ShotQuality Advanced Analytics: Prop Betting Model
How The ShotQuality Prop Betting Model Works
ShotQuality is the leading basketball advanced analytics company that has created propriety metrics that evaluate the quality of a basketball shots through the analysis of player and shot location data. It aims to provide insights into how well players and teams are performing based on the quality of their shot attempts and the process of their play rather than just the result.
Using this data, we developed a prop model that analyzes player stat predictions based on the ShotQuality projections model. We use a simulated distribution of outcomes based on a series of inputs and assess the probability of eclipsing a threshold set by the sportsbook. We then compare these probabilities to the implied probability to select a preferred side for the metric.
What factors do you consider?
The model uses ShotQuality analytics to help assess the expected statistical outcome of each player. This includes the expected game environment, scoring environment, defensive matchup, pace of play, and expected team usage dynamics specific to the upcoming game. We also use the ShotQuality projections to assess which players will be expected to play and the expected time on court for each. The factors are processed into a range of outcomes used to assess each potential bet.
How many bets are evaluated?
This model analyzes all available prop lines across the categories we have access to. For convenience, we update and display the top 50 available bets per the model.
How often is the model updated?
This page is updated at least once every 10 minutes, beginning as early in the day as possible. It is worth noting that the results could change throughout the day based on the market and the expected game conditions.
Find The ShotQuality Totals Betting Model Here!
| PLAYER NAME | TEAM | STAT | BOOK | LINE | SIDE | WINPCT | EDGE | GRADE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Gordon | DEN | Threes | bet365 | 1.5 | under | 54.14% | 12.47% | ★★★☆☆ |
| Joel Embiid | PHI | Threes | betmgm | 1.5 | under | 74.43% | 8.92% | ★★½☆☆ |
| Tre Jones | CHI | Threes | bet365 | 0.5 | over | 47.14% | 8.67% | ★★½☆☆ |
| Oso Ighodaro | PHO | Assists | bet365 | 1.5 | over | 50.08% | 8.41% | ★★½☆☆ |
| Paolo Banchero | ORL | Points, Rebounds, & Assists | fanduel | 39.5 | under | 60.53% | 8.15% | ★★½☆☆ |
| Tim Hardaway | DEN | Threes | bet365 | 1.5 | under | 54.27% | 7.76% | ★★½☆☆ |
Make better NBA bets using the ShotQuality advanced metrics-based system
- To access this content, subscribe to ShotQuality or purchase a 3-day trial.
- A subscription will allow you to access this content and much more!
About the Author
ShotQuality is a basketball analytics platform that leverages computer vision and player location data to evaluate shot selection rather than just outcomes. Their unique approach cuts through recency bias, allowing you to better predict future performance. Their core metrics generate expected probabilities for every shot in every game, providing you with the predictive basketball toolkit needed to enhance decision-making in daily fantasy sports and sports betting.