA both exceed four. The Angels will be a more difficult matchup (109 wRC+, 13.5 HR/FB vs RHP) and park than Oakland, but it does have some upside (25.1 K% vs RHP) and just got a lot easier with Mike Trout exiting last night’s game due to a leg injury.

The top projected point per dollar value for less than $7K on DraftKings and also a top five projected value for less than $8K on FanDuel is Ian Anderson, who struck out a season high nine of 27 Rockies at Coors his last time out, but perhaps more importantly, it came with just a single walk. Even with that performance, he holds just a 9.1 K-BB% on the season with a 45.1 GB% that’s more than three points below his career average, though it hasn’t affected the rate of barrels he’s allowed (4.9%). The bottom line is that because he continues to suppress barrels, a 3.83 xERA is well below additional estimators, which are all otherwise within half a run of his 4.70 ERA. So if it’s not his own performance or the park (Atlanta) that we like here, it must be the matchup. It certainly is, as the A’s own a 71 wRC+ and 24.4 K% vs RHP. Over the last week, they have a team 36 wRC+, 28.1 K% and 2.2 HR/FB.

Alex Wood ($7.3K) is the top projected value on FanDuel tonight, though just a middle of the board one for much more on DraftKings. He is producing the same mid-rotation quality work he did last year with a 16.6 K-BB% and just 6.9% Barrels/BBE with a small drop in ground ball rate (47.6%). Wood doesn’t have a Quality Start because of a .353 BABIP and also because the Giants haven’t allowed him to complete six innings yet, but every single estimator is more than half a run below his 4.66 ERA. However, the Rockies have a 109 wRC+ and 19.1 K% vs LHP this season and ran Carlos Rodon out of the game after just four innings last night by fouling off 33 of his 98 pitches.

Not projected particularly strongly, Chris Bassitt may be under-valued at just $8.2K on DraftKings. With seven home runs allowed on just eight barrels over his last four starts, Chris Bassitt is up to a 15.7 HR/FB on the season, but a 3.74 ERA well below his 4.45 FIP due to an 80.8 LOB%. He’s pretty much in line with additional estimators, ranging from a 3.42 DRA to a 3.78 xFIP with his usually solid peripherals (17.3 K-BB%). He has struggled against some of the better offenses in the league recently (Giants, Dodgers, Cardinals), but has allowed a total of seven runs to everyone else. The Padres are certainly not one of the better offenses in the league this year (86 wRC+, 22.8 K%, 6.6 HR/FB vs RHP).

Looking for a sub-$7K pitcher in your SP2 spot on DraftKings? As mentioned, Ian Anderson fits that bill, as do several other arms, but Dane Dunning, Jordan Lyles and Marcus Stroman all carry significant weather concern. Dunning has struck out at least five in eight straight starts and it’s not that his strikeout rate (24%) is increasing, but his workload certainly is. He’s completed six innings five times over his last seven starts, while maintaining the quality of work he produced last year in shorter starts with 51.7% of his contact on the ground and an exceptional 29.2 Z-O-Swing%. All estimators are below Dunning’s 4.11 ERA. Stroman has his season strikeout rate up to 22.7%, but with just a 9.3 SwStr% and career low 41.7 GB%. In fact, he’s never generated less than half his contact on the ground in a season, but has only generated more than that in one of his last eight starts. It makes sense, as he’s throwing a career low 32% sinkers. The end result, with a 91.3 mph EV, has been a 17.4 HR/FB, but the real problem has been a 25.2 LD%, though batters have just a .286 BABIP against him. The main culprit for his 5.32 ERA is a 57.7 LOB%. As one might expect, contact inclusive estimators exceed four, while contact neutral ones are below four. Lyles has allowed 23 runs over his last 36 innings, but only 18 earned. Add in a .351 BABIP and his 4.50 ERA for the season is above all estimators except for a 5.10 ERA with 9.2% Barrels/BBE. Striking out just six of his last 45 has dropped his strikeout rate to 19.9% (9.6 SwStr%), but a 12.9 K-BB% is competent enough for the Orioles to let him eat up innings for a team going nowhere with a lot of younger arms they’d rather conserve.

Despite the top four projected point per dollar values on FanDuel costing $8.8K or less, players may be more inclined to pay up for pitching tonight. Nathan Eovaldi ($8.8K) may be the exception, as he projects as a top value on either site ($8K DK) in a matchup that really lowers the risk on his largest issue this season. While he has actually increased his K-BB (21.3%), he’s already allowed one more home run that last season. In fact, Eovaldi’s 16 home runs are the second highest total allowed in his career. Pitchers generally don’t see 80% of their barrels leave the yard, but 12% Barrels/BBE nearly doubles his career rate (6.6%), while a 91.7 mph EV is also a career high by nearly a full mph. The obvious result is contact neutral estimators below his 3.77 ERA and contact inclusive ones above. However, tonight the Red Sox are in Oakland, which is not only a massive park upgrade, especially from a power suppressing standpoint, but the A’s have a 75 wRC+, 23.9 K% and 7.5 HR/FB vs RHP.

The good news for DraftKings players is that there are plenty of cheap pitchers who project as great values, who can be paired with higher priced arms. The top projected value on DraftKings is currently Zach Eflin for just $6.1K. Outside his 12 strikeouts against the Dodgers two starts back, he has not exceeded five in any of his other seven starts. So, while we have to take even his 21.6 K% with a grain of salt right now, a 5.1 BB%, 83.9 mph EV and 5.4% Barrels/BBE are all driving estimators that are a run or more below his 4.60 ERA (59.1 LOB%). He’s completed six innings in four of his last five. The park is difficult and the Angels are potent, but also strike out a ton against RHP (116 wRC+, 14.6 HR/FB, 24.9 K%). Eflin’s too cheap here.

Yusei Kikuchi ($6.5K) also projects as a strong value on FanDuel ($8.0K). After getting through a murderous schedule of predominantly right-handed mashing lineups in April, Yusei Kikuchi has allowed just four runs over his last 15.1 innings against more marginal ones, while striking out 17 of 66 batters. Consider that he may be a bit better than season estimators above four and 11.8% Barrels/BBE with an 11.1 K-BB% when a lot of his stats have been compiled against the Yankees, Astros and Red Sox (six starts). Not that the Mariners, Angels or even Twins tonight (106 wRC+, 20.7 K% vs LHP) have been easy matchups this season either.

James Kaprielian also projects as a top value on either site for $6.2K or less. In fact, he currently projects as the top FanDuel value. He has struck out three or fewer in four of his six starts with 13 of his 21 strikeouts coming in his other two. With just an 8.5 K-BB% and 9.4% Barrels/BBE, his best estimator is a 4.78 SIERA through six starts, even if all are better than his 5.93 ERA. However, he pitches in a great park and his numbers were much better last season (16.3 K-BB%). The Red Sox have a 104 wRC+ and just 20.9 K% vs RHP.

A lot of fun at the top of the board with several big name pitchers pitching in games with major playoff implications tonight, but now we have to answer the question if there’s anything useful below them. Alex Wood is below $8K on either site in a strong matchup in another game with major playoff implications. He has struck out 11 of 29 batters without a walk in two starts back from the IL and probably needs one more start to be back to a normal workload though, with 61 pitches last time out. It’s been a strong season for him with a 19.0 K-BB%, 50.7 GB% and 5.5% Barrels/BBE. His 4.00 ERA is above all estimators, most by nearly half a run, but none by more than half a run. Is he cheap enough to be DFS useful with an assumed 75-80 pitch count tonight? He pitches in a negative run environment and may be slightly weather aided (Weather Edge), while Arizona has a 78 wRC+ on the road, but 98 wRC+ vs LHP, although nobody in the projected lineup exceeds a 19.8 K% against LHP. That last factor in addition to the limited workload likely rules Wood out.

Luis Garcia has struck out just six of his last 67 batters with eight walks. This is obviously concerning, but his season numbers are still stellar (26.4 K%, 5.7% Barrels/BBE) with all estimators below four. In a neutral park against a good offense (Rays 110 wRC+ vs RHP), it’s tough to trust a pitcher who generally doesn’t go deep in games for more than $8K here. Max Fried is near $9K on both sites and offers enough strikeouts (23.7%) with good control (6.4 BB%) and lots of weak (86.5 mph EV) ground balls (51.5%). His worst estimator is a 3.79 SIERA. However, he pitches in an unfavorable run environment with only two batters in the opposing lineup above an 18.5 K% vs LHP this year. Elieser Hernandez is less than $7.5K with a league average strikeout rate (22.9 K%) in a weather aided negative run environment against an average offense (Mets 97 wRC+ vs RHP) with marginal strikeout rates, but the contact profile is a problem. He’s allowed 12 home runs (20.3 HR/FB) on 13 barrels (9.2%) in 46.2 innings. Zach Plesac had allowed 20 home runs over his last 107.1 innings this season, but two over his last 29.1 innings, while bumping his strikeout rate up to 20.8% with an 11.7 SwStr% over that span as well. Unfortunately, he has just a 17.2 K% on the season, resulting in a 4.54 ERA that runs very close to his estimators. However, he doesn’t cost much more than $7K in a neutral run environment and five in the projected opposing lineup above a 26 K% vs RHP.

Logan Gilbert is $100 to $200 above $7.5K. You wouldn’t know it by his 4.83 ERA, but Gilbert has had a very successful rookie season going by a 20.4 K-BB%. The contact profile isn’t ideal (89.9 mph EV, 33 GB%), but his worst estimator is still a better than average 4.11 xFIP. He pitches in a great park with a marginal matchup (A’s 102 wRC+ vs RHP) with four batters in the projected opposing lineup exceeding a 25 K% vs RHP. If you’re dropping below $8K, Gilbert is probably your top option.

A bit more expensively, but still below $9K, Nathan Eovaldi had a 33.3 K% (4.2 BB%) in the eight starts leading up to his last start. He proceeded to face 17 Yankees, putting nine on base with seven crossing the plate without a single strikeout and two walks. A 93.4 mph EV was his second highest single game average this season (his highest was also against the Yankees). Even if we consider this last start a blip and base our decision on a 20.8 K-BB%, 6.4% Barrels/BBE and estimators no higher than a 3.62 SIERA, we have to note that Eovaldi has only completed six innings in four of his last 11 starts. He’s also pitching in a tough park with an unfriendly umpire, but the Orioles have just an 86 wRC+ vs RHP and there is just one batter in the projected lineup below a 23.5 K% vs RHP.

Lastly, purely as an SP2 option on DraftKings, Taijuan Walker has allowed an astonishing 20 home runs on 28 barrels (15.9%) over his last 56.2 innings pitched (6.99 ERA/7.08 FIP). His 4.57 ERA on the season correlates very closely with all non-DRA estimators. However, he costs less than $7K in a tremendous spot in a great park. The Marlins have an 80 wRC+ on the road, 87 wRC+ vs RHP and five batters in the projected Miami lineup exceed a 25 K% vs RHP.

Despite a 14 game slate on Friday night, three pitchers reach the $10K price point on FanDuel, while a different one is the only one to reach exactly $10K on DraftKings tonight. The most expensive pitcher on the board is Shohei Ohtani on FanDuel ($10.8K). Although he still struck out seven of 20, it was the Orioles, of all teams, who broke up a run six straight quality starts with two runs or fewer since last facing the Yankees. The three home runs surrendered in Baltimore were Ohtani’s first multi-home run start of the season. Since walking four of nine Yankees, Ohtani has walked just four of his last 168 batters, dropping his season rate to 9.2%, increasing his K-BB above 20% and pushing his estimators no higher than a 3.66 SIERA. Ohtani gets the Rangers (78 wRC+ on the road, 86 wRC+ vs RHP) at home. Four of nine projected Texas bats exceed a 25.5 K% vs RHP with only two below 22.7%. This is a high upside spot for Ohtani, while he’s a much better value for more than $2K less on DraftKings. Paying that higher price may be difficult though, when there are other pitchers who may be just as good tonight.

Freddy Peralta lasted two innings in an August 18th start, hitting the IL with a shoulder injury. Thankfully for the Brewers, it was short enough that he didn’t even need a rehab start, but having not gone beyond 43 pitches in over three weeks might limit him somewhat here. You can’t argue with 34 K% and 86.4 mph EV (5.4% Barrels/BBE), but the workload concerns, unless we hear otherwise, probably write him off as the second most expensive pitcher on the board ($10.2K FD).

Eight of Alex Manoah’s 14 starts have been quality starts. With a 27.9 K% (19.8 K-BB%) and 86.6 mph EV (6.9% Barrels/BBE), it’s hard to find a major flaw in his profile, even if his 3.15 ERA is more than half a run below all non-xERA estimators, the worst being a 3.95 xFIP. That said, is he really a $10K pitcher, especially in a neutral park against the A’s (103 wRC+ vs RHP, just two batters above a 21.1 K% vs RHP in the projected lineup)? He has four starts with at least eight strikeouts, but also five or less in half of them.

Age is just a number to Adam Wainwright. While we’re at it, here are some more numbers: eight straight quality starts with fewer than seven innings or more than two runs in just one each, a 16.9 K-BB% and 6.5% Barrels/BBE. A 79.3 LOB% bears some of the responsibility for a 2.97 ERA, but while none of his estimators are below three and a half, none are a full run above his ERA either. A neutral park in Milwaukee, the Brewers have an 88 wRC+ at home and 94 wRC+ vs RHP. Just three batters in the projected home lineup exceed a 21 K% vs RHP, but Wainwright may be your best quality start bet on the board. You’re going to get a heavy workload out of him as the fifth most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, though he may not be the best value as the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings.

The last pitcher to mention and only other one on the slate above $9K on both sites, is Nathan Eovaldi, who is the second most expensive arm on DraftKings ($9.8K). Evovaldi has overcome a rough patch following the break with just six runs allowed (five earned) over his last 24.1 innings, striking out 30 of 95 batters with just two walks. His 3.71 ERA is now within one-quarter of a run of all non-FIP estimators, while a contact profile that includes just 6.4% Barrels/BBE certainly helps. While Fenway is a positive run environment, Cleveland has an 88 wRC+ on the road, 90 wRC+ vs RHP and half the projected lineup exceeds a 30 K% vs RHP this year. Considering the potential upside in the opposing lineup, Eovaldi has a chance to be the top pitcher on the board tonight and a great value for $9.1K on FanDuel.

Nathan Eovaldi has allowed 11 ERs over his last 14.1 IP, but also has a 28.4 K% and 13.3 SwStr% over the last 30 days. His SIERA and xFIP are over a run below his 6.03 ERA, but still around four and a half while his FIP and DRA are near six. Even over the last month, his .329 xwOBA is 43 points better than actual results, yet still merely league average. His 90.7 mph aEV is worst on the board among those with more than a few starts, but he’s in a favorable spot against the Orioles (87 wRC+, 15.2 K-BB% vs RHP) and even reached 100 pitches last time out. It all looks very marginal until you see Eovaldi’s price tag on DraftKings ($4.1K), which likely makes him the top value on the board. Taking Eovaldi along with another mid-range pitcher would allow players to stack Coors (Brewers) and Texas (Yankees) bats tonight fairly comfortably.

Nathan Eovaldi gets a start tonight versus the Orioles at home and is dirt cheap on Draftkings ($4100) and cheap on Fanduel as well ($6500). Eovaldi has now made 7 starts since transitioning to the rotation, his most recent one coming against the Rays where he threw 6 innings, striking out 6 and allowing 3 earned runs. He has a middling 4.20 xFIP / 4.40 SIERA over the past month, but also has a very good 28.4% K rate that gives him lots of upside. The Orioles have just a 87 wRC+ with a 22.8% K rate vs. RHP on the year. They also have a .316 xwOBA vs. RHP over the past month. On Draftkings, Eovaldi is a no-brainer play as he is projected as the best PTS/$ play by far, on a slate that is very depleted of pitching options. Expect him to see very high ownership. He is also a great play on Fanduel even at an increased price. The Orioles currently have a 4.41 implied total vs. Eovaldi and the Red Sox.