ShotQuality Advanced Analytics: Totals Betting Model

The model uses ShotQuality analytics to assess a team and opponent baseline on both offense and defense. We also use the ShotQuality projections to assess which players will be expected to play tonight and the expected time on court for each. From there, we layer on an effect for each player on both offense and defense that contributes to the models understanding of the game environment. A sophisticated simulation is the executed in order to determine the probability if scoring over or under each benchmark assigned by the sportsbook.

You should take our recommended picks as the starting point of your own research. We can’t promise they will always win — but backtesting has shown a small advantage against the house in a somewhat challenging market. The model demonstrated a 2.5% return on investment (ROI) when backtested on game total bets. A 67/33 train/test split was applied, conducted randomly across ten unique iterations, and the 2.5% ROI represents the average performance across these test splits. Bets were only tracked when the ROI quality threshold was eclipsed. The model is currently in BETA mode and undergoing continuous improvement.”

This page is updated at least once every 10 minutes, beginning as early in the day as possible. It is worth noting that the results could change throughout the day based on the market and the expected game conditions.